After five months of free agency uncertainty, Ezekiel Elliott has finally found a new team. The long-time Cowboy has moved from "America's Team" to "America's most hated team": Bill Belichick's New England Patriots. Let's assess Zeke's value in 2023 fantasy football drafts, how his usage and production will affect Rhamondre Stevenson, and which round each RB should ultimately be selected.
This marks one of the biggest star free agent acquisitions in the Belichick era, right up there with Darrelle Revis, Stephon Gilmore, and Rodney Harrison. In some ways, it reminds New Englanders of the trade that landed Randy Moss with the Pats on the second day of the 2007 NFL Draft.
Belichick doesn't sign big-name guys unless he likes them — a lot. A move to sign a former All-Pro, three-time Pro Bowler, and Rookie of the Year follows months of Pats beat writers suggesting the team wanted a reliable RB2 behind Stevenson. In his 2022 sophomore season, 'Mondre tallied 699 snaps, 298 opportunities, and 279 touches for 1,461 scrimmage yards.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
Feed Zeke in Foxboro 🍽️ pic.twitter.com/JDrlxeucTd
— NFL (@NFL) August 14, 2023
The consensus around Pats camp: Bill and company did not want Stevenson seeing that kind of usage or touch share in his third season. Belichick loves Stevenson — he's perhaps already one of his five favorite running backs during his 23-year tenure in Foxboro — so he probably won't run the 25-year-old Oklahoma product into the ground as he's entering his prime.
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
What will Ezekiel Elliott's role be in New England?
The short answer: Elliott will be a complementary piece to Stevenson, Belichick's main rushing cog in the backfield. Much like the three-time Pro Bowler ultimately took a backseat to the emergent Tony Pollard in Dallas last season, Zeke will likely exist as a third-down, short-yardage, and goal-line option for the Patriots.
Now, that's not necessarily terrible news for Elliott owners. Bill loves running the ball in the scoring zone, as evidenced by the Pats running the ball 67 of the 113 times they snapped the ball inside their opponents' red zone last season (a nearly 60-percent red-zone run rate). Eleven of those 67 red-zone carries resulted in touchdowns, but guess how many red-zone TDs Stevenson accumulated? Three.
That's not a typo. Three TDs in 31 red-zone carries and 19 attempts within opponents' 10-yard lines. Stevenson's running mate Damien Harris had the same amount of TDs in 13 fewer tries inside the opponents' 10. Rookie RBs Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong both had a red-zone TD, as well, despite both first-year backs only garnering three total attempts in that area all season.
Long story short: Belichick will be using Elliott in these short-yardage and goal-line situations. Past data tells us that Bill loves bringing in an energized powerful back to get those tough yards to move the chains or ram into the end zone. Elliott — who produced 52 first downs and 12 TDs in just 231 carries last year — can do both those things. With 1-3 yards to go last season, he converted first downs or TDs in 42 of 49 carries (85.7-percent conversion rate). Bump it up to 4-6 yards, and he was 11-of-28 (under 40-percent).
UPDATE (8/30): After a classic round of Bill Belichick roster cuts, Stevenson and Zeke are the only two RBs listed on the Patriots depth chart. This won't be the case come next Sunday, but we can rest assure that these two RBs will be the main cogs in the backfield as long as they're healthy.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
How will Ezekiel Elliott signing affect Rhamondre Stevenson's fantasy value?
We're bullish on Stevenson. He started in our third tier of RBs, and he remains in that tier today after the Elliott news broke in mid-August. Why? Because Stevenson will receive the same amount of workload and usage as he would have without Elliott on the depth chart.
There was always going to be a back spelling 'Mondre, likely taking care of some of the short-yardage and goal-line touches. Sure, Zeke will snake a couple of TDs away from Stevenson on breakout runs, but our projections for the third-year Pats RB have only decreased slightly.
When most fantasy owners think of Stevenson, they think of a solid, strong runner with good vision and a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. What they don't realize is how terrific of a pass-catcher he has become. Belichick raved about Stevenson's evolution as a backfield receiver last year, even during the preseason.
By the last whistle of the 2022 regular season, 'Mondre had amassed 69 catches on 88 targets (78.4-percent catch rate) for 421 yards (6.1 yards per reception). That's a massive jump in receiving production from his rookie year, in which he caught 14-of-18 targets for 123 yards. He basically took over Brandon Bolden and James White's targets when they departed after the '21 season.
In contrast, Elliott's receiving numbers have declined in each of the past four seasons. Seriously, you have to see it to believe just how much his production as a pass-catcher has dropped in a half-decade:
| Year | Targets | Catches | Rec. Yards | Y/R | Rec. TDs | R/G | Y/G | Catch % |
| 2018 | 95 | 77 | 567 | 7.4 | 3 | 5.1 | 37.8 | 81.10% |
| 2019 | 71 | 54 | 420 | 7.8 | 2 | 3.4 | 26.3 | 76.10% |
| 2020 | 71 | 52 | 338 | 6.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 22.5 | 73.20% |
| 2021 | 65 | 47 | 287 | 6.1 | 2 | 2.8 | 16.9 | 72.30% |
| 2022 | 23 | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 0 | 1.1 | 6.1 | 73.90% |
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
That's pretty wild. Sure, his targets have dropped considerably, and there was nothing he could do about having fewer opportunities. But his yards per reception have decreased in each of the past three seasons, his yards per target have gone down every year since 2018, and his catch rate has consistently failed to reach 74 percent in three consecutive years.
Belichick, Bill O'Brien, and Joe Judge will not try to beat the dead horse that is Elliott in the passing game. That's 'Mondre territory, as will be most of the first-down and second-down reps between the 20s. A 1,500-plus season remains a distinct possibility for Stevenson, who might actually benefit from Zeke being his primary backup.
Elliott is a big RB2 upgrade from Damien Harris, who departed this offseason for Buffalo after an underwhelming 2022 campaign. It's quite possible that Zeke learns the system in New England and immediately produces strong results that blow away Harris's past production (23 first downs in 103 attempts last season, 4.5 yards per touch). He could extend drives for the Pats and ultimately increase Stevenson's fantasy scoring opportunities.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
Ezekiel Elliott, Rhamondre Stevenson's fantasy outlooks 2023
Ultimately, we have Stevenson remaining in tier 3 at about the RB12-RB15 range with top-five upside if things fall into place for this offense as Belichick, O'Brien, and Judge hope they will. The talent both as a 5.0 yards-per-carry rusher and uber-reliable pass-catcher and open-field playmaker make him too good to rank any lower than the low teens. His ADP right now is at 24 — we would draft him by the 15-18 range in standard leagues and by 12-14 in PPRs.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
As for Zeke, the production will be based on workload. In a Mac Jones system run by Belichick and company, the RB2 is a valuable fantasy commodity. Short yardage, third-down work, and goal-line touches in New England can easily translate to viable flex numbers. So, while our final rankings have yet to be set in stone, we can say with confidence he will sit at or around tier 5 in the RB30s. We would pick him by pick No. 85 in standard leagues and the 95-100 range in PPRs.
It's worth noting that DraftSharks' injury predictor pegs Stevenson as a "very high risk," due to his heavy workload and past ankle and knee issues (plus a concussion). Elliott, meanwhile, is listed as "high risk," probably mostly due to his recent history of MCL and PCL knee issues, as well as the fact that he's now 28 (which is more like 35 in RB years).
We would love to draft Elliott as a handcuff to 'Mondre (Zeke's usage would skyrocket if Stevenson went down), but we don't feel the need to own 'Mondre if we plan on drafting Zeke. As we said earlier, Stevenson's usage will likely be the same with or without Zeke in the offense — an injury behind him would simply mean "next man up" for Ty Montgomery or Kevin Harris.
Stevenson's probably going to finish with right around 275 opportunities and 260 total touches. Elliott will likely see about 160-175 opportunities and 150 touches. With the Patriots likely taking a step forward on the whole offensively, that should be plenty good enough to make Stevenson a top-15 RB for the second consecutive season and Elliott a top-35 RB with top-20 upside if he gobbles up TDs like he has in the past.
