After a nearly blemish-free week in NFL survivor pools, things figure to be a little trickier in Week 9. This week features two teams that were the most popular choices just two weeks ago returning as the most popular picks again this week (49ers, Bills). However, with so many entries having already already used those teams, you might have to consider other options this week. TeamRankings is here to help by looking at win odds and future values of the five most popular Week 9 choices.
Before getting into the pros and cons of the top-five picks in NFL survivor pools this week, here's a reminder that TeamRankings the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in survivor pools. Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. Check out their NFL survivor pool picks, football pick 'em contest picks, and NFL betting picks.
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Last week's survivor pick analysis
Virtually everyone survived in Week 8. The 12 largest favorites all won, and 99.8 percent of the public advanced. All of our recommendations advanced, as well. But that does not mean everyone is in the same position moving forward. The public went with Minnesota nearly half the time, while our most frequent recommendation was Pittsburgh. The Steelers have very little future value, while the Vikings rank among the top five teams in our future value measure. That means entries with Minnesota available should have an advantage as we head into the second half of the season.
WEEK 9 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 9 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis
Week 9 features two teams that were the most popular choices just two weeks ago returning as the most popular choices again this week. However, many entries already used those teams in Week 7 and will have to consider other options this week. We’ll explore all of that as we break down the most popular choices of Week 9.
San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 44%
Point Spread: -10
For the second week in a row, the team with the highest win odds of the week will be playing in the Thursday night game, as the 49ers travel to Arizona.
Their early popularity is also more than twice as much as any other team, which impacts their value this week. Relatively speaking, they also are not as safe for a top choice on the board compared to other weeks this year. Our models put their win odds at 81 percent, and the betting market win odds are at 79 percent. This is only the second time so far this season where the safest option had win odds under 89 percent (the other time coming in Week 1 when the Eagles were at 79 percent over the Redskins).
If you don’t use them this week, San Francisco is also going to be one of the safest options in Week 11 (hosting Arizona) and Week 15 (vs. Atlanta).
Buffalo Bills (vs. Washington)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 19%
Point Spread: -9.5
Roughly two-thirds of entries used Buffalo two weeks ago. So, while its pick popularity is at 19 percent this week, that means that over half of the entries that have the Bills still available are going with them this week. Their win odds in the betting markets are very similar to San Francisco. Our models are lower on Buffalo, giving them a 74-percent chance of victory, though that still ranks second this week.
Buffalo has not been an offensive powerhouse, scoring under 20 points in over half its games, but Washington is No. 31 in our predictive ratings and has struggled to score points (average of 7.2 over the past five games).
The Bills are also going to be one of the safest options in Week 11 when they go to Miami and in Week 17 when they play the Jets at home.
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tampa Bay)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 17%
Point Spread: -6
Seattle is the most popular choice of those who either cannot use or are saving San Francisco and Buffalo. The Seahawks were the most popular choice back in Week 1 but have not been above two-percent popularity in any week since then.
Seattle’s win odds are around 70 percent playing Tampa Bay, the team that has knocked out more than 10 percent of survivor entries twice (with wins over Carolina and the Rams). That’s a drop-off from the safety of taking a team like San Francisco. Seattle also has the highest popularity of the year for a team with win odds below 75 percent.
The Seahawks also have low future value; however, they are one of the safer options in Week 16 when they host Arizona.
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Green Bay Packers (at LA Chargers)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 5%
Point Spread: -3
Green Bay travels to the Chargers, where it is a slight favorite. Its win odds are 59 percent, which is a significant drop-off from the top two safety options for the week. Roughly five percent of entries are going with Green Bay in this spot, which also makes it fairly popular for a riskier alternative.
Green Bay is fifth in our future value projections and look like the safest option in Week 14 when it hosts Washington. The Packers are also in consideration as a potential pick in Week 13 (at NY Giants) and Week 15 (vs. Chicago) and are currently the fourth-safest option in our projections for Week 10 when they host Carolina.
New York Jets (at Miami)
Survival Pool Pick Popularity: 4%
Point Spread: -3
At one point, the Jets looked like they were going to be the most popular choice this week, given their availability and low future value. Then they spent the last two weeks getting outscored 62-15 by the Patriots and Jaguars while the Dolphins have been more competitive.
As a result, the Jets' betting market win odds are down to 60 percent, and our models put them at 57 percent. They do present significant risk playing on the road at Miami. The positives are that they have no future value other than in Week 14 when they host Miami, and if you are in a season wins tiebreaker pool, the Jets would be a valuable, but risky, team to use.
Get our Week 9 Survivor Pool pick recommendation
The teams above are the most popular survivor picks of Week 8, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Your best NFL Week 9 survivor pick is the one that offers the ideal balance of safety, pick popularity, and future value for your specific pool.
We built our NFL Survivor Picks tools to do all of the necessary number crunching to figure out the best pick(s) for your pool. You simply answer a few questions about your survivor pool's size and rules, and enter the teams you've picked so far. Then, it provides customized Week 9 pick recommendations based on the latest matchup data, Vegas odds and public picking trends.
The result? Since 2017, on average, more than 30 percent of our subscribers have reported winning a survivor pool every year. We invite you to give the product a try for free, and good luck in your survivor pools in Week 9!
FREE TRIAL OFFER: Sporting News readers can get a free premium trial to TeamRankings, including game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools. Claim your free trial now!