The carnage was very real in NFL pick 'em and survivor pools last week. The Saints and Colts alone knocked a huge chunk of people out of their survivor pools, and with only two of the eight most popular picks in pick 'em pools winning, there were hits there, as well. But if you're still alive in survivor or looking to get back on track in pick 'em, the experts from TeamRankings are here to help with advice and tips for your Week 11 NFL picks.
Before getting into the advice, here's a reminder that TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in survivor pools. Since 2017, TeamRankings subscribers have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings. Check out their NFL survivor pool picks, football pick 'em contest picks, and NFL betting picks.
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Week 11 NFL Pick 'em Pool Tips, Analysis
Review of last week's pick 'em analysis
Last week for pick ’em we highlighted four value favorites and the top unpopular underdog option. Those picks (Cleveland, Chicago, Dallas, Jets, and San Francisco) went 3-2. The public, meanwhile, only averaged 1.8 wins for those five games and took a beating overall.
WEEK 11 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Value picks for NFL Week 11 pick'em pools
Getting the biggest edge in your NFL pick 'em pool requires knowing not only every team's win odds (i.e. how risky of a pick it is), but also how popular of a pick it is. Why? Because when you pick less popular teams and they win, you'll shoot up your office pool standings.
Based on win odds and pick popularity, the three teams below either offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 11 picks from your pool opponents. To get all our pick recommendations for your pool -- customized for its size, rules, and prize structure -- check out our Football Pick 'em Picks product.
Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our football picks product updates multiple times per day.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Pittsburgh)
Last week, the Browns were our highlighted value favorite going against Buffalo at home. Cleveland is back again as a favorite who is being picked less than half the time by the public. The Browns are a 2.5-point favorite over the Steelers in Thursday Night's game, with win odds of around 56 percent. They aren't as unpopular as last week but are still only being picked by 39 percent of the public in this one. The public seems to have fully jumped off the Browns' bandwagon at a time when the schedule is actually opening up a bit. Cleveland had played a very difficult first-half schedule, especially when it came to oppoosing defenses, and might be providing value now as a result.
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Jacksonville)
The Colts have had an interesting journey when it comes to the public popularity. They were very unpopular and often a great value play early in the season, as they were unexpectedly competitive with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Then, they went through a stretch over the past few weeks where the public climbed aboard, and they lost consecutive close games to the Steelers and Dolphins. The Colts, by the way, have had every game decided by seven points or less, making them only the second team since the 1970 merger to be involved in nine straight games that close to open the season.
Now, they are favored over the Jaguars at home by 3.5 points, with win odds of 64 percent. The public is taking them 70 percent of the time, which is pretty reasonable given their win odds. That pick popularity, though, puts them well below the other four games with a point spread of between 3.5 and 4.5 points this week, making them a value. That's why, as of right now, the Colts are a recommendation in straight up pools across both weekly and seasonal prize types and why they are bumped up a little in confidence point pools with weekly prize structures.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New England)
This pick isn't suitable for all pools, but if you're in a situation where it makes more sense to gamble on an underdog (e.g. a weekly prize pool, or you need to take some risks to make up spots in the standings), you want to make sure that the risk/reward tradeoff looks good.
The Patriots will be trying to bounce back after their first loss of the season to Baltimore in a rematch of the Super Bowl from two seasons ago. The Patriots come into this one as a 3.5-point favorite on the road with implied win odds of 63 percent from the betting markets. Our models are a little more optimistic about Philadelphia's chances, giving it a 42 percent of pulling the mild upset.
The public, meanwhile, is a strong believer in the Patriots getting both revenge and a bounce back, with 82 percent going with New England. That means this game has the highest difference between our projected win odds and the public pick rate for Week 11. New England's offense has struggled somewhat this season, which was largely masked by playing a very easy schedule until meeting Baltimore. Philadelphia is still the second-best team the Patriots have played all season, so taking a chance on the upset is a decent option in weekly contests of all sizes.
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Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Week 11 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis
Review of last week's survivor pick analysis
Meanwhile, in survivor pools, well over 80 percent of the public was eliminated last week with the Colts and Saints losing. We recommended that our subscribers largely avoid those teams (less than 20 percent of our recommendations were on the Saints or Colts) and most frequently recommended the Bears, Ravens, and Bucs. As a result, over 60 percent of our recommendations survived the week, and our subscribers are now more than five times as likely to still be alive in survivor pools as the general public.
This week features two teams being selected by around 40 percent of the remaining public entries so far. They each look like the safest choices this week, but should you stay with one of them or take a little more risk and fade both to play for the big upset? Those are the choices those in survivor pools this week.
Week 11 survivor pool breakdown
The Raiders (vs. Bengals) are the most popular choice in survivor this week, with around half the public (51 percent) picking them so far. Their popularity makes sense, as they have not been used in survivor pools much at all this season but draw the winless Bengals this week. The Raiders are a 10.5-point favorite with 82-percent implied win odds from the betting markets.
The Vikings (vs. Denver) and 49ers (vs. Arizona) both have similar win odds to Oakland and are also favored by at least 10.5 points. Minnesota is the choice of 19 percent of the public, while San Francisco is being selected 11 percent of the time. Given that those two teams have similar win odds but are far less popular as Oakland, they have higher expected value this week and are generally better picks than Oakland in most pools.
Of the two, San Francisco is slightly more valuable to hold for the future because it has one of the highest projected win odds in Week 15, when it hosts Atlanta.
Of course, if your picks mirror the public, you might not have either San Francisco or Minnesota available, as Minnesota was the most popular public choice in Week 8 and San Francisco was the top survivor choice in Week 9. If you have used both of those teams and need help deciding who to use this week, check out our NFL Survivor Picks product.
More From TeamRankings:
Football Pick 'em Picks | NFL Survivor Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Get our Week 11 Survivor Pool pick recommendation
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 11, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. But there are a lot of potential decisions to make. Not all of them will make sense for your specific pool(s), and it takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answers.
Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you. You can use the links above to learn more about our data-driven game predictions, betting picks, and customized picks for pick 'em and survivor pools.