Conference championship weekend’s small slate magnifies the importance of a few well-chosen bets on game script and personnel strategy. Our DraftKings GPP lineup picks will hinge on the cascading effects of these calls for NFL DFS.
If the Eagles offense manages even a decent day against the Vikings, we’re in trouble. If the Jaguars hold a lead by sundown and aren't forced to chuck it, we're definitely in trouble.
Our cash and GPP lineups averaged 138 and 143 DraftKings points, respectively, through the first two playoff rounds. Going for two hundo here.
PLAYOFF DFS: FanDuel GPP lineup | Lineup Builder
Playoff DraftKings Picks: GPP Lineup for conference championships
QB Blake Bortles, JAX @ NE ($5,000): We don’t want the game script in Pittsburgh that saw Bortles take a slate-low 28 dropbacks. We’ll count on Tom Brady living up to the standard Jimmy Garoppolo set: Dicing the Jags early and making Bortles drop back closer to 50 times. The $2,700 chasm between Bortles and Brady plays to our advantage if pass volume gets their scores in the same neighborhood, accepting that this would likely include turnovers from Bortles.
RB Dion Lewis, NE vs. JAX ($8,100): The bet's on New England taking a lead by early second half and leaning on the run. Lewis is averaging 20 carries per game since Week 15 and deserves the RB1 price tag, even if Rex Burkhead returns to join James White as backfield elements the Patriots can throw at opponents. Since Vikes-Eagles will feature committee approaches, we’ll want to snag a lead back with positive game script projected here.
RB Rex Burkhead, NE vs. JAX ($5,400): We're clearly fading the likely defensive stalemate in Philly and also don't love playing the minus-900 favorite for "What Belichick Decides to Take Away" in Leonard Fournette. New England's aware that Jacksonville allowed Carlos Hyde and Kyle Juszczyk to nab three and five catches, respectively, in Week 16. Two-back sets have produced this season against the Jags. Burkhead out-touched James White 30-13 between Weeks 12 and 13, the last two games with both active and the Patriots leading for most of the contest.
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN @ PHI ($6,900): The slate's too short to dodge this game completely. Diggs ended Sunday with a nice catch, but more importantly notched the second-most air yards among any surviving receiver from the divisional round. Brandin Cooks finished ahead and likely sees A.J. Bouye or Jalen Ramsey on nearly every snap, both top-10 corners in Pro Football Focus coverage grading. Diggs should get Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills, neither in PFF's top 25.
WR Dede Westbrook, JAX @ NE ($3,900): Pricing on our next two receivers will help us save cap for Gronk while retaining decent enough upside. Marqise Lee complicates matters and Westbrook's produced little over the past two weeks. However, It's encouraging that Westbrook joined Lee as the only Jaguars receivers to take a majority of offensive snaps with a 69 percent share.
WR Keelan Cole, JAX @ NE ($3,500): Cole saw 39 percent of snaps against Pittsburgh, though he could see far more usage if Jacksonville doesn't manage to lead throughout as they did in Pittsburgh. Westbrook and Cole provide the ideal sub-$4K GPP plays, their ceilings made evident by each landing top 15 in air yards over the final four weeks of the regular season.
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE vs. JAX ($7,900): Jalen Ramsey has yet to shadow a slot receiver in his professional career, let alone a tight end. It's certainly possible that Ramsey covers Gronk in some situations. However, on the plays where New England gets him in favorable coverage, Brady takes advantage. Gronk's topped 20 DK points in each of his past three playoff games.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN @ PHI ($5,100): Running into the teeth of the No. 1 total run D just isn't palatable, so we're fading Latavius Murray. McKinnon profiles similar to Tevin Coleman, who found success on the edge against Philly en route to 93 yards on 11 touches. Minny will struggle going toe-to-toe in the offensive trenches, so we're betting they off-set this with a boost in usage for McKinnon in both the run and pass game.
D/ST Vikings vs. Eagles ($3,800): Nick Foles started and nearly ended the first half on Saturday with passes thrown to Falcons players. Atlanta allowed the most RB catches this year and Philly took advantage. Foles' 5.2-yard average depth of target was lowest on the slate, and per PFF data would've been lowest among qualifying QBs for 2017. Minnesota allowed the fewest yards this season and the second-fewest over the final three. If you liked going against Foles last week, you love it this week.