Our Week 12 DraftKings cash lineup will capitalize on some offenses that have become quietly competent, or at least ones that have flown under the radar enough to avoid aggressive price adjustments on NFL DFS sites.
Last Sunday's main slate attack focused on mid-tier receivers with target floor and receiving upside, which got us across the finish line thanks to John Brown and Calvin Ridley. We also ran with the pack on D.J. Moore and made out fine there.
WEEK 12 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
We now get a slate that features teams in the midst of disappointing seasons that have started to inspire confidence from a fantasy perspective, at least in certain spots.
DraftKings Week 12 Picks: NFL DFS cash lineup
Playing under a $50K salary cap for Sunday afternoon ET contests.
There were several updates, but landed on this one. The rationale for each choice and update history below.
UPDATED QB Matt Ryan, Falcons vs. Bucs ($6,700). The late scratches for the Eagles pass game have us moving off Wentz and getting up to Ryan, facing a Bucs defense allowing the third-most DK points to quarterbacks. This game sports the week's highest total and is expected to shoot out.
FIRST UPDATE: QB Carson Wentz, Eagles vs. Seahawks ($5,600). We'll capitalize on Wentz going dirt cheap after three straight games against top-10 defenses, including the top two units in New England and Buffalo. Wentz is primed to rebound at home against a bottom-10 pass yards defense with the expected return of his top receiver in Alshon Jeffery.
INITIAL QB Sam Darnold, Jets vs. Raiders ($5,800). The Raiders defense fared better recently against Philip Rivers and Ryan Finley. However, this unit still allows the sixth-most DK points to quarterbacks and visits Sam Darnold, who's coming off consecutive 20-plus-point weeks.
WEEK 12 DFS LINEUPS:
FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | Y! cash | Y! GPP
UPDATED RB Saquon Barkley, Giants @ Bears ($7,900). It appears Saquon is far healthier coming out of the Giants bye and gets a $900 price reduction after his dud against a Jets run D that allows the league's lowest yards per attempt. The pass volume's locked in with five or more targets in each game this season.
INITIAL RB Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. Panthers ($8,200). Kamara leads all running backs in receptions since coming off bye and injury leave two weeks ago. Pricing for 2018 Kamara would get him easily to $10K, Christian McCaffrey range, and I like his chance of getting to 4X value and 25 DK points more than CMC hitting 4X value this week.
WEEK 12 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
UPDATED RB Derrick Henry, Titans vs. Jaguars ($6,900). Henry ranked fifth in carries over the four weeks heading into the Titans' Week 11 bye, and now faces a Jaguars defense allowing the most yards per rush. Swapping Henry in against road dog Jacksonville saves a enough cap to get us a high-volume RB in the flex.
FIRST UPDATE RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars @ Titans ($7,300). Another post-dud discount as Fournette drops $600 following the Jags' pass-heavy rout against Indy. The Titans' No. 26 total offense is less likely to put the Jags in negative game script, and Fournette has shown resistance iwth at least seven targets in three straight games.
INITIAL RB Joe Mixon, Bengals vs. Steelers ($5,900). Mixon hit 3X value for me last week and gets priced up a modest $400 on a trip home to face Cincinnati's big bro from Pittsburgh. This is still a slow adjustment from DraftKings given that Mixon ranks fourth in the league in touches since Zac Taylor put in his rookie QB.
WR DJ Chark Jr., Jaguars @ Titans ($6,400). Nick Foles clearly sees Chark the alpha WR. In Foles' first week back, Chark led the league in both targets and air yards, smashing with 104 yards and two scores on eight catches. Even if Foles throws fewer times in Tennessee, Chark's piece of the pie makes mid-tier price work here.
UPDATED WR DeVante Parker, Dolphins @ Browns ($5,200). Parker has seen 20 targets in the two weeks since Preston Williams went on IR, commanding a 26-percent target and 43-percent air yards market share from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
INITIAL WR Jarvis Landry, Browns vs. Dolphins ($6,300). There are some grossly underpriced receivers in offenses that have become competent. Only two players have seen more targets over the past four weeks than Landry.
MORE WEEK 12:
Waiver pickups | FAAB planner | Stock watch | Snap counts | Fantasy playoff SOS
UPDATED WR Taylor Gabriel, Bears vs. Giants ($4,200). Gabriel's tied with Parker at 10th among receivers in targets over the past two weeks. Big Blue allows the fifth-most DK points to WRs.
FIRST UPDATE WR Alshon Jeffery, Eagles vs. Seahawks ($4,900). Practice reports indicate we should be good to go here post-injury. In games where Jeffery played through most of the snaps, he led the Eagles in target market share at 24%. Eagles O is going underpriced after recent tough matchups without Jeffery, so I'll look to capitalize.
INITIAL WR Michael Gallup, Cowboys @ Patriots ($5,900). Gallup ranks fifth among receivers in targets since Week 9, knotting him with teammate Amari Cooper for a 23-percent target market share. Assuming Stephon Gilmore gets Amari Cooper and Jason McCourty gets Gallup, I prefer the (healthier) latter at lower cost.
UPDATED TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. Seahawks ($3,700). With Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor scratched, how can you not go Goedert. He was already seeing a 16% target share over the past three games and the possibility of 20% for a TE at this price is tough to pass up.
INITIAL TE Ryan Griffin, Jets vs. Raiders ($4,200). Griffin gets to build on his 25-DK-point week with a price that doesn't really factor his usage sans Chris Herndon, who is now on IR. When you remove the Week 10 outing where Chris Herndon factored more heavily, Griffin ranks fifth in TE targets since Week 8.
MORE WEEK 12 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
UPDATED FLEX Chris Carson, Seahawks @ Eagles ($6,700). Much is made of the Eagles' pass-funnel defense, but it's a different unit with their starting CBs healthy and they rank closer to middling in yards per rush allowed over the past three weeks. Carson averages in 23 touches in a good offense, so I'll take sub-$7K.
FLEX DeVante Parker, Dolphins @ Browns ($5,200). Share No. 2 in Fins-Browns! Let's go! Parker has seen 20 targets in the two weeks since Preston Williams went on IR, commanding a 26-percent target and 43-percent air yards market share from Ryan Fitzpatrick.
DST Bengals vs. Steelers ($2,100). The path to seven DK p oints is paved with quarterbacks making mistakes. We get basement price to exploit Mason Rudolph, PFF 's lowest-graded quarterback among 31 with 250 or more attempts this season.