Conference Championship DraftKings Picks: NFL DFS tournament lineup advice

Matt Lutovsky

Conference Championship DraftKings Picks: NFL DFS tournament lineup advice image

The AFC and NFC Championship games always feature a ton of starpower and plenty of potential NFL DFS value picks despite the extremely limited slate. Inevitably, you're going to have to buck traditional daily fantasy football strategy in some way, be it having multiple players against your D/ST or a lineup with little differentiation, but that doesn't mean you still can't win big money in DraftKings contests. 

When putting together your lineup this week, the first question you need to answer is whether you're willing to pay up for Travis Kelce. If the answer is "no", then you're basically punting TE despite Rob Gronkowski's name value. That's certainly fine -- especially if you buy into the narrative about the Patriots taking away the other team's top weapon and you think that's Kelce -- but if you spend down at TE, you better not miss at other positions. The good news is you can't really lose at QB, and there are enough moderately priced WRs that you should be stacked there even if you don't pay up for the top guys.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP DFS: Y! GPP Lineup | FD GPP LineupLineup Builder

Defense is a disaster, which is usually the case at this point in the year, so don't worry about that too much. With only $600 separating the most expensive option from the cheapest, it's all about taking what fits in with the rest of your lineup. Running back obviously features plenty of good options, but chances are many will fade Todd Gurley given his RB1 price and the recent emergence of C.J. Anderson. Paying up for Gurley could give you a big edge if he gets the bulk of the touches and has a standout Gurley game, but if he's merely average, that can leave you in a big hole.

Conference Championship DraftKings Picks: NFL DFS tournament lineup

QB Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs vs. Patriots ($6,600). There are only four teams playing this week, and while all feature good QBs, you're probably doing it wrong if you have multiple lineups and at least one doesn't feature Mahomes. Coming off a game with zero passing touchdowns, it's tough to imagine the likely MVP being held in check two weeks in a row. If his first game against the Pats this year is any indication (352 yards, four TDs), Mahomes will be just fine. Even though he's the most expensive QB on the slate, he's only $1,200 more than QB4 Jared Goff, so you can easily fit him in your lineup without having to sacrifice too much elsewhere.

RB Alvin Kamara, Saints vs. Rams ($6,500). There's always a slight worry with Kamara that Mark Ingram or Taysom Hill will steal key carries, particularly around the goal line, but after 20 touches and 106 total yards last week (and a long TD catch called back because of a penalty), we're not too worried about him hitting value. If he has one of his patented multi-TD or double-digit-catch outings, he'll smash at this price. The Rams were one of eight teams to allow 100-plus rushing yards to RBs during the regular season, and Kamara lit them up for 116 total yards and three TDs when these teams met in Week 9. Few, if any, backs playing this week can match Kamara's upside.

RB James White, Patriots @ Chiefs ($5,400). It feels like everyone is going to own White this week, possibly in a stack with Tom Brady. We'll take the chalk, though, because in full-point PPR formats, it's a major risk not to have him. The odds he has 15 catches (17 targets) for a second straight week are slim, but eight or nine isn't out of the question. He didn't have any carries against the Chargers, but if he even gets five this week, which is slightly below his regular season average of 5.9, he could do damage against a Kansas City defense that allowed 5.0 yards per carry in the regular season. The one negative about using White in DK is he's unlikely to get the three-point 100-yard rushing/receiving bonus, but given his RB6 price this week, it's tough to pass on him.

EARLY 2019 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST Kicker

WR Michael Thomas, Saints vs. Rams ($8,200). Are we chasing points with Thomas? Maybe a little, but look at his lines in the his past three playoff games: 8-131 (vs. CAR), 7-85-2 (@ MIN), 12-171-1 (vs. PHI). When things get serious, Drew Brees looks to Thomas, and Thomas always produces. The Rams secondary has been fairly up and down this year, and even with Aqib Talib back and doing a good job against No. 1 receivers, it's tough to completely shut down Thomas, especially at home. In DraftKings full-point PPR format, we want the guy who has a good chance of leading all receivers in targets this week.

WR Julian Edelman, Patriots @ Chiefs ($6,600). Similar to Brees and Thomas, Tom Brady looks to Edelman in the playoffs. The veteran slot receiver caught nine of 15 targets for 151 yards last week, and during New England's three-game 2016 postseason run, he caught 21 of 36 targets for 342 yards and a score. In '15, he caught 17 of 29 yards for 153 yards in two games, and in '14, he hauled in 26 of 37 looks for 281 yards and a score in three games. He had double-digit targets in each of those nine games, hitting the 100-yard mark five times. The Chiefs secondary is vulnerable (which Edelman showed in his second game back this year when he had 54 yards and a score against them), and you can bet the Pats will take advantage.

WR Sammy Watkins, Chiefs vs. Patriots ($4,000). Watkins looked healthy last week in his return from a lengthy layoff because of a foot injury, catching six of eight targets for 62 yards. He reportedly suffered no setbacks, making him wildly undervalued at this price. He only scored in two of his 10 full games this year (counting the playoffs), but he gets a fair amount of targets (seven or more in six games), so he has plenty of upside. He'll be no higher than third on the Patriots priority list, so the potential for a big game is there. 

TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs vs. Patriots ($7,100). As we mentioned earlier, you can either fade Kelce and hope for a random TE touchdown from Rob Gronkowski, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee or Ben Watson, or you can pay up and give yourself a major advantage at a thin position. While Gronk ($4,100) isn't a bad choice given the matchup, his lack of involvement in the Pats passing game recently is a worry. It would be a classic Patriots move to give him 15 targets this week, but we're paying up for Kelce. The Pats limited him to a 5-61 line (nine targets) earlier this season, but it's a favorable matchup on paper and you know the targets will be there. Kelce is riding a four-game scoring drought, his longest of the season, so it's fair to say he's due.

FLEX Gerald Everett, Rams @ Saints ($2,600). And here's where we pay the price for having guys like Mahomes, Thomas, Kamara, and Kelce. Obviously, this is a total TD-or-bust play, and you can argue that we'd be better off using Gronk at TE and someone like Sony Michel ($5,600) or Brandin Cooks ($5,300) at FLEX. That would certainly look better on paper, but we want Kelce, so that forces us to make some tough choices. Everett should have very lower ownership, so that's a potential plus, too. While he hasn't had a catch (three targets) in his past two games, in the three games prior, he caught 14 of 20 targets for 103 yards. The Saints were tough against TEs all year, but if Everett can even pull off a 3-30-1 line, we'll take it considering the other studs we paid up for. And for the record, here's Gronk's line the past four games: 5-70-0 (11 targets). 

DEF Saints vs. Rams ($2,700). All of the defenses playing this week have bad matchups and wouldn't be described as "dominant", so there's really no good answer at this position. The easiest call would be to spend down for the cheapest option (New England at $2,100), but for us, that doesn't really mean much in terms of upgrades. We could go from Everett to Rex Burkhead ($3,400) at FLEX, and while Burkhead is more likely to score and has a better matchup, we're basically looking at a similar upside. The Saints are at least at home in a noisy dome (with a solid pass rush) and have more big-play potential. They couldn't do anything against the Rams at home in Week 9 (no sacks, one takeaway, 35 points allowed), but since then, they've averaged 3.9 sacks and 2.1 takeaways per game (not counting Week 17). Any D/ST can score a random TD at this point (look at the Colts last week), but the Saints have the highest floor this week.

Matt Lutovsky

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Matt Lutovsky has been a writer and editor for The Sporting News since 2007, primarily writing about fantasy sports, betting, and gaming.