There are only so many potential picks when you're playing a two-game NFL DFS slate. This Saturday's divisional round playoff matchups between the Titans and Ravens and Vikings and 49ers feature plenty of top-shelf talent, but balancing budget, matchups, and differentiation isn't easy in DraftKings contests -- especially if you're going to fade Lamar Jackson.
Yes, we're going that route with our GPP lineup. It's risky, to say the least, but Jackson had four one-TD games this year, so it's not as if he scores 40 points every week (just most weeks). Either way, we're taking our shot with two of Baltimore's other key contributors, plus a big 49ers stack that needs to hit. We're also covering our bases with some correlating Vikings and a Titan. With big spreads across the board this round, we're hoping game script is a little more predictable than last week.
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Saturday NFL Playoff DraftKings Picks: Divisional Round DFS tournament lineup
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers vs. Vikings ($5,600). Fading Jackson for any of the other three QBs on Saturday's slate is a risk, but if Jackson has a subpar game, you'll put yourself in great position to cash. Obviously, that's a big "if", but with just four teams in action, you're going to have to take a few shots. Garoppolo is coming off an efficient game in Week 17 in Seattle (18-for-22, 285 yards), but he failed to account for a touchdown. We expect that to change this week against a Vikings defense that tied for the third-most pass completions allowed this year. San Francisco will try to establish the run, but the Vikings' stout front can force them to the air, where Garoppolo has an advantage.
RB Mark Ingram, Ravens vs. Titans ($6,700). Ingram's calf injury could cause others to fade him, but as long as he plays, he should produce. He averaged 14.5 touches per game in his 14 full contests, and at 5.0 yards per carry, he'll provide a solid floor with yards. And we know what kind of TD upside he has, scoring 15 times in as many games, including five receiving touchdowns over his final five contests. Other than Jackson, he's the Ravens' go-to guy when they get inside the 10.
RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings @ 49ers ($8,000). If you're choosing between Cook and Derrick Henry (something we didn't do with our full weekend DK lineup where we took both), the deciding factor should be which back can be more effective if his team trails by two possessions in the second half. We know both will get fed early, but Cook is much more likely to be used in the passing game if Minnesota finds itself playing from behind. Henry is a beast, but Cook has more upside in DK's full-point PPR format.
MORE SATURDAY DFS: FanDuel lineup
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers vs. Vikings ($5,200). We put Samuel on two of our full weekend teams, and the reasoning is pretty simple: He gets a decent amount of targets (5.6 per game), plus one or two carries, and is priced rather modestly considering his big-play upside. Minnesota gave up a lot of receptions to WRs during the regular season (second most), and starting DB Mackensie Alexander (knee) won't play this week. If we're going to take a chance on Jimmy G, we need a couple of his receivers. Samuel is as good of a bet as any.
WR Stefon Diggs, Vikings @ 49ers ($5,600). Whenever Diggs whines, he usually gets the ball a lot the following week. Perhaps that won't be the case in the playoffs, but we're actually encouraged by his disappointing, tantrum-filled wild card performance. In GPPs, Diggs' big-play potential at a cheaper price makes him more appealing than Adam Thielen, and the fact the Vikings seem to like trying trick plays where Diggs throws the ball is an added bonus.
WR Tajae Sharpe, Titans @ Ravens ($3,500). The Ravens struggle a bit against slot receivers (Cole Beasley and Jamison Crowder combined for 119 yards and three TDs against them in Weeks 14 and 15), and Sharpe could play that role with Adam Humphries (ankle) hurt. Even if he isn't in the slot much, we expect the Titans to be trailing and throwing more in the second half, opening things up for some cheap points from at least one of their pass-catchers. We might as well take a shot on Sharpe, who had a two-TD game in Week 16.
SUNDAY DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
TE George Kittle, 49ers vs. Vikings ($6,200). If you're taking Jimmy G, you gotta take Kittle. The matchup looks rough, as Minnesota allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to TEs during the regular season, but a fluky low amount of TDs (1) inflated its prowess against the position. The Vikings actually gave up the eighth-most TE receptions, and if Kittle racks up catches, then yards and maybe a touchdown are sure to follow.
FLEX Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. Titans ($5,600). With Ingram and Andrews, we have the two most likely Ravens to score (other than Jackson, of course). Tennessee allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to TEs during the regular season, so we'll go all-in on this two-TE set that most DFS owners will shy away from.
D/ST Baltimore Ravens vs. Titans ($3,600). There aren't any obvious matchups to pick on here, so we'll opt for a home defense with a ton of big-play potential. Baltimore has a low floor because Tennessee could simply grind out long drives on the ground, which offers limited opportunities for sacks and INTs, but if the Ravens jump out to a lead like we expect, it could take Tennessee out of its comfort zone and force it to pass more.
