Last week taught us how woke the public can be to post-dud daily fantasy football plays like Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks and Eric Ebron, as they all went relatively high-owned. This column posted a decent score but not quite the target for DraftKings GPP tournaments. Learn, adapt and grind for Week 14.
We’re looking for the right mix of ownership and upside with this week's picks, with the key to our strategy being a high floor with at least one of our RB and one of our WR plays.
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WEEK 14 DFS: FanDuel GPP lineup | DK cash | Values | DFS lineup builder
SUNDAY MORNING PIVOT: From RB Ryan Mathews ($4000) to RB Shane Vereen ($4000). Vereen is now a go for Sunday night and stands a much better chance for high usage in the pass game.
QB Trevor Siemian, DEN at TEN ($5,100): Injury uncertainty can limit price, but I’m surprised it’s to this degree. Hopefully the dirt-cheap cost doesn’t bring too many GPP shares, especially since Siemian is averaging 303 yards and 2.3 touchdowns over his past three games and gets a Tennessee D that Matt Barkley hit for 300-and-3 last time out.
RB Melvin Gordon, SD at CAR ($7,400): We’re saving over two grand off the top RB price for a running back that still possesses weekly RB1 upside. Gordon remains the dynamic workhorse, getting at least four targets in every game since Week 6. The league lead in carries and TDs from inside the 10 cements that high ceiling.
RB Ryan Mathews, PHI vs. WAS ($4,000): Mathews returns at likely low ownership against a Washington D ranking bottom five in DraftKings points allowed to opposing RBs. Philly has struggled recently but allows only 13 points per game at home, so the game script should remain manageable.
WEEK 14 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
WR Antonio Brown, PIT at BUF ($8,700): This is Brown’s lowest cost this season, and it comes against a banged-up, struggling group of Bills outside corners and safeties. Brown could see plenty of both Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby, who rank 70th and 35th, respectively, in Pro Football Focus CB grades.
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND vs. HOU ($7,500): A healthy Andrew Luck gives Hilton weekly WR1 upside, and it's even higher when the Colts offensive line protects as well as it did on Monday night. Expect Hilton to get downfield targets. The Texans’ secondary is down two starting corners and allows better production from the slot than outside.
WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN @ TEN ($5,700): Sanders exploded in Week 12 and should get Siemian back in the fold, which feels like a weirdly exuberant sentence. The Paxton Lynch Week hurt his production, but Siemian hit Sanders for five-plus receptions in each of the previous three games, while Tennessee allows the second-most DK points to opposing WRs.
TE Coby Fleener, NO at TB ($3,700): We always play Fleener with that caveat that he’s never been reliable -- and probably never will be. He's worth the roll here in GPP since Josh Hill is out and Fleener took advantage last Sunday with 86 yards on five receptions. A rebound from New Orleans’ offense would be crucial.
MORE: Build your perfect lineup with RotoQL
FLEX Taylor Gabriel, ATL at LA ($4,300): Julio Jones missed practice this week with a turf toe, upgrading the chances of this being more of a classic Julio decoy week. This could result in Matt Ryan leaning more on Gabriel, who ranks eighth in yards per reception and 12th in TDs since Week 14.
DST Bengals at Browns ($3,500): We took advantage of RG3 and the Browns Week 1, so we’ll do it again in Week 14, especially since Cleveland is now down both guards and Griffin posted a historic sack rate in his last significant stretch of play.