Reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes heads to Denver with a perfect career 3-0 record against the Broncos (2-4), with all three of his wins being decided by one possession. With the Chiefs on a two-game losing streak and the Broncos on a two-game winning streak, bettors might be conflicted on how to handle this game. The Chiefs (-3) are the favorite and have a -160 moneyline as of Thursday morning. The consensus point total is 48.5, so even the over/under is tough to figure.
If the Broncos hope to get over the hump and beat Mahomes and the Chiefs (4-2), they must do something they haven’t done against Mahomes before: Win the turnover battle. After starting the season 0-4, the Broncos have won back-to-back games and are riding high off a shutout win over the Titans. In the past two weeks, Denver’s six defensive takeaways rank second in the NFL.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, won their first four games but have lost back-to-back games against the Colts and Texans. The Chiefs had scored 25 or more points in 25 consecutive games, but following this two-game skid, they’ve scored fewer than 25 points in two straight games. Per BetQL’s NFL consensus dashboard, 62 percent of the tickets and 78 percent of the money has gone on the Chiefs (-3).
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Broncos Outlook
The Denver defense has a stiff task ahead with Mahomes leading the Chiefs offense that ranks second in offensive points (27.5) and fourth in net yards (422) per game. The Broncos need to capitalize on third downs as they did last week against the Titans to beat the Chiefs this week. Tennessee converted just two of 14 third downs, with the Denver defense recording a tackle for loss, two sacks, an interception and a pass breakup on the two-yard line. If the Broncos can get the Chiefs off the field on third downs and control the time of possession against the poor Kansas City rushing defense, they will have a chance to upset the Chiefs and win their third straight game while handing Kansas City their third straight loss.
This is undoubtedly a huge game for Denver’s AFC West chances, but if it loses, it will still have chances to get into the Wild Card with matchups against the Colts, Browns, and Bills in its next four games. If the Broncos hope to win on Thursday or against any of the other AFC playoff hopefuls, they must become more consistent and finish drives. While Denver held Tennessee to two-of-14 on third downs, the Broncos also converted a symmetrical two of their own 14 third downs. The Broncos rank 13th in number of plays run but are just 25th in yards per game and 26th in scoring. Wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders’s return to the offense after sitting out in the second half of Sunday’s win will help the Broncos stretch the field and counter the emerging Courtland Sutton, who ranks ninth with 477 receiving yards. The Denver offense will need these two at their best to match the high-powered Chiefs offense.
Denver not only needs to have its offense firing on all cylinders, but it needs to win the turnover battle. The Broncos are tied for 24th in turnovers with just six forced all season, but all six of those have come in their past two games. Their best chance of beating the Chiefs involves putting pressure on the Mahomes as his ability to escape pass rushers like Von Miller will be limited with his sore ankle. Although Mahomes hardly throws interceptions (he has 14 touchdown passes and just one interception this season), he has fumbled in three of Kansas City’s six games.
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Chiefs outlook
If the Chiefs want to get back to their winning ways, they need to do a better job of running the football and stopping the run, especially with Mahomes playing with a lingering ankle injury on a short week. The Chiefs have allowed the second-most rushing yards per attempt (5.2) and the third-most rushing yards per game (161.8) among all NFL defenses. As a result, the Chiefs rank 30th in time of possession at just 26:41 per game. Only Washington and Miami have been worse in that regard.
The Chiefs are not a terrible running team on offense, but they have not committed to handing the ball off. The Chiefs rank 18th in the NFL with 4.0 yards per carry, but they rank 24th with 82.7 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs rushed for more yards per carry than the Texans on Sunday (4.8 to 4.7 yards per rush), but the Texans ran for 139 more yards because their backs received 41 handoffs compared to Kansas City’s 11.
Among the 12 teams with the highest passing play percentage (the Chiefs rank fifth at 66 percent), Kansas City is the only team with a winning record. Handing the ball off will help shorten the game to keep Mahomes as healthy as possible while also making things easier for him on offense if the run game can set up play action. The Chiefs lead the NFL with 339.3 passing yards per game, but taking some of the load off Mahomes will help them in the long run this season and beyond, especially against the Broncos defense which ranks fourth in defending the pass with just 196 yards per game allowed through the air.
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Prediction
Despite back-to-back wins, the Broncos haven’t beaten anyone good yet this season. The two teams they’ve beaten, the Chargers and Titans, have combined to score more than 20 points just twice since Week 1 (against the lowly Falcons and Dolphins, respectively). The Chiefs offense, even with Mahomes’s improvisation ability limited by his ankle, is much more dynamic than either of those offenses. The hobbled quarterback has led the NFL in passing yards this season and has the Chiefs offense second in scoring. During Peyton Manning’s Broncos era, Denver went 7-1 against the Chiefs, but since then, it is 0-6.
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The team with the better quarterback has won this rivalry consistently, and BetQL’s model favors the Chiefs to continue this trend as a two-star moneyline bet. Our model also favors under the 48.5 point total, as the Broncos have scored more than 20 points just once this season and have been inefficient at turning possessions into points.
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