When Bijan Robinson (No. 8 overall) and Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12 overall) were taken as top-dozen picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, they became the highest-selected combination of running backs since Leonard Fournette (No. 4 overall) and Christian McCaffrey (No. 8) in the 2017 class.
Given the controversy over the reality value of running backs and the recent history of teams being reluctant to use a first-round pick on the position, Robinson and Gibbs were still special enough to be taken early by the Falcons and Lions, respectively.
With that elite, three-down talent for each comes rookie hype in fantasy football. While Robinson landed in Atlanta, the NFL's No. 3 rushing yardage team last season, Gibbs also scored with Detroit, the NFL's No. 3 rushing TD team last season.
Ahead of preseason Week 1 in half-point PPR leagues, Robinson is the consensus RB3 behind only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, ranking No. 6 overall with an average draft position (ADP) of No. 9 overall. Gibbs, meanwhile, is ranked RB15 and No. 35 overall with an ADP of No. 36 overall.
Robinson no doubt will go earlier in drafts than Gibbs, but who's the better value and return on investment? Here's the head-to-head breakdown:
Bijan Robinson fantasy outlook, projection 2023
The Falcons' running backs accounted for 2,209 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs last season. They averaged 4.9 yards per carry in a grounded Arthur Smith offense that called run plays over 55 percent of the time.
In the passing game, those backs turned a combined 66 targets into 43 receptions for 333 yards and one more TD. Although the Falcons have only 80 vacated backfield touches from 2022, Robinson was drafted to eat into a chunk of the workload previously handed to Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson.
The Falcons won't be changing their offensive identity much in the full-time QB transition from Marcus Mariota to second-year man Desmond Ridder. Running remains a key behind a top-blocking line anchored by right guard Chris Lindstrom and right tackle Kaleb McGary.
If the situation and atmosphere sound great for Robinson, that would bode well for his immense skills. He can dominate as a power runner and also thrive catching passes when needed. He's also a strong finisher in the red zone. The only concern is whether the Falcons stay competitive enough in games after finishing last in the NFC South last season to ensure more than 300 touches.
That's the key threshold for Robinson to pay off his lofty ranking and ADP. Should he push 400 touches, he can be fantasy's top-scoring RB in 2023. With some real questions around every key back after McCaffrey and Ekeler, Robinson carries the highest floor, most upside, and most certainty.
Should Robinson get 300 carries, the expectation should be around 1,500 rushing yards with about 300 more receiving and around a dozen TDs. There's no discount there. You will be using a premium first-round fantasy pick to get those services.
That's plenty to ask out of Robinson, but there's no indication the Falcons won't be committed to loading him up under Smith. Keep in mind Smith also was there in Tennessee during Derrick Henry's rise to explosive high-volume dominance. Robinson, with his receiving ability, comes into the league as a much more complete back, to boot.
Jahmyr Gibbs fantasy outlook, projection 2023
Gibbs wasn't far behind Robinson on most teams' real draft boards in April. He should be considered close to Robinson on fantasy football draft boards in August, too.
Gibbs follows the Raiders' Josh Jacobs (last year's NFL touches and scrimmage yards leader) and Steelers' Najee Harris as another top young back out of Alabama. Although Jacobs and Harris had high expectations, Gibbs has even greater ones.
The Lions have the most vacated running back carries (351) and touches (421) in the league going into 2023. They blew up a successful duo of Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift, adding Gibbs after also signing David Montgomery in free agency. When combining the work of Williams, Swift, and Justin Jackson last season, it added up to 2,341 scrimmage yards and 27 TDs on 475 touches. Swift was the most explosive runner (5.5 yards per carry) and busiest receiver (48 catches on 78 targets, 389 yards, three TDs).
In the simplest term and most convenient definition, Gibbs has been perceived to take over Swift's pass-catching role, while Montgomery steps into a primary power back void created by Williams. But Williams' 17 TDs were super anomalous, and Montgomery wasn't known as an easy scorer in Chicago. Furthermore, Montgomery was also a good receiver when needed.
Gibbs also comes in with prolific rushing ability. He has limited college mileage, also having played for Georgia Tech before Alabama. Gibbs had the luxury of not being overworked by Nick Saban because the Crimson Tide also had another future first-round prospect in Jase McLellan.
The Lions passed 56 percent of the time last season, so almost a flip of the Falcons. The Falcons, from their entire backfield, had 2,542 scrimmage yards and 17 TDs. The Lions got 82 receptions on 119 targets for 684 yards and four TDs from their running backs, doubling the output of the Falcons' backs.
The question is, with backfield pies similar and more TD leaning with the Lions, can Gibbs get a big enough piece to better outperform his lower ADP and ranking than Robinson can with his loftier draft status? Gibbs also has one of the league's best run-blocking lines on a better overall offense.
The Lions, with ace offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, averaged more than 60 yards of offense and more than five points of scoring compared to the Falcons. Status quo beyond Robinson and Gibbs says similar results will be available.
The reports from training camp are the Lions plan to split the work between Gibbs and Montgomery, with Gibbs being used more as a receiver in certain sets. However, the Lions didn't invest such a high pick in Gibbs to be even with a pedestrian Montgomery, who averaged just 3.9 yards per carry in his Bears career while never staying healthy for a full season. Montgomery also has yet to score more than eight rushing TDs in a season.
The Verdict:
Robinson is the slightly better talent, but Gibbs is also elite. Robinson already needs to be completely dominant to live up to his RB3 preseason ranking. Gibbs should earn enough high-leverage touches to deliver in the top 10, outperforming his ADP. Gibbs is the better value pick, and no one should be surprised that his situation with the Lions comes with a high-enough ceiling to even outscore Robinson.
