After avoiding a multi-week suspension last season, Alvin Kamara is set to serve a three-game ban in 2023, prompting fantasy football owners to ponder his value in upcoming drafts. While he's been mostly consistent and solid in his first six professional seasons, averaging at least 14.1 PPR points, Kamara's numbers and efficiency took a dip last season. With New Orleans inking one RB via free agency and expending a third-round pick on another, it will be a tough task for Kamara to extend his streak of six-straight top-16 PPR finishes.
On top of his suspension, Kamara's considered a high injury risk via DraftSharks' injury predictor. Kamara missed two games dealing with rib issues in '22 after missing four games with a knee injury in '21, so there are undoubtedly some increased risks beyond his suspension and potentially decreased workload that should factor into his '23 ADP.
Below, we'll break down Kamara's 2023 fantasy outlook and decide whether he's a smart draft pick in fantasy football leagues.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2023 Fantasy Cheat Sheet
How long is Alvin Kamara suspended 2023?
Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the 2023 NFL season for a violation of the league's personal conduct policy. He'll miss the Saints' first three contests against the Titans, Panthers, and Packers, but he's eligible to make his season debut in Week 4, an Oct. 1 home tilt against the Buccaneers.
In the meantime, the Saints will rely on free-agent acquisition Jamaal Williams and 2023 third-round pick, Kendre Miller to shoulder the backfield workload. Miller suffered a knee sprain in the Saints' first preseason game on Aug. 13, but he's expected to return in time for Week 1. Elsewhere on the depth chart, undrafted free agent Ellis Merriweather is listed as the team's fourth running back along with do-it-all TE Taysom Hill posing as a threat to steal some rushing attempts here and there.
2023 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Alvin Kamara's 2023 fantasy ranking and ADP
With Kamara's suspension factored into his preseason ranking, SN Fantasy has him ranked as the No. 28 RB in PPR formats and the No. 32 RB in standard ones. Additionally, with the increased competition for touches in the backfield coupled with Kamara posting his least efficient season in terms of his rush EPA per carry (-0.18), Kamara's preseason ranking is the lowest it's been since his rookie season.
FantasyPros has Kamara's ADP at No. 57 overall in PPR formats and No. 63 overall in standard ones. His ADP translates to the overall RB20 in PPR formats and the RB28 in standard ones. Given Kamara's consistency as a pass-catcher, he's always been seen as a better draft pick in PPR formats, and although his early-down and red-zone usage could take a hit with Williams and Miller carving out roles, he's still one of the most dynamic receiving backs in the NFL.
In PPR formats, other RBs coming off the board around the same time as Kamara include Kenneth Walker (RB18), Miles Sanders (RB19), Cam Akers (RB21), and Rachaad White (RB22). In standard formats, those RBs include David Montgomery (RB26), Isiah Pacheco (RB27), Rachaad White (RB29), and Brian Robinson Jr. (RB30).
2023 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Top 200 | S-Flex | IDP
Alvin Kamara's fantasy outlook 2023
While his three-game suspension plus the additions of Williams and Miller limit Kamara's ceiling, he's still an enticing draft pick as the overall RB20 in PPR formats. Despite scoring a career-low four TDs last year, Kamara still averaged over 14 PPR points per game while posting the third-highest target share (18.2 percent) among RBs. His ADP has ticked up a bit now that his three-game suspension is official, but even as a fifth or sixth-round pick, there's still some value in drafting him as a borderline RB3.
2023 FANTASY SLEEPERS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Each Team
While DraftSharks' injury predictor pegs Kamara as a "high risk", he's been rather durable throughout his six-year career, playing in at least 15 games in four of six seasons. Yes, injury is always a concern and one can occur on any given play, but with Kamara's usage likely dropping, there's a higher probability he avoids a multi-week setback this season. Kamara's usage in the running game spiked the past two seasons, as he averaged 18.46 attempts per game in '21 and 14.87 in '22.
2023 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Ks | Overall
After averaging 11.2 attempts per game in his first four seasons, his usage spike resulted in his yards per carry decreasing from 5.0 YPC in '17-20 to 3.9 YPC in '21-22. Now that he likely won't shoulder as significant of a workload, his efficiency numbers have a chance to climb back to what they were from '17-'20 when he was less of a factor in the ground game. Of course, that caps his upside in standard formats, but he's long been seen as a better fantasy play in PPR formats.
2023 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST
Even though you won't be able to start Kamara until Week 4, with his ADP at a low point, a buy-low opportunity exists on one of the game's best pass-catching backs. Don't expect an RB1 type of finish from him, but if you have the right expectations, it's hard to pass up drafting the Saints' RB1 in the fifth or sixth round.
