When the 49ers travel to face the Seahawks to open Week 15 on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video), it's a battle of two teams going in different directions offensively and defensively. That creates plenty of start 'em, sit 'em headaches for nervous fantasy football owners in the first round of the playoffs.
San Francisco comes with fill-in rookie QB Brock Purdy starting his first road game in a hostile environment while battling injuries to his oblique and ribs. Seattle will hope rookie running back Kenneth Walker will be up to the challenge against the NFL's toughest run defense after missing Week 14's home loss to Carolina with an ankle injury.
The 49ers just lost wide receiver Deebo Samuel (knee, ankle) for a while, so more will be on running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle, and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to replace his running and receiving production to support Purdy.
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith has had a surprisingly great fantasy-relevant season with his talented wide receivers, but his first game against the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 2 marked his worst performance of the season.
With all that in mind, here's a fantasy football breakdown of what should be a medium-scoring matchup:
WEEK 15 FANTASY PICKS: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
49ers: Who to start or sit in fantasy football on Thursday night
Sit: QB Brock Purdy
Purdy will be handing off a lot here. In the Seahawks' past three losses to the Buccaneers, Raiders, and Panthers, they have given up an average of 39 rushing attempts. The Seahawks are a tricky pass defense with Uchenna Nwosu leading a good pass rush and rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen helping to shut things down in the secondary. Purdy is facing a lot of road pressure given his experience and injury status. The 49ers will undoubtedly go run-heavy, so you can't expect him to get by on TDs again.
MORE TNF: FD lineup | DK lineup | Walker update
Start: RB Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey will be the biggest beneficiary of Deebo Samuel (leg) being out because he's the same kind of dynamic rushing and receiving hybrid. The Seahawks will have little success slowing him down in either capacity. He's a good bet for 150 scrimmage yards and at least one TD.
WEEK 15 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Start: RB Jordan Mason
The 49ers also will be careful with McCaffrey's workload in a short week even though they were able to rest him and some of their regulars late in Sunday's rout of the Buccaneers. Mason should be busy cleaning up with double-digit carries again, which can lead to huge gains against the league's second-worst run defense.
Sit: WR Brandon Aiyuk | WR Jauan Jennings
The Samuel injury helps Aiyuk in one sense, but it hurts him because he will get the most coverage attention. With Woolen, Mike Jackson, and Coby Bryant, the Seahawks have the corners to contain Aiyuk and San Francisco's other wideouts, including Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud.
WEEK 15 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Start: TE George Kittle
The Seahawks have had massive trouble covering tight ends all season, and San Francisco should avoid testing their playmaking corners. Kittle can dominate this matchup and be a big factor playing off the run down the seam. He will have one of his blowup games, similar to what we saw in a similarly favorable matchup against Arizona a few weeks ago (four catches, 86 yards, two TDs).
WEEK 15 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Start: K Robbie Gould
Gould continues to be money after all these years. Expect plenty of scoring opportunities in favorable conditions.
WEEK 15 DFS: Best values | Best stacks
Start: 49ers D/ST
Nick Bosa is healthy and had two sacks in this matchup back in Week 2. San Francisco can contain the Seahawks' scoring, and Geno Smith has been turning over the ball of late, too.
Seahawks: Who to start or sit in fantasy football on Thursday night
Sit: QB Geno Smith
Smith's worst games have come in the division against the 49ers and Cardinals. He will be rocked here often in a relatively low-scoring matchup. He's come through most weeks, but now's the time to pivot given what this D just did to Tom Brady and Tua Tagovailoa.
Start: RB Kenneth Walker III
The matchup is terrible, but he'll get the rock often and can deliver with short TDs. The rookie is just too talented to sit given how much volume he will eat up in his return.
Start: WR DK Metcalf
Metcalf has caught 72 passes on 110 targets for 869 yards and six TDs this year, and he's been even better lately, scoring in four of his past six games. Let's hope he does a little better than his 4-35 line in the first meeting.
Start: WR Tyler Lockett
Lockett has caught 71 passes on 99 targets for 896 yards and eight TDs this year, and he should be busy again after catching nine-of-11 targets for 107 yards in the first meeting between these teams.
Sit: TEs Noah Fant and Will Dissly
The 49ers cover the tight end well, and the Seahawks are fickle in incorporating extra targets after Metcalf and Lockett. If you're looking for a deep shot in DFS, look to the red-hot WR Marquise Goodwin in a revenge game.
Start: K Jason Myers
Myers has been racking up the points all season long because he's accurate and the Seahawks often stall in the red zone. Fire him up again.
Sit: Seahawks D/ST
When a team can't stop the run, it can't get into a position to rush the passer and earn fantasy points. Seattle has been a fun streamer, but that's over for this season.
49ers vs. Seahawks: FanDuel single-game lineup
- MVP (1.5X): RB Christian McCaffrey $17,500
- AnyFLEX: RB Kenneth Walker $12,500
- AnyFLEX: WR Tyler Lockett $11,500
- AnyFLEX: TE George Kittle $10,500
- AnyFLEX: RB Jordan Mason $7,000
McCaffrey, Mason, and Kittle are the "must-plays" from the 49ers based on the matchup. Lockett gives us the safest wideout floor based on potential negative game script. Walker is a bit contrarian, but he's a volume-based play.
49ers vs. Seahawks: DraftKings Showdown lineup
- Captain (1.5X): TE George Kittle $12,000
- FLEX: RB Christian McCaffrey $11,400
- FLEX: WR Tyler Lockett $10,200
- FLEX: WR Marquise Goodwin $6,400
- FLEX: 49ers D/ST $5,000
- FLEX: RB Jordan Mason $4,800
Here's that combination of McCaffrey and Mason again, with the correlating stack of San Francisco's D/ST. Captaining Kittle gives us the flexibility to get Lockett and Goodwin in there.
