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There are fewer third basemen in the Hall of Fame than any other position. This is in part because no one seems to know whether third base is an offense- or defense-first position. You can’t be a total defensive zero (that’s what first base is for), but you also can’t be all-glove and no-hit (that’s why Abner Doubleday created middle infielders). With no solid criteria, it’s hard to say what greatness looks like at the hot corner.
There certainly wasn’t a lot of offensive greatness on display last season. Only two third basemen hit above .300 (Adrian Beltre and Josh Harrison). No third baseman hit 30 or more home runs. Only one third baseman stole 20 bases (Todd Frazier).
Keep in mind that Harrison and Frazier both spent significant time at other positions, as did Anthony Rendon, Carlos Santana, and Martin Prado, among others. No wonder third base has a bit of an identity crisis.
Top of the Heap
After Miguel Cabrera, who should squeak by with 3B-eligibility in most leagues, it doesn’t get much better than the Blue Jays’ Josh Donaldson at third base. That’s before you even factor in the sweet mohawk/mullet he sported for much of last season. Still in the prime of his career and now in hitter-friendly Toronto, Donaldson should be the second 3B taken in spring drafts.
Donaldson’s former division, the AL West, is home to two other top 3B options: the Rangers’ Adrian Beltre and the Mariners’ Kyle Seager. Not to discriminate based on age, but I’ll take my chances on the 27-year-old Seager instead of the 36-year-old Beltre if given the choice.
I’m tempted to rate the Nationals’ Anthony Rendon ahead of both Beltre and Seager, but there’s a catch: Even though he’s penciled in as the Nats’ starting third baseman for 2015, he’ll be eligible at 2B this season. Plug him in your middle infield while you still can.
Rounding out the top tier of third basemen, Todd Frazier set a career-high in home runs last season while also tying his career-high in batting average. He played a lot of first base but will move across the diamond with Joey Votto back in the lineup. Frazier’s a better play at third base anyway.
You could also probably slot Carlos Santana as a top-tier third base option, but you’d be doing yourself a disservice. He’s a catcher. Put him behind the plate.
A Notch Below
The next tier of third basemen is headed by a group of guys who have shown the ability to produce enough that fantasy owners can focus their energies on upgrading other positions. These caretakers include Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval and Aramis Ramirez. They’ll hit some homers, they’ll drive in some runs and they’ll hit for a decent-to-good average – and all for a relatively inexpensive pick, depending on which one you pick.
If you’re looking for more upside, the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado took a big step forward at the plate last year, even if he’s known primarily for his glove. Arenado hit .287 with 18 homers despite missing considerable time due to injury and illness. He could be good for 20-plus home runs if he stays healthy.
Whether Manny Machado or David Wright rank in this tier depends on how confident you are in their ability to come back from injuries. Machado was having a strong sophomore season (.278 with 12 homers in 354 plate appearances) before a knee injury ended his season in August.
Wright struggled with a shoulder injury, which he decided to rehab in the offseason rather than having surgically repaired. Coming off a .269-8-63 season, the 32-year-old is well past his glory days. Both Machado and Wright are expected to be ready for opening day, but you’ll want to track their progress this spring.
Grab Bag
Once you get past Wright and Machado, a lot of the options start looking the same. Martin Prado and Josh Harrison are the best of the rest, but that’s not setting a very high bar. You could talk me into passing on them in favor of betting on continued progress from Lonnie Chisenhall, a bounce-back year from Matt Carpenter or a post-hype breakout from Xander Bogaerts.
STOCK WATCH
3 Up
1. Anthony Rendon, Nationals. Two years after the Nationals took Stephen Strasburg first overall and one year after they took Bryce Harper first overall, the Nats lucked into Rendon – widely seen as the top prospect in the 2011 draft before injury concerns arose – with the sixth pick. In his first full season, all he did was lead the team in WAR while hitting .287 with 21 homers. He’s just getting started.
2. Kyle Seager, Mariners. Casual baseball fans couldn’t pick Seager out of a lineup or tell you which team he plays for, but fantasy owners know him as the guy who hits home runs on the West Coast long after most people have gone to bed. Heading into his age-27 season, you can bank on Seager for 25 homers with an outside shot at 30.
3. Todd Frazier, Reds. You could have predicted Frazier’s increased batting average (.273 in 2014, up from .234 in 2013) after looking at his BABIP, but the increased power (17-percent HR/FB rate in 2014, up from 11.7 percent in 2013) and speed (20 SBs) were welcome surprises. We probably shouldn’t expect much more from him, especially the steals, but a repeat performance (or a close approximation) would make Frazier a top option at the hot corner.
3 Down
1. Mike Moustakas, Royals. For the third straight season, Moustakas saw his BABIP take a sharp decline (.220 last season). You could choose to view that as a sign that he’s due – long overdue, in fact – for better luck. Even so, his upside is probably a .250 average with 15-20 homers.
2. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates. Alvarez dealt with a foot injury late in the season, but that doesn’t fully explain his power outage (16.2-percent HR/FB rate, compared to 25 percent in 2012 and 26.3 percent in 2013). An offseason to heal and a position switch to first base might help him focus at the plate, but he’ll never hit for average given his propensity for strikeouts.
3. Chris Johnson, Braves. In 2013, Johnson finished second in the NL with a .321 batting average driven by a .394 BABIP. Any guesses on whether Johnson was able to sustain that ridiculously good luck in 2014? That would be what we in the industry call a “no.” Johnson hit .263 and set a career-high strikeout percentage.
BUST OR TRUST?
Josh Harrison, Pirates. A nondescript utility guy heading into 2014, Harrison took advantage of regular playing time and improved batted-ball luck to hit .315-13-52 with 18 steals across 550 plate appearances. The question is: Can he do it again? I’m hesitant to trust a guy whose success relied so heavily on BABIP, especially when his track record gave no indication of double-digit home run power. Expect a .280ish batting average with 10-12 steals and maybe 10 home runs. Not bad for a utility guy, but not enough for a mixed-league 3B. Verdict: Bust.
REMEMBER HIM?
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees. He’s baaaack. The most controversial player in the game, Alex Rodriguez will don the Yankee pinstripes once again after taking a season-long involuntary vacation in 2014. What should we expect from him? Let’s consider that: (a) he’s 39 years old, (b) he hasn’t played a real game since the Summer of “Blurred Lines,” and (c) the Yankees claim he’s not even guaranteed the starting job at third base. Suffice it to say that there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical.
That said, you could make an argument that a season away from the daily grind is just what the doctor ordered for a guy who will turn 40 this summer. More time at DH or first base might not be such a bad thing either. If A-Rod gets 450-500 at-bats, he’s good for at least 15 home runs and a solid average. If he’s still there in the last few rounds of your draft – and if you have no moral objections to benefitting from his performance – he’ll offer decent reward for little or no risk.
NEXT BIG THING
The Cubs poached Joe Maddon from the Rays (OK, allegedly poached him) and made some other shrewd moves in the offseason, but the biggest difference-maker to hit Chicago in 2015 might very well be uber-prospect Kris Bryant. The 23-year-old went beast mode in his first full season in the minors, hitting a combined .327/.428/.666 with 43 home runs, 34 doubles and 15 steals across Double-A and Triple-A. The Cubs kept him off the major league roster in 2014 largely for financial reasons, but Bryant should be hitting moonshots onto Waveland Avenue before the All-Star break, if not by the end of April. He might move to the outfield eventually given the Cubs’ glut of young infield talent, but Bryant is a must-stash at any position.
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