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Not to sound like a crazy old man, but I remember when first basemen mashed like wild beasts of fire.
Guys like Mark McGwire, Jeff Bagwell, Todd Helton and Carlos Delgado regularly approached or exceeded 40 home runs (in some cases, they well exceeded 40 homers) with batting averages hovering around .300. Yep, back in my day, first base was where sluggers spent their time between dingers.
Today’s current crop of first basemen doesn’t hold a candle to those glory days. In fact, as a group, first basemen just plain stunk in 2014:
- Fewest home runs by first basemen since the 1994 strike (666)
- Lowest batting average by first basemen since 1974 (.255)
- Composite line of .255/.331/.426
In effect, first basemen did their best Scott Spiezio impression last year.
Even though first base isn’t what it used to be, it’s still important to get a slugger – especially in today’s pitcher-friendly environment.
Solid Starters
The likelihood of a bounceback season from Miguel Cabrera makes him an easy pick as the top fantasy first baseman heading into 2015. Bounceback is a relative term, of course – Cabrera hit .313-25-109 in a “down” year.
I’d put guys like Jose Abreu, Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion a notch below Cabrera. They’ll hit for both power and average while driving in boatloads of runs. That’s what first basemen are supposed to do.
You could convince me to round out the top five with Adrian Gonzalez, who isn’t flashy but is remarkably consistent. There’s something to be said for being in the lineup every day.
Freddie Freeman offers the same kind of reliability, but he strikes me as a B-plus player who lacks one really strong tool. Albert Pujols recovered nicely from a disastrous 2013, but he wouldn’t make the top 10 in a more competitive environment.
Brandon Moss offers dependable power if healthy, but he strikes out too much to hit for average. If any or all of the three guys below hit like they should, Moss could become a borderline starter in mixed leagues.
Damaged Goods?
Much was made of the rash of Tommy John surgeries that befell Major League Baseball last season, but first base also felt the wrath of injuries. Three of the top 10 fantasy options – Paul Goldschmidt (hand), Prince Fielder (neck) and Joey Votto (quadriceps) – missed significant portions of their seasons. Fortunately, all three are expected to be healthy for opening day.
Of the three, Goldschmidt offers the most upside and should probably be among the first five 1Bs off the board assuming he has a good (read: injury-free) spring. He’s the rare first baseman who combines 30-homer power with the speed to steal 15 bases.
Fielder had two discs in his neck fused, but was already taking batting practice last September. He never really got going last year, but you’d expect good things to result from putting Fielder in Rangers Ballpark.
If healthy, Votto is a threat to hit .300 and approach 30 home runs, which makes it frustrating when he doesn’t take his bat off his shoulders. Since 2012, he has taken 61.8 percent of the pitches he has seen, tied with Mike Trout for fifth in the majors. (Funny how no one accuses Trout of being too selective.)
The Other Guys
After the first 12 legitimate mixed-league starters, there’s a deep sub-strata of decent options.
Lucas Duda, Mets. Cut down his strikeouts and thrived once Ike Davis left town. Taking him in front of Brandon Moss wouldn’t be the craziest idea ever.
Justin Morneau, Rockies. Enjoyed his first season as a Rockie (11 of his 17 homers came at Coors Field) and could hit 20-plus home runs with more playing time. I probably don’t give him as much credit as I should.
Mark Trumbo, D-backs. Should put up good numbers in a hitters park, but has to stay healthy. Missed 74 games last year but still managed 14 homers.
Billy Butler, A’s. Tanked in his walk year and ended up in an even worse hitter’s park in Oakland. However, Butler could benefit from being far away from his bar-b-que establishments in K.C.
Brandon Belt, Giants. Failed to capitalize on his strong 2013 campaign due to injuries, but entering his prime. Even so, what’s his ceiling – maybe 20 homers with a .285 average if everything breaks right?
Matt Adams, Cardinals. Somehow managed to hit two fewer homers in 2014 than in 2013 despite getting 244 more at-bats. Struggles against lefties, so he could be stuck in a platoon.
Mark Teixeira, Yankees. Could reach 30 homers if he played a full season, but reduced at-bats isn’t the worst thing when a .250 batting average is your ceiling.
Eric Hosmer, Royals. Could still turn into the player Royals fans want him to be, but that’s only wish-casting at this point.
Mike Napoli, Red Sox. Much less appealing without catcher eligibility. He’s good for 20 homers and a subpar batting average -- if he stays on the field.
Joe Mauer, Twins. Much less appealing without catcher eligibility … or home runs … or batting average.
Steve Pearce, Orioles. Quad-A player came out of nowhere to hit 21 home runs in limited duty with the Orioles, but his HR/FB rate (17.5 percent compared to a 10.3-percent career mark) warns of regression ahead.
STOCK WATCH
3 Up
1. Jose Abreu, White Sox. The Cuban import made his debut at 27, an age when hitters typically peak, and proceeded to set the majors on fire. It’s probably not realistic to expect him to hit over .300 again (his .356 BABIP is due for at least a little regression), but the power is real. Abreu is as safe a bet as anyone to lead the majors in home runs. He’s a legitimate first-rounder.
2. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs. On the other side of Chicago, Rizzo enjoyed a breakout season (.286-32-78) as the standard-bearer for the Cubs’ youth movement. Entering his fifth season, Rizzo is only 25 and should continue to produce like a mixed-league starter for years to come. You could quibble with his modest RBI total, but that number should improve along with the rest of the Cubs offense.
3. Victor Martinez, Tigers. Another data point for those who believe in the “contract year effect,” Martinez set career highs in home runs (32) and batting average (.335) as a 35-year-old. Martinez’s HR/FB ratio spiked well above his career norm, so I’d caution against expecting a repeat performance. Still, he makes good contact and doesn’t strike out much, so he’s a safe bet to hit over .300 again. That said, he’ll get a late start to 2015 after having offseason knee surgery.
3 Down
1. Chris Davis, Orioles. Remember when we thought Davis was a first-rounder? His BABIP promptly cratered, resulting in a .196 batting average. For good measure, Davis got popped for amphetamines and missed the last two weeks of the season. Even so, Davis hit 26 home runs and ranked among the league leaders in AB/HR. With better luck on balls in play, Davis would be an asset again.
2. Joey Votto, Reds. A quadriceps injury shelved Votto for the second half, but he didn’t do much when he was healthy either. Batting .255-6-23 in 220 at-bats, Votto heard the usual complaints about his reluctance to swing. An injury risk heading into 2015, Votto still has the track record to suggest a .300 average with 25-plus home runs is possible.
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals. Postseason heroics aside, Hosmer disappointed in all five standard Roto categories and failed to reach double-digits in either home runs or steals. He has four seasons under his belt, but is only 25 years old. Power often is the last tool to develop, but Hosmer might not top 20 home runs as long as he plays half his games in Kauffman Stadium.
BUST OR TRUST?
Albert Pujols, Angels. Pujols set a wide range of career-lows in 2013: home runs, runs batted in, games played, batting average and more. After an offseason to heal from foot and knee injuries, he bounced back in 2014 with a .272-28-105 line in nearly 700 plate appearances. That’s nowhere near peak Prince Albert levels of production, but it’s good enough to merit attention as a top-five fantasy option at first base. Even in decline, Pujols is better than the Freddie Freemans and Adam LaRoches of the world. Verdict: Trust.
The Part-Timers and Converted
The defensive requirements for first basemen can roughly be summarized as follows: “Stand by first base.” Given this relatively low bar, teams often use first base as a way to give their catchers a breather while keeping their bat in the lineup. This is how you end up with guys like Carlos Santana, Brian McCann and Buster Posey enjoying dual catcher-first base eligibility. However, unless you find yourself in the position of owning both Buster Posey and Jonathan Lucroy, you’ll want to keep your stud backstop behind the plate.
First base also is used as a witness relocation program for third basemen with questionable defensive skills. I’m looking at you, Ryan Zimmerman and Pedro Alvarez. With Adam LaRoche out of Washington, Ryan Zimmerman is expected to take over at first base, effectively solving his throwing issues. Similarly, the Pirates are likely to solve their first-base problem by moving Pedro Alvarez across the diamond. Until they lose their eligibility at third base, though, you’re better off using Alvarez and Zimmerman at the hot corner.
Questionable Qualifiers
Depending on how stringent your league is about position eligibility, a number of quasi-first basemen might qualify. However, keep in mind that most players are more valuable at other positions. For example, Jonathan Lucroy (16 games started at first base) is much more of an asset when compared to other catchers than first basemen. The same goes for Jose Bautista (11 games started at first base), who makes more of an impact as an outfielder.
A pure designated hitter like David Ortiz is the Platonic ideal of a faux first baseman. Big Papi started just five games at first base last season, but he would have ranked as a mixed-league starter at the position thanks to his 35 home runs and 104 RBIs. If you can slide him in as a corner infielder, even better.
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