When Washington and Texas faced off in the Alamo Bowl last season, the Longhorns were a 3.5-point favorite and the Total was 66.5 points. This year, the stakes are more significant as Texas vs. Washington takes place in the Sugar Bowl as one of the CFP semifinal games.
The betting line is not too different this time with Texas listed as the favorite at and the Total at .
Washington fans would be happy if the outcome were similar since their team won 27-20. But the Texas team they'll face this year may have something to say about that.
Let's take a look at the odds, props, and some predictions for Texas vs. Washington.
CFP semifinal odds: Huskies underdog for third time this season in Sugar Bowl
Washington supporters may not like seeing their team listed as the underdog in this game, but they need to remember a few key points:
- The Huskies were underdogs twice this season, vs. Oregon State (+1) and vs. Oregon in the Pac-12 title game (+10). They beat the Beavers by two and the Ducks by a field goal.
- Texas was favored in the Alamo Bowl last season, but Washington won 27-20.
- Underdogs have won outright in 13 bowl games (as of Thursday night) and ATS in 17.
- The underdogs won in both CFP semifinal games last year.
It has been a solid bowl season for underdogs this year. Here are live college football betting odds for Texas vs. Washington:
Texas betting trends and news
- Texas' record: 12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS.
- OVER was 5-8 for Texas and 1-2 when the TOTAL was 60+ points.
- Texas was 1-1-1 ATS this season when the spread was under 7 points.
- Longhorns were 3-1 SU and ATS vs. ranked opponents.
- Favorites in CFP semifinal games have won outright in 12 of 18 games and are 10-8 ATS.
- Texas is 4-11 ATS under Steve Sarkisian when favored by +7 or less or the underdog, -7 or less.
- No. 3 seeds have gone 5-4 SU and 5-4 ATS in CFP semifinal games but are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six years.
- No. 3 seeds are 3-1 SU and ATS in CFP semifinal games when listed as the favorite.
- OVER is 8-10 in CFP semifinal games and 4-3 when the TOTAL was 60+ points.
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Washington betting trends and news
- Washington's record: 13-0 SU, 6-6-1 ATS.
- OVER was 6-7 for Washington and 3-6 when the TOTAL was 60+ points.
- Washington was 2-0 SU and ATS when an underdog.
- No. 2 seeds won outright and ATS in four of the first five CFP but are 0-4 SU and ATS in the last four.
- This season, Washington is 4-0 SU and 2-1-1 ATS vs. ranked opponents.
- Undefeated teams are 9-5 in CFP semifinal games.
- Kalen DeBoer is 1-0 SU and 1-0 ATS in bowl games (he did not coach Fresno State in the 2021 New Mexico Bowl).
- OVER is 2-2 when Washington has played a ranked opponent.
- Since 1936, there have been 63 undefeated national champions, five in the CFP Era.
Players opting out/entering the transfer portal/injured ahead of Sugar Bowl
No significant players have opted out or entered the transfer portal for either team.
Injuries
Texas vs. Washington: Sugar Bowl player props
To score 2+ touchdowns
In last year's CFP semifinal games, all four teams combined to score 179 points. Washington had the top passing game in the country this season and scored 61 touchdowns on offense. Texas has a top-ten offense (total yards) and recorded 50 touchdowns on offense this season.
Both teams had respectable defenses, but when offenses are as prolific as these two, that may not matter.
Several players on both teams have recorded 2+ touchdowns in a game this season:
- Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell had two.
- Washington running back Dillon Johnson had three.
- Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze had five, including a three-game stretch at the end of the regular season.
- Washington wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk had two.
Texas running back Jonathan Brooks had three, but since he is out for the season with an injury, the Longhorns have used a running-back-by-committee approach, making it hard to predict how well any of their backs will produce.
For additional coverage of touchdown scorer props for Texas vs. Washington, click here!
To throw an interception
Throwing interceptions was not a major issue for either Quinn Ewers or Michael Penix Jr., with Ewers throwing six and Penix Jr. throwing nine. But both defenses ranked No. 8 in the country in interceptions, with 16 on the season.
For additional coverage of player props for Texas vs. Washington, click here!
Texas vs. Washington analysis
Both teams will likely do whatever it takes to get their passing games on track early on. Washington had the No. 1 passing offense in the country this season (343.8 ypg). While Texas wasn't quite as prolific, the Longhorns still threw for 280+ ypg.
Neither may have trouble doing so. Both teams have struggled to defend against the pass this year. Washington has allowed over 263.2 ypg (No. 120), and Texas has allowed 240.8 (No. 93).
Of course, the X factor for both teams could be establishing the run. Texas has done a decent job the last few weeks using the committee approach, with backs combining for 123, 302, and 198 in their final two regular-season games and the Big 12 title championship.
Washington has an excellent running back in Dillon Johnson. Despite the offense leaning on the passing game all season, he ran for 1,113 yards and scored 14 touchdowns. In the five games, he had 20+ carries, gained 100+ yards in four, and recorded eight touchdowns.
But he'll have a hard time finding lanes against a Texas defense that has held teams to 80.8 rushing ypg.
Washington's defense has been respectable vs. the run, allowing 133.8 ypg (No. 38). However, since teams often had to play catch-up against the Huskies and were forced to throw, that number may be misleading.
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Bet(s) to consider
OVER
This game features two prolific, high-scoring offenses facing lackluster secondaries. We will see a lot of points scored in this game. These teams combined for just 47 points last season (TOTAL was 66.5), but both offenses are much better this season.
Rome Odunze to score 2+ touchdowns
With a trip to the national title game on the line, Michael Penix Jr. will target his best wide receiver every chance he gets. Odunze recorded 2+ in five games this season. It would not be shocking to see him make it six.
Michael Penix Jr. to throw an interception
We don't like Ewers throwing a pick because we think Texas will try harder to establish a run game than Washington. With fewer throws, he'll be less likely to throw an interception. But the Huskies live and die via the passing game.
Penix Jr. has averaged 35.8 attempts a game this season. It would not be shocking to see him throw the ball 40+ times vs. Texas. Six of his nine interceptions came in games where he had 37+ pass attempts.
Same-game parlay at BetMGM
- Michael Penix Jr., to throw an interception -177
- Rome Odunze, OVER 99.5 receiving yards +100
- Same game parlay odds: +215
If putting money down on minus-money odds does not sound appealing, consider pairing Penix to throw an interception with Odunze to have over 99.5 yards receiving. As often as Penix will throw, there is a good chance he throws a pick.
Odunze had 100+ yards in his last four games and nine of 13 this season. It would be surprising if he did not have a 100+ yard day.
For more bets to consider, click on our Texas vs. Washington ATTD post and player props post!
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