LAS VEGAS — Texas lost talented tailback Bijan Robinson, but it is in the thick of the national-title picture with a No. 3 ranking because quarterback Quinn Ewers is authoring a career season.
The Longhorns last tasted national significance in 2009, which they capped with a national-title defeat to Alabama. Four years earlier, the Horns captured their last crown.
Kansas crashed the national rankings itself this week with a dynamic offense of its own, and this is one of only two games on the slate that pits two top-20 efficient offensive machines against each other.
So we expect plenty of fireworks and plenty of points.
- NCAAF – Saturday (9/30) @ 3:30 p.m. ET
- Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
- Line: Texas -17, 64
No. 24 Kansas Jayhawks at No. 3 Texas Longhorns Odds
Our Pick: Over 62 (-110)
In five of their past six meetings, these two have averaged 62 points. Fortunately, a national ABC television audience gets to watch this track meet.
In points per play, one of the few stats that we value, Texas (0.524) is 18th, Kansas (0.515) is 20th.
(The weekend’s only other tilt featuring two PPP top-20s is No. 11 Notre Dame at No. 10 Duke, so look for the scoreboard operator in Durham, N.C., to be busy, too.)
We project that this total — which opened 66.5, got bet down to 62 and has been pumped back up to 64 — will bust 70.
No. 24 Kansas Jayhawks (4-0, 2-2 ATS)
A capsule on Rock Chalk pigskin and third-year coach Lance Leipold must start with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
This is the brain trust that guided Buffalo to a 10-win campaign in 2018, plus bowl victories to cap the ensuing two seasons. By far, that’s the best run in the 34-year history of the Bulls program.
After winning only one of his final seven games last season, the KU administration gave Leipold a contract extension before the Liberty Bowl. A 1-6 run deserves a reward? The brass in Lawrence wisely thought so.
Arkansas beat the Hawks, 55-53, in that bowl game.
That wide-open, entertaining style is what this game might resemble, as Kotelnicki unleashes a variety of looks and options to confuse foes.
Junior quarterback Jalon Daniels, with a 17th-rated QBR of 173, is the field general that Texas coach Steve Sarkisian knows will be a handful.
“He’s a real dual threat,” Sarkisian said Monday. “I think the natural thing is we think about the runs that he has for explosive plays, but he throws the ball all over the place.”
The Jayhawks, thanks to Kotelnicki, will show many options, and one includes Jason Bean’s insertion at tailback and ultimately throwing the ball.
There are triple options, split-back sets, jet-motion sweeps, unbalanced spreads, tight-end hijinks and other trickery to keep defenses on their heels.
KU averages 38 points, and its schemes keep producing points in Austin.
No. 24 Kansas at No. 3 Texas Full Sportsbook Odds
No. 3 Texas Longhorns (4-0, 2-2 ATS)
Robinson dashed for 1,580 yards last season and 18 touchdowns, and he finished ninth in the Heisman Trophy voting. In his three seasons, he tallied 41 TDs for the burnt-orange faithful.
Six-foot, 204-pound sophomore Jonathan Brooks has taken over and averages 5.6 yards on 65 carries, on track for a 1,000-yard campaign. He has three TDs, one through the air. CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue are effective reserves.
Ewers, though, deserves a heap of credit for leading the Horns to that 34-24 triumph at Alabama, and he’s eyeing a 3,000-yard season.
As a freshman, he completed 58.1% of his attempts for 2,177 yards, 15 TDs and six interceptions.
This year, his completion rate is 64.3%. He has nine TDs and no interceptions, and Ewers owns a QBR of 168.3, 23rd in the game.
His danger target has been 6-foot-4, 241-pound junior tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders, who has averaged 22.3 yards on a dozen catches. Receivers Xavier Worthy (13.3 average, 19 receptions) and Adonal Mitchell (15, 12) have both scored three TDs.
Ewers likely knows to avoid Kansas No. 3, 6-foot-1, 185-pound cornerback Mello Dotson. He’s a top-five national figure in defending passes, and he also made the all-league academic first team a year ago.
It’s a fine Texas rush defense, whose yield of 2.7 yards per run is top-10 nationally, that we envision forcing the Jayhawks to the air, fueling a likely wild game.
The Horns average 35 points, and we see them hitting 40.
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The last time these two played here, Kansas won, 57-56.
“In a weird way, I’m kind of glad it happened,” Sarkisian said. “It exposed some warts in our program that needed to get removed.”
Alas, perhaps one or two did not get extracted. Kotelnicki’s playbook will test, if not frustrate, the Longhorns’ defense, and Ewers is fully prepared to deliver counter punches.
We peg this as one of the day’s most-entertaining games, justifying a unit on the Over. Just bring enough buttered popcorn and ice for the drinks.
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