The end of the Big Ten/ACC challenge was disappointing for many basketball fans and sports bettors, but the start of a new yearly challenge between the ACC and SEC has made for a great replacement. One of the best matchups of this year's version is set for tonight when Texas A&M visits Virginia.
This has the makings of a matchup between two potential NCAA Tournament teams, with both entering the game with only one loss. The Aggies are 6-1 overall and 5-2 against the spread this season. Texas A&M has had an excellent start to the season against some strong competition. The Aggies have wins over Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa State, and their only loss was to a Florida Atlantic squad that made the Final Four last year.
With only one loss at 5-1, Virginia has also played a challenging schedule. Their one loss was against Wisconsin and they boast wins over Florida and West Virginia. Note that the two teams have contrasting styles; the Cavaliers' last four games have hit the UNDER on total points, while the Aggies have hit the OVER total points in their last three.
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Texas A&M Aggies betting news
The Aggies' hot start and solid play are primarily due to their offense, as they rank seventh in the country in Kenpom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. We mentioned how Texas A&M has played a tough schedule, backed up by their 27th-ranked strength of schedule on Kenpom. This metric can be slightly misleading before conference play starts.
There are weaker teams that play exceptionally tough schedules to start the season as a way to help fund their program. For example, the worst team (No. 362) in the Kenpom rankings, Mississippi Valley State, has the seventh-most difficult schedule. If we compare the Aggies to the top 50 teams, they have the third-most difficult schedule. Basically, Texas A&M has played a gauntlet, and their 6-1 record is impressive.
Wade Taylor has led the way in scoring for Texas A&M with a 20-point average, which is good for 40th in the country. The junior point guard may be small at just 6-foot, which may be generous, but regardless of size he is a volume shooter and scorer.
However, there is room for improvement, as Taylor's efficiency has not been very good. He is shooting just 40.5% from the floor and 26.7% from three. After shooting 35.6% from three as a sophomore, it is reasonable to think he will continue to get more efficient. This should only raise his scoring average because Taylor averages 16.5 field goal attempts nightly.
The Aggies would be wise to get more opportunities for their second-leading scorer, Henry Coleman III (14.2 ppg). He leads the team in rebounding with 8.3 a game, field goal percentage at 72.1% and free throw percentage at 85.2%. Coleman ranks eighth in the nation in field goal percentage, so if the Aggies would get him more opportunities, it is not hard to imagine him getting closer to 20 points every time out.
Texas A&M Aggies season-long futures bets
The Aggies' quick start has them in the AP top 25, and they are in a similar spot odds-wise for making a Final Four and winning a National Championship. They're also one of the odds favorites to compete for a regular season SEC Title.
- Win National Championship +5000 at FanDuel
- Make the Final Four +1100 at FanDuel
- Win the SEC +700 at BetMGM
Virginia Cavaliers betting news
The Cavaliers' play style could not be more different from Texas A&M. The Aggies have the 27th ranked tempo/pace in Kenpom, while Virginia ranks 362 of 362 teams in tempo. Very few will blow Virginia out because they will limit possessions, force you to play defense for the entire shot clock and play great defense.
While the Cavaliers' 65.3 ppg as a team is not impressive, their 53.8 ppg against more than makes up for it. That does not mean the Cavaliers don't have some players who can score the basketball. It is much more of a team effort, though, than having one player as the go-to scorer like Taylor is for Texas A&M.
Four players average over eight points, and on any given night a different player could be Virginia's leading scorer. Four different players have been the leading scorer over Virginia's six games. At 6-foot-8, Ryan Dunn is the team's second-leading scorer (10.3 ppg) and leading rebounder (7 rpg). An efficient scorer shooting 54.1% from the field, Dunn will likely be at the top of Texas A&M's scouting report.
The Cavaliers' third- and fourth-leading scorers, Isaac McKneely (9.8 ppg) and Jacob Groves (8 ppg), are dangerous shooters. Each player averages at least three long-range attempts per game. McKneely shoots 55% from three, and Groves shoots 44.4% from three.
The Cavaliers will let leading scorer Reece Beekman (11.8 ppg) run the show at point guard and try to typically get Dunn a touch each possession. If defenses try to limit them, Beekman is great at finding his shooters as he averages 5.8 assists, good for 23rd in the nation. Considering Virginia plays the slowest tempo in all of college, Beekman's assists average is rather impressive.
Virginia Cavaliers season-long futures
Off to a great start this season, the Cavaliers have decent odds for their season-long success.
- Win National Championship +10000 at Caesars
- Make the Final Four +2500 at FanDuel
- Win the ACC +850 at FanDuel
Texas A&M vs. Virginia prediction: Aggies continue strong play and upset Cavs
Texas A&M is playing some of the best basketball of any team in the country. They have been doing it against Power Five opponents and are battle tested. While Virginia has played a few tough opponents, it is far from the schedule the Aggies have had to start the season.
Texas A&M will be ready to play, and their scoring prowess will be tough for Virginia to keep up with, even if they limit the Aggies' total possessions. This should be a close game, but Texas A&M will get the tough baskets late to get the win.
Pick: Texas A&M
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