Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds, props, predictions: Vols, Wildcats look to keep SEC East hopes alive

In their dream scenario, Kentucky and Tennessee envisioned this season being the one in which they would finally overcome Georgia.

Unless they get help from Florida, the winner of Saturday's SEC East clash between the two will just barely keep those hopes alive. The loser will find themselves under .500 in conference play.

This 7 p.m. ET matchup offers Kentucky an opportunity for a little revenge since it got rolled 44-6 at Neyland Stadium last season, making it eight losses in the last 10 matchups for Big Blue in this series. It last won back in 2020 (34-7), but hasn’t held serve at home since a 29-26 victory back in 2017.

We took all that and more into consideration in this analysis of Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds, props and predictions.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Volunteers vs. Wildcats:

The line opened at 3.5 and remained steady through early wagering, while the total was bet down slightly from 52.5.

More CFB Week 9 betting: Oregon vs. Utah odds, props, predictions | Pitt vs. Notre Dame odds props, predictions |  Duke vs. Louisville preview odds, props, predictions

Tennessee betting breakdown

Tennessee (5-2, 4-3) lost to the Gators in Gainesville last month and squandered a 20-7 halftime lead in Tuscaloosa last week, getting outscored 27-0 over the final 30 minutes. A costly late turnover took the life out of the Vols, who now have to go back on the road to prove they can put together a complete effort outside of Knoxville.

The Vols did win in Nashville against Virginia to open the season, but have now dropped their last four regular-season games outside the state of Tennessee.

Vols QB Joe Milton played arguably his best half in an orange uniform against the Crimson Tide, but adjustments made life difficult for him when it mattered most as he was smothered and given little time to operate comfortably.

The ball was knocked out of his hands and returned for a touchdown on the game’s decisive play in the fourth quarter. Milton threw for 175 of his 271 yards in the first half in helping Tennessee build a 20-7 lead at the break, connecting with Squirrel Wright eight times for 105 of those yards. UT’s top receiver had just two catches for a whopping five yards in the second half. 

We’ll see where Tennessee’s confidence is as they head back out on the road, particularly since they failed to pick up key first downs or capitalize in the red zone when it mattered most.

The Vols still have a date with Georgia in three weeks in Knoxville after visiting Missouri, so fulfilling their season-long goals remain within reach so long as they run the table and get a lot of breaks to go their way. However, if they fall here, getting a look at Milton’s backup, true freshman five-star recruit Nico Iamalavea would have to cross Josh Heupel’s mind.

Tennessee’s task was made tougher with the announcement that top corner Kamal Hadden will miss the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He was having a terrific season and will be tough to replace. 

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Kentucky betting breakdown

Kentucky (5-2, 4-3) entered October unbeaten but fell to Georgia and Missouri, losing both in lopsided fashion. The Bulldogs won 51-13 in Athens, and although the ‘Cats responded the right way in taking a 14-0 lead on Homecoming, Mizzou battled back, led at halftime and won 38-21 on the strength of a dominant fourth quarter.

As things stand, UK has one semi-impressive win, having throttled Florida in Lexington to close out a perfect September. Mark Stoops’ team comes off a bye and will now try to avoid going winless this month. They’re having another midseason lull, something that has become an unfortunate trend over the past few years.

The Wildcats lost a pair of key offensive players now getting work in the NFL in QB Will Levis and RB Chris Rodriguez, so they were always going to be hurting for playmakers this season and are still looking for answers in the final weekend of October.

NC State transfer Devin Leary has completed 24 of 53 passes in Kentucky’s last two losses (45.3 percent) for just 248 yards, netting just 4.6 yards per pass. He went just 9-for-19 for 69 yards in the win over Florida, so the offense has been non-existent for weeks.

RB Ray Davis has run for seven yards per carry and was the hero against the Gators. He’ll look to continue that success to help loosen up things for Leary and the passing game.

Barion Brown, Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key and Jordan Dingle are all back after being Kentucky’s top receivers a year ago with a first-round pick throwing them the football, so getting the passing game on track has to be a priority for a Kentucky offense that has regressed.

Offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who served in the same capacity for the NFL’s Rams last season, had an extra week to prepare this group and will need to come out of the lab with some new tricks.

More college football previews: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin 

Tennessee vs. Kentucky prop picks

• Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright anytime TD (-120)
• Kentucky WR Barion Brown OVER 46.5 receivng yards (-114)

Wright is the most talented back on the Vols roster and figures to be the preferred weapon as Tennessee looks to find its footing on the road. After picking up just 22 yards on 11 carries in Tuscaloosa, look for him to find the end zone against the Wildcats.

Kentucky must get the passing game going, so we’ll trust that a talented coordinator like Coen will add a wrinkle or two given extra time to prepare. Brown is the team’s most talented receiver and could surpass his receiving yardage prop with one big play.

Tennessee vs. Kentucky pick ATS

Neither one of these teams anticipated entering November under .500 in SEC play, but that will be the reality for whoever comes up short.

Look for Kentucky to trust its sturdy defense in Lexington, and while Tennessee will continue to employ a fast pace, ensuring Milton doesn’t turn the ball over will be a priority on the road.

The Vols gave up 34 points last week, but the defense didn’t play poorly and has been a strength all season. Offense should be harder to come by than expected, so count on not seeing the total eclipsed.

Pick: Under