Tennessee vs. Alabama odds, props, predictions: Can Milton find groove against dominant Tide defense?

Since losing to Texas in a game where it uncharacteristically looked like the inferior team, mighty Alabama (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) has rolled off five straight victories but no longer dons that cloak of invincibility it has become synonymous with over the last decade. Four of its five wins have been one-score games in the fourth quarter. Only the Crimson Tide’s Sept. 30 win over Mississippi State was dominant and basically over by halftime.

Tennessee vs. Alabama odds, props and predictions hinge on whether you believe the Vols can remain competitive or even steal this one, which would give it consecutive wins in the “Third Saturday in October” rivalry for the first time since 2003-04, following a 15-game losing streak in the series.

Only Ole Miss was ranked higher than No. 17 Tennessee (5-1, 4-2) entering its date with No. 11 Alabama, which trailed that game against the then-No. 15 Rebels entering the second half. ‘Bama has been tied or down coming out of the locker room for the final 30 minutes in three of its last five, but went on to outscore teams 60-28 in those games. Arkansas did get the better of the Tide in the second half a week ago, however, nearly pulling off an upset.

The Vols escaped Texas A&M thanks to a 6-0 fourth quarter in Knoxville last Saturday, winning 20-13 despite scoring only one offensive touchdown, a season-low. QB Joe Milton III has struggled against every SEC defense he’s seen this season, throwing at least one interception in all four games. Both teams badly need to win this 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday kickoff since Tennessee has already lost to Florida and Alabama still harbors hopes of a perfect run through the SEC being enough to land them back in the College Football playoff.

Tennessee vs. Alabama odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Vols vs. Crimson Tide:

Alabama opened as a 9-point favorite. The Tide are available for on the moneyline after opening -355, while the Vols offered at . The total was bet up to 48.5 or 49 in early wagering after opening at 48.

More CFB Week 8 betting previews: Ole Miss vs. Auburn | Duke vs. Florida State

Tennessee betting news: Trusting Milton the key to upset bid

The Vols lit up an Alabama defense loaded with big names currently making huge contributions in the NFL to the tune of 567 yards and 52 points last season, the most ever given up in the Nick Saban era. Hendon Hooker threw for 385 yards and five touchdowns, outdueling Heisman Trophy winner and eventual No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. He helped account for the game’s final 10 points in a 52-49 win.

There’s no way Milton can be that effective, but Tennessee has little hope of beating Alabama if he continues to be mediocre. They can’t win if he’s simply not a liability. Milton has to put together his best game in a Tennessee uniform, similar to what he accomplished in a Jan. 1 Orange Bowl win over Clemson.

Milton threw for 100 yards against A&M last week, slipping to 11th in passer rating among the SEC’s 14 quarterbacks. He won’t have the services of his most talented receiver, injured junior Bru McCoy, but does have explosive threats in Squirrel White, Dont’e Thornton and Ramel Keyton, who combined for just three catches last week. Freshman Chas Nimrod led the Vols with four receptions and 31 yards. That can’t happen again.

Head coach and offensive guru Josh Heupel needs Milton to tax an Alabama defense that has been the strength of this year’s team, and relying solely on a heavy dose of RBs Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small isn’t going to get the job done in Tuscaloosa. Milton has arrived at the game that will define his tenure at Tennessee and still has to face Georgia in a month’s time – if he remains the starter that long.

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Alabama betting news: Homefield edge could help defense dominate

Alabama hasn’t lost multiple games at Bryant-Denny Stadium since going 4-3 in 2007, Saban’s first year on the job. They were in danger of falling against the Razorbacks on Homecoming last week and still must host LSU on Nov. 4 coming off next week’s bye.

The Crimson Tide may get star safety Malachi Moore back from an ankle injury. Freshman Caleb Downs has been tremendous in helping make up for Moore’s absence and CB Kool-Aid McKinstry joined edge rusher Dallas Turner as an AP midseason All-American, so ‘Bama has the goods to make Milton’s life miserable. A vocal fan base aided the cause on Arkansas’ last drive last week, flustering KJ Jefferson, and will be called into duty Saturday.

Offensively, QB Jalen Milroe completed less than half his passes but converted the one that mattered most against the Hogs on a key late third-down conversion. He’s the first true dual threat quarterback the Vols have faced this season, so this is an opportunity for him to shine despite being sacked 11 times over the past two games.

Tennessee vs. Alabama prop picks

• Tennessee RB Jaylen Wright OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
• Alabama QB Jalen Milroe OVER 0.5 rushing TDs (-115)

Wright has emerged as a difference-making back with four 100-yard games to his credit. He’s going to be counted on heavily and should be in for a season-high in carries after going for 136 yards on 19 against A&M last week.

Milroe has three TD runs over his last three days and has a good chance to cash this one at plus money. Incidentally, Milton’s interception number of 0.5 is heavily juiced to the over at -190.

Tennessee vs. Alabama prediction

Although Tennessee prefers to operate at a fast pace, Milton's issues have really slowed production against quality defenses. Having just beaten A&M on the strength of their run game and defense, look for Heupel to employ a similar approach. Milroe isn't the most accurate passer himself, and Alabama is likely to trust its strengths and rely on its second-half dominance to stay perfect in SEC play. Look for a low-scoring contest.

Pick: Under 49