Welcome to the Super Bowl 57 market report! Before the big game kicks off, let's take a moment to see how the betting market has evolved since the game's opening odds were released.
There's been a pretty significant shift in the point spread market from the initial odds for a game of this magnitude, and along with updated betting splits and insights from BetMGM, we've aggregated some of the more notable bets placed on both the Eagles and Chiefs.
Best of luck if you decide to make a bet on the big game!
SUPER BOWL BETTING:
Game preview | MVP | Over/Under | Best bets
Super Bowl 2023 updated odds, line movement, and betting splits:
Per BetMGM, after opening as short 1.5-point underdogs, the Eagles have been bet up to 1.5 point-favorites thanks to 69 percent of spread bets placed on Philadelphia. If Philadelphia closes as the favorite, it will be just the third time this season that Kansas City is an underdog.
The Chiefs went 1-1 in the underdog role this season, defeating the Buccaneers 41-31 as one-point underdogs in Week 4 and later falling to the Bills 24-20 as 2.5-point underdogs in Week 6. Super Bowl 57 also marks the first time Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are underdogs in the big game after closing as 1.5-point favorites in Super Bowl 54 against San Francisco and 3.5-point favorites against Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 55.
According to BetMGM Sports Trader Christian Cipollini, “Currently, the Chiefs winning would be the best outcome for the sportsbook. That could change as a majority of action on the Super Bowl will come in this weekend.”
The total's also seen some movement, ticking up to 50.5 after opening at 49.5. Plenty of offense is expected between the AFC's and NFC's most efficient offenses on an EPA/play basis.
SUPER BOWL PROPS:
Eagles | Chiefs | Mahomes | Hurts | "Novelty" props | Best bets
Super Bowl 2023 odds: Notable Eagles bets
Philadelphia moved from a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite in part by a slew of large bets right after the initial odds were released. Per Max Meyer of Caesars Sports, 21 of 24 early bets placed of at least $10,000 came in on the Eagles, moving them up to as high as -2.
There have been 24 spread or moneyline bets of at least $10,000 placed already at @CaesarsSports for Super Bowl LVII.
— Max Meyer (@TheMaxMeyer) January 30, 2023
Eagles: 21
Chiefs: 3
The spread opened at pick and it's now at Eagles -2.
Since then, some buyback has come in on the Chiefs, as there's a good chance the Eagles don't reach -2 again before kickoff. It's rare to see the Chiefs in the underdog role, especially in a neutral site game, so expect a good deal of Chiefs money to spill into the market.
BetMGM also reported a million-dollar wager coming in on the Eagles' moneyline at -125 to win $800,000. Considering how close to even these two teams are, this bettor seems to be awfully confident in Philadelphia's chances to claim its second Super Bowl in six seasons.
🚨 BIG BET ALERT!!! 🚨
— VSiN (@VSiNLive) February 6, 2023
A BetMGM bettor bet $1M on the #Eagles moneyline -125 🤯
Check out this article by @BFawkes22 for more #SuperBowl odds, biggest wagers, & notable bets...https://t.co/f3yF7wkCdY pic.twitter.com/aK7VFJXUtB
Another bettor is hoping a Chiefs defense that allowed a league-high 33 passing TDs in the regular season gets lit up by Hurts, betting on the Eagles QB1 to throw exactly five TD passes at a 60/1 price tag.
A bettor with the @SuperBookSports placed a $1,000 bet on Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to throw exactly five touchdown passes in the Super Bowl at 60/1 odds.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) February 6, 2023
The betting public is also hoping RB Kenneth Gainwell shows out on the game's biggest stage, as the second-year RB is BetMGM's biggest liability to take home MVP honors.
As @BetMGM's Seamus Magee (@SRM95) said earlier:
— Patrick Everson (@PatrickE_Vegas) February 8, 2023
"Kenneth Gainwell is our biggest liability for Super Bowl MVP." https://t.co/KblULpEJWr
MORE SUPER BOWL PICKS:
DraftKings lineup | FanDuel lineup | Same Game Parlay
Super Bowl 2023 odds: Notable Chiefs bets
Despite moving from a 1.5-point favorite to a 1.5-point underdog, Kansas City has still garnered its fair share of action from the betting public.
According to ESPN's Ben Fawkes, a BetMGM customer wagered $5,000 on the exact outcome of the Super Bowl ending with a 33-30 Chiefs victory at +200000 odds.
One bettor at @BetMGM wagered $5,000 on the #SuperBowl exact score of Chiefs 33, Eagles 30 at 200-1 odds.
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) February 9, 2023
Bet would win $1 million
Another BetMGM customer is confident the Chiefs walk into the locker room with a lead at halftime, wagering $80,000 on the Chiefs' first-half moneyline at +105. The bet would net $84,000.
Back in January, another BetMGM customer laid down $35,000 to win $96,250 on a Chiefs Super Bowl future at +275.
One Caesar's Sportsbook player is hoping Kadarius Toney's ankle heals up in time for the recently-acquired Chief to have an all-time Super Bowl performance, betting on the former first-round pick to take home MVP honors at 150-1.
A bettor from PA put $1,420.69 on Kadarius Toney (150-1) to win Super Bowl MVP 😱
— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) February 7, 2023
Would win: $213,103.50 pic.twitter.com/rQ8Zxx0QYh
Fawkes has also reported that two of the biggest reported legal bets so far have come in on the Chiefs. With more Kansas City support likely to flood the market in the coming days, it could be wise to bet on the Chiefs now before their price seemingly gets worse.
Five biggest reported #SuperBowlLVII bets:
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) February 8, 2023
1. $1,000,000 on Eagles ML -125 at @BetMGM
2. $314,000 on Chiefs +3.5 (-157) alt line at @CaesarsSports in AZ
3. $270,039.85 on OVER 50.5 at Caesars
4. $220,000 on Under 50.5 at Caesars
5. $150,000 on Chiefs ML +105 at Caesars
SUPER BOWL 57 EXOTIC PROP BETS:
National Anthem | Halftime | Broadcast | Coin toss, more
Super Bowl 2023 odds: Most bet props
Per BetMGM, here's a snapshot of their most heavily bet props by ticket count:
- Travis Kelce to score 1st touchdown (+650)
Kelce always garners lots of public action relative to his player props, and bettors would love to cash in on the TE scoring the game's first touchdown at +650.
- Travis Kelce to score anytime touchdown (-125)
Along with betting Kelce to score the game's first touchdown, bettors also hope he reaches paydirt at least once throughout the game.
Kelce's odds to score a TD opened at +100, a price most sharp bettors felt was too short considering he's scored a TD in eight of his past nine playoff games while also garnering 29 red-zone targets during the regular season.
- Result of coin toss: Tails (-105)
Tails never fails...right? Despite both heads and tails priced at -105 (implied probability: 51.22 percent), bettors are lining up to get money on the game's coin toss landing tails. Throughout Super Bowl history, the coin toss has gone about how one would expect it to go, landing heads 27 times (48 percent) and tails 29 times (52 percent). Don't tell them that, though.
- Eagles 37-34 Chiefs correct score (+8000)
Was the script leaked? A satirical social media post circled around the game's potential outcome, showing a Wikipedia screen grab of the Eagles notching a 37-34 win has resulted in bettors trying their hand at cashing in on an 80-1 ticket.
"The correct score of 37-34 Eagles is our worst result, thanks to Twitter memes."
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) February 9, 2023
- Seamus Magee, Sports Trader, @BetMGM
Never change internet. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/42k155bM66
- Miles Sanders over 59.5 rushing yards (-115)
Philadelphia's RB1's rushing prop OVER is another wager bettors are enticed by, as Sanders draws a favorable matchup against a Kansas City defense that's allowed the 11th-highest rush EPA (-0.054).
Sanders averaged 74.6 rushing yards per game in the regular season, and behind an Eagles offensive line that sports PFF's third-highest run-blocking grade (76.1), he's got a shot to have a successful day on the ground.
