The Mavericks went into Phoenix and spoiled Christmas behind Luka Doncic’s 50 points in the first meeting between teams separated by a single game, but this matchup is far more compelling even if it’s not the nightcap on a holiday card. Star guards Kyrie Irving and Bradley Beal didn’t participate in Dallas’ 128-114 win that evening, but should be part of the mix this time.
We say should because guards Doncic (lower back tightness), Irving (thumb sprain), Seth Curry (ankle sprain), and Dante Exum (plantar sprain) are all listed as questionable as of Wednesday morning. Doncic rarely sits out blockbuster games like these, while Irving’s thumb x-ray came back negative and he said he’ll play through the pain. Exum’s status is actually an upgrade since he’s been sidelined all of 2024 after impressing in his return to the NBA.
Since this is basically a pick’em, handicapping Suns vs. Mavs betting odds, props, and predictions hinge on whether you’re more interested in buying in on a superstar tandem playing at home, or a star trio starting to generate momentum after finally getting healthy enough to string a few games playing together.
The Suns had won nine straight games in the series from 2020-22, with Doncic and Devin Booker consistently getting into it. The Mavs then eliminated Phoenix in the 2022 West semifinals 4-3, rallying to win the last two games by scores of 113-86 and 123-90.
Since then, this has been one of the NBA’s spiciest rivalries and takes center stage on ABC at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Suns vs. Mavericks odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest NBA betting odds for Phoenix vs. Dallas:
Suns betting news: Super Team starting to come together
Thanks to Kevin Durant’s brilliance on Monday night, when he closed out a spirited comeback with a near buzzer-beater over the Bulls, the Suns (25-18 SU, 15-27-1 ATS) own the Western Conference’s longest current win streak at six games. They’re even with the 76ers and behind only the Cavaliers’ eight straight victories for the NBA’s best run.
There's currently a big love fest going on in Phoenix, where the team is one win shy of matching its longest win streak of the season. First-year head coach Frank Vogel is finally being able to tap into his depth, so we should see more consistent rotations from him going forward.
We’re also starting to see that Durant, Booker and Beal plan to let whoever’s hottest cook, setting them up or playing decoy if that’s what it takes. Thus far, they’re now 8-4 when together on the floor, and have scored 77 or more points in five of their six wins on this streak, which has seen the team score at least 115 each time out, averaging 121.3.
The Suns have engineered a pair of 20-point comebacks on this run, part of this process of coming together. They’re about to have some more adventures on a season-long seven-game road trip that begins against Dallas.
Bol Bol (foot) is hoping to play soon but is out on Wednesday. Eric Gordon, nursing a wrist injury, is listed as questionable. The Mavs are the only Western Conference foe they’ll visit, as they face Indiana, Orlando, Miami, Brooklyn, Atlanta and Washington between tonight and Feb. 4. The only back-to-back will be played against the Magic and Heat.
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Mavericks betting news: Doncic to have more help going forward
The Mavs (24-19, 23-20) have dropped three of four and are in a difficult part of their schedule, having played the Lakers, Celtics, Pelicans (twice), and Knicks over the past two weeks. They’re 2-3 in those games, but haven’t played a back-to-back since Dec. 27-28 and are now relatively healthy despite those nagging issues they’re likely to play through in a blockbuster matchup like this one.
They even got key forward Maxi Kleber on Jan. 13 after he’d been out two months with a toe injury.
Doncic has sat out nine contests this season, including four in 2024. He last missed a game on Jan. 15 against New Orleans, so his back has clearly been bothering him, but he sadly got four days between games due to the tragic death of Warriors assistant coach Dejan Milojevic with last Friday’s game at Golden State canceled.
Over his last two contests, he’s averaged 33 points, 15.5 rebounds and 11.5 assists in defeats against the Lakers and Celtics. Although he’s turned back up as questionable and probably won’t play both ends of a back-to-back this weekend against the Hawks and Kings, the Mavs are going to have time to galvanize as well.
Their record when Doncic, Irving and rookie rim protector Dereck Lively get on the floor together is 11-5. With Kleber back as another stretch-five option alongside Grant Williams, Exum in the mix as another backcourt option next to Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner Tim Hardaway Jr., and Josh Green having returned last week to team utilize with Derrick Jones, Jr. and Jaden Hardy on the wing, Jason Kidd finally has options to help make life easiest for his superstar tandem.
It remains to be seen if all are in the mix tonight, but that possibility exists, making this a very interesting home date.
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Suns vs. Mavericks Prop Picks
Although Irving will take some of the ball-handling duties off Doncic’s plate, if he’s healthy, he’s likely to play in the manner he’s most comfortable. Since December began, he’s had 10 assists in 13 of 19 games.
Doncic is about to have more options to help the Mavs score more efficiently, and obviously, passes that lead to layups and dunks due to all the attention he receives are better than contested 3-pointers. BetMGM has set his assists number at , and the recommendation is to bet that over.
The other two props we like are related to Devin Booker. Although Durant is on a tear and coming off a season-high 43-point game, Booker has had some rough nights by his standard lately. He followed off a rough 9-for-24 shooting game against the Pacers on Sunday with a quiet 16-point, five-assist game against Chicago. He’s in a 3-for-13 slump from 3-point range, but given the opponent, look for the Suns to look to get him going. Ride the over on his 3-pointers () and assists () figures.
Suns vs. Mavericks ATS pick
Even with Beal and Irving having missed the Christmas contest, these teams still managed to get to 241 points. Given that both teams are now wielding more talent and better chemistry, don’t be surprised to see a nationally-televised track meet break out.
Although the UNDER has cashed in Phoenix’s last four games despite their scoring prowess and is also 2-0 in Dallas’ last two contests, I believe that changes here as both top 120.
Pick: OVER
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