The temptation is to take Southern Methodist for a second consecutive weekend, after the Mustangs delivered dividends in Week 11, especially yielding just single digits to Memphis on Saturday.
SMU giving only six points looked appealing when Circa Sports revealed the lines late Sunday morning. Deeper analyses of SMU vs. Memphis odds, though, showed playing the total OVER to be prudent.
The Memphis defense has been brutal lately, allowing 43.3 points over its past three games, fifth-worst in the country. Plus, at home, its secondary yields 8.8 yards per opponents’ throws, in the bottom 10. And in their past three, the Tigers give up 5.7 yards per run, 11th-worst in D-I.
All of that should excite SMU quarterback Preston Stone and a rushing game that not only is 20th, nationally, but improving by the week. The Ponies attack is devastating, but a review of the series supports another wagering tack.
Within 36 hours, punters boosted SMU to an 8-point favorite. Of the teams’ past 10 meetings, SMU would have covered that spread in none of them. The Total, though, has been shaved a point to 66.5. All but two of those tilts would have either hit that total or finished within single digits.
The AAC has unfolded to form, with No. 17 Tulane (9-1, 6-0), SMU (8-2, 6-0) and UTSA (7-3, 6-0) in lockstep atop the league. Memphis (8-2, 5-1) is knocking on the door, which sets the tone for SMU’s visit, which kicks off at noon ET.
SMU vs. Memphis odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest college football betting odds for the Mustangs vs. Tigers:
SMU betting news: Ponies average 37.3 points, 13th in college football
Stone cleared concussion protocol, from a nasty lick he took in the fourth quarter at Rice the previous week, before last Saturday’s game against North Texas.
SMU, which has won six in a row (including four substantial spread covers), and Stone are in a groove. Over his past five games, he’s averaged 280 passing yards; 12 throws have ended in the end zone and only one was picked off. He’s also run it in twice.
His talented receivers include Jordan Hudson (322 yards, 5 TDs), Jake Bailey (414 yards), Kalvontay Dixon (16.3-yard average, 2) and Roderick Daniels (17 average, 4), and tight end RJ Maryland (355 yards, 6).
Jaylan Knighton, a 5-10, 190-pound senior tailback who spent his first three seasons at Miami, ran for 129 yards and a TD last weekend for the second triple-figure game of his season. He did that twice as a Hurricane, and his teams are 4-0 when Knighton gains at least 100 yards in a game.
“I have to give all the credit to my O-line for the inside zones, and making explosive plays after explosive plays,” Knighton told reporters about a unit anchored by senior tackles Marcus Bryant and Hyrin White. “Credit to them for making the holes open for me. That’s how it happened.”
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Memphis betting news: Tigers always give the Mustangs a battle royale
The Tigers have failed to cover seven of their past eight games, which doesn’t exactly portend excellence. However, four in a row have sailed over their totals, including seven of their past eight. Plus, they average 37.9 points, 11th in D-I
Mix in this squad’s nastiness when it plays SMU, and those Overs point in a certain direction. In fact, the 8-2 Over record in Memphis games ranks among the top five in the country, and its tilts are one of the three that clear the mark by double digits—an average of 10.8 points.
The sieve of a Memphis defense has yielded 0.563 points per play over its past three game, the 13th-worst rate in the land. And it’s worse at home (0.463 to foes) than the road (0.394).
Six-foot-three junior QB Seth Henigan is a three-year starter who will crash the 10,000-yard barrier with 255 yards against SMU. He has guided the Tigers to four consecutive victories, and 44, 59, 45 and 45 points, respectively. A left (non-throwing) arm injury sustained two weeks ago didn’t appear to affect him in last week’s 44-38 overtime victory at Charlotte.
A 45-21 triumph at UAB on Oct. 21, in which Memphis was a 7.5-point favorite, represented the Tigers’ lone cover in their past eight games. Henigan has registered 1,008 aerial yards in his past four games, with nine TD passes, a pick and two scoring runs.
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SMU vs. Memphis prop odds picks
The Mustangs average a national-best 13.1 first-quarter points, while Memphis tallies 7.7 in the first 15 minutes. It’s obscure, but not so uncommon, to find a book offering a first-quarter total. If it can be found, an Over on 15 or 16, nothing higher, might be wise. The Tigers average 12 in the second quarter, so an Over on a first-half total in the low 30s would also be advisable as this has all the earmarks of a 21-20 halftime lead for SMU.
Caesars Sportsbook is offering halftime odds, including a total at 33.5 with -110 juice on either side.
SMU vs. Memphis predictions ATS
A Mustangs defense that had allowed just 290, 247, 131 and 290 total yards in its four previous games gave up 372 to North Texas last weekend, at SMU. Now it goes on the road and that defense will be severely stressed by a talented Memphis offense.
The Tigers have given the Ponies a battle for more than 10 years, and that animus keeps us from messing with the spread. But they figure to duke it out like a heavyweight title bout, so both might lay waste to this total before the fourth-quarter bell dings.
Pick: OVER
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