The Tampa Bay Bucs (8-7) will be looking to secure their third straight NFC South title with a victory in the early afternoon time slot Sunday when they play host to the New Orleans Saints (7-8) in Week 17 NFL play.
The Bucs hold a one-game lead over Atlanta and New Orleans entering the season's penultimate week. Despite their 7-8 records, the Falcons and Saints still have fleeting wild-card hopes, too.
The early Saints vs. Buccaneers odds had TB as a 3-point favorite on Sunday evening. Currently, Tampa Bay is favored by , the total is , and New Orleans can be had for on the moneyline.
Against the spread, the Bucs have a 10-5 mark, tied for best in the NFL. That's a startling turnaround for a team with a league-worst 4-12-1 ATS record last year.
The Saints, meanwhile, have a 4-10-1 ATS mark, which is the worst in the league this year.
With regard to O/U records, both teams have been involved in more matchups that have gone under the total than over. Tampa Bay has a 6-9 O/U mark and the Saints 5-10, which includes last week's "over" in a 30-22 loss in LA to the Rams.
In Week 16, there were 11 OVERS in 16 games league-wide, but during the season, UNDER bettors have cashed in 56.3 percent of the time.
Saints vs. Buccaneers odds: Point spread, moneyline, total for NFL Week 17 matchup
Here are the latest NFL betting odds for Saints vs. Bucs:
When these teams met in the Saints' Superdome in Week 4, the Bucs were 26-9 winners as a 4.5-point underdog. That marked their biggest "upset" victory this season and their most lopsided win until last week. TB bashed Jacksonville 30-12 in Week 16.
The Saints were held to a season-low 197 yards of offense in that meeting and had a 14-yard disadvantage in average starting field position (37-23). It was their most one-sided loss of the season.
Also, New Orleans QB Derek Carr curiously dumped passes off to RB Alvin Kamara 14 times and connected on 13 for only 33 yards.
Saints vs. Buccaneers injury news
Here is the current injury report for the Saints vs. Bucs.
The Saints are hoping starting offensive right tackle Ryan Ramczyk can return from a concussion that caused him to miss the past two games.
For the Bucs, linebacker Shaquil Barrett is likely their biggest concern. He's been slowed by a groin injury.
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Saints betting news
One thing that's in the Saints' favor is their extra rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 16. This season, teams coming off such an extended break and playing a team on normal rest (or less) have gone 20-11-1 ATS.
New Orleans' offense also has benefited from the most short fields this season, starting 22 drives in enemy territory (nine off turnovers) and scoring seven TDs. But the Saints have had only four such possessions in the past five games.
Read: NFL prop bets
Buccaneers betting news
The Bucs, who were picked to finish last in the NFC South (the Saints were the odds-on favorites) after QB Tom Brady's departure, are now listed at to capture the division behind Baker Mayfield. But entering Week 10, when Tampa Bay was 3-5 and on a four-game losing streak, they had odds of +750 and were the division's third choice.
These days, even though Tampa Bay is on a four-game winning streak and on the verge of winning the South and locking up the NFC's fourth seed in the postseason, they are choices to win the Super Bowl.
Defensively, the Bucs don't seem to be Super Bowl caliber. Especially against the passing game.
Six weeks ago, they were the victims of a perfect game by San Francisco's Brock Purdy in a 27-14 defeat, and two weeks earlier, they were 39-37 losers at Houston when rookie QB CJ Stroud threw for five touchdowns without an interception.
Only Detroit's Jared Goff has managed to match that.
More: 2023-24 NFL win totals
Saints vs. Bucs props
Let's look at some prop bets for the Saints vs. Bucs at top-rated sportsbook apps nationwide.
First Scoring Play (FanDuel)
- Saints TD: +250
- Bucs TD: +190
- Saints FG: +320
- Bucs FG: +310
- Saints safety: +8500
- Bucs safety: +10000
Alternate Spreads (DraftKings)
- Saints -10: +411
- Bucs +10: -660
- Saints -5: +213
- Bucs +5: -291
- Saints -2: +137
- Bucs +2: -179
- Saints +5: -158
- Bucs -5: +121
- Saints +10: -331
- Bucs -10: +238
- Saints +15: -593
- Bucs -15: +380
Saints vs. Buccaneers Predictions
Although the Saints are still in the playoff running (they have a 9% chance to qualify, according to PlayoffStatus.com), it's largely because of their weak schedule, with five of their victories coming against teams with double-digit losses. A sixth came against the nine-loss Bears playing with a backup QB.
As for the Bucs, Mayfield (26 TDs, 8 INTs) has come on strong during the team's current win streak, which included his "perfect game" in a victory over Green Bay at Lambeau Field and the team's thrashing of Jacksonville last week.
Tampa Bay does have a weak rushing offense, with a league-low norm of 3.4, but the Saints aren't exactly high-powered. They're next lowest at 3.6.
So, it's likely going to come down to the passing games. The edge goes to Mayfield and the Bucs.
Prediction: Bucs and UNDER
How to Watch Saints vs. Bucs
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 31
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium -- Tampa, FL
- Where to Watch: Fox
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