Following a five-week West Coast swing (Yes, we’re counting the WM Phoenix Open in that run), the PGA Tour makes a quick stop south of the border in Mexico before setting off for a month-long stretch in Florida.
This week’s tournament, the Mexico Open at Vidanta, is in its third year.
It’s one of those tournaments that opens the door for a lot of young pros looking to make their first impact on the Tour, or those in their senior years trying to hang on.
In 2024, only four of the top 50 players in the world rankings will be in the 132-player field that will be battling for the winner’s share of the $8.1 million purse and the 500 FedEx Cup points.
This year’s event will see defending champion Tony Finau return to try to make it back-to-back titles.
The ranked players in the field will be gearing up for a Florida streak that promises to feature more than its share of shootouts.
But it’s those players who are not highly ranked that will be taking aim to at least finish in the top 10 this week and earn a spot in next week’s first Florida stop, the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.
While there will be plenty of jockeying in the field to be in contention come Sunday’s final round, most eyes (and bets) will be on Finau.
The six-time PGA Tour winner put on a clinic in 2023 where he put up scores of 65, 64, 65 and 66 to beat Jon Rahm by three strokes.
Oh, and to add to Finau’s prowess on this course, he was runner-up here in 2022 finishing second to Rahm.
Want to win on this par-71 course? Better be ready to go low. And not just once or twice. It’s got to be all four rounds.
Of the top seven finishers last year, there was only one score of 70 or higher in the 28 rounds, and that was a one-under-par 70.
With that in mind, let’s see which players’ games are on the right track to pick up a victory en route to Florida.
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Mexico Open odds: Tony Finau favored and worth action
If you’ve followed us at all, you know we check out the defending champion first, and we do that every time.
This week’s no different and that’s why we’re going to jump into the captain’s chair and steer the Tony Finau bandwagon this week.
Granted, Finau, the favorite at , hasn’t had the start he would have liked this year.
The good news is he’s five-for-five in cuts made. The bad news is his best finish is a T-6 at last month’s Farmers Insurance Open.
Otherwise, he’s had middle of the pack finishes.
But after a week off before a T-19 finish last week at Tiger Woods’ event at Riviera, we’re thinking this tournament may be the one that kicks his season into high gear.
His four rounds here last year were nothing short of spectacular and because he’s been first or second the last two years, his confidence should be sky-high from the time he hits the resort.
PGA Tour odds: Mexico Open longshot bet to consider
Here’s one player we haven’t had the chance to back in our PGA Tour picks but we’re happy to welcome him into the fold -- Erik van Rooyen at .
The reason we haven’t backed him in the past is simple: His current play coming into an event and the course he’s taking on haven’t matched up well enough for us on any given week.
That changes this week.
Van Rooyen may be coming off a missed cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open (by one shot) but that tournament withstanding, he’s made the cut in his other four starts in 2024 with three finishes in the top 20s.
And those events were high-profile starts with big names.
This week, not so much, as most of the top-50 players are taking the week off.
Last year’s tournament in Mexico saw him finish T-33 but that’s not the part of the story we want to focus on.
He opened with rounds of 64 and 66 and was firmly on the first-page of the leaderboard before fading on the weekend.
Solid weekend play in 2024 just might see him put PGA Tour win No. 3 on his resume.
2024 Mexico Open prop picks
We’re trying to figure out why these odds are so high but make sure to check out Brandon Wu getting a top-five finish at .
With a solo third here last year and a T-2 here in 2022, he’s certainly got the game and confidence when it comes to this course.
He’s had a roller-coaster start to the 2024 season with a made cut, missed cut, made cut, missed cut run over his four events.
That stretch means he’s due for a made cut and we’re thinking his success here in the past will jump-start his season.
We’re going to check out a bet we haven’t put money down on in the past: That there will be a wire-to-wire winner at +900.
We’re thinking Finau may jump out to a lead and never look back.
With limited star-power in the field, if Finau gets off to a hot start, watch out.
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