Penn State vs. Iowa odds, props & ATS pick: Defense expected to rule in Big Ten battle

Outside of an Oct. 14 visit to Wisconsin, Iowa is likely to be the betting favorite in every other game it plays this regular season, so it can start to dream big if it can pull off the upset at home against Penn State on Saturday. 

The Nittany Lions still have to visit Ohio State and host Michigan, so they have a much tougher slate to navigate. Surviving this one to keep their national title hopes alive until next month's showdown with the Buckeyes in Columbus is the goal.

Odds for Penn State vs. Iowa: Point spread, moneyline, total

Penn State was bet up to 14.5- to 15-point favorites in early wagering after opening as 14-point chalk. The best current number for Nittany Lions bettors is . The total of is one of the lowest numbers in play on Saturday. 

Here are current point spreads, moneylines and totals on odds boards around the betting market.

Penn State unbeaten ATS 

Penn State and Iowa have both started the season 3-0, but James Franklin's team, ranked No. 7 in the AP and Coaches Polls, has been more impressive. The Nittany Lions have already earned their first Big Ten win, rolling 30-13 at Illinois last weekend. They handled West Virginia 38-15 in their opener and hung a 63-7 rout on Delaware, which is ranked top-20 in the FCS. 

PSU backers have cashed in its first three games for the third consecutive season, but Franklin's team has failed to cover in their fourth contest in three straight years.

Iowa covered its first spread of the season last Saturday thanks to a touchdown run with 30 seconds left against Western Michigan. The Hawkeyes struggled with Utah State and Iowa State in their first two games and trailed 10-7 against the MAC's Broncos deep into the second quarter before scoring the final 34 points. That late score allowed Iowa to crack the 40-point mark for the first time since Oct. 1, 2021, snapping a streak of 24 games without doing so.

Kirk Ferentz's squad is just 7-7-1 ATS over its last 15 games. Iowa enters this one ranked 24th by the AP and 22nd by the coaches.

Iowa odds and betting breakdown

The Hawkeyes are underdogs for the first time in 2023 and are a double-digit dog for just the fourth time in five-plus seasons. Iowa was an 11-point underdog in the 2021 Big Ten Championship and lost 42-3. It failed to cover against the Wolverines and Buckeyes last season as heavy underdogs and were outscored 81-24 in those losses. 

The Hawkeyes didn't play Penn State in '22 but own a two-game win streak in the series after dropping six straight meetings between 2011-19. Iowa beat the Nittany Lions 23-20 in 2021, rallying from a 17-3 deficit in a game both entered undefeated. The Hawkeyes ascended to No. 2 following the win but were upset the next week by Purdue and haven't been ranked that highly since.

Although they lost standouts Jack Campbell, Riley Moss, and Kaevon Merriweather to the NFL, Iowa's defense remains formidable, allowing just 12.3 points. The Hawkeyes offense looks improved with Michigan transfer Cade McNamara replacing ineffective veteran Spencer Petras, but he hasn't lit it up by any means. This will be McNamara's first major test, and he's not 100 percent due to a leg issue.

Running backs Leshon Williams, Kaleb Johnson, and Jaziun Patterson have taken turns leading Iowa in rushing this season, but Patterson and Johnson won't play in Happy Valley due to ankle injuries.

Penn State odds and betting breakdown

The Nittany Lions finished 11-2 for the second time in four seasons last year, picking up an impressive Rose Bowl win over Utah to close the Sean Clifford era. Sophomore Drew Allar, a much more heralded prospect than the current rookie backup QB of the Green Bay Packers, may wind up in the mix to be a No. 1 overall pick in the NFL down the road and has thrown eight TD passes and no interceptions over his 12-game college career.

Penn State has a true No. 1 receiver in junior KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and a pair of elite backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who operate behind four returning starters along the offensive line. Olu Fashanu, the top tackle prospect in the country, surprisingly returned to school to anchor the unit and has lived up to billing, dominating while staying healthy.

PSU's defense, run by veteran coordinator and former Miami head coach Manny Diaz, hasn't racked up a high volume of sacks but has controlled the line of scrimmage. Top DT "Chop" Robinson, linebackers Abdul Carter and Curtis Jacobs, and corner Kalen King are among the Big Ten's best.

This will be played under the lights at Beaver Stadium, where the Nittany Lions have won their last four primetime contests. It's the "White Out" game for Penn State, which has won five of the last six of these under Franklin. They're 5-0-1 ATS over their last six "White Out" games, but just 10-8 overall since the tradition began in 2004.

Penn State vs. Iowa props picks

Here’s a trio of props picks for bettors’ consideration:

• Penn State WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith OVER 46.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Iowa RB Leshon Williams OVER 0.5 touchdowns (+175)
• Largest lead OVER 17.5 points (-135)

Lambert-Smith is Allar's favorite receiver and faces a secondary that's nowhere near as good as it was last season. The junior receiver should clear his number. 

Although Iowa is going to struggle to score often, the fact Williams is the only healthy back among key regulars means he should get plenty of chances around the goal line when Iowa threatens to reach the end zone. 

We're of the belief the Nittany Lions cover the number, so taking a shot that they'll lead by 18-plus at some point in the contest is a solid play.

Penn State vs. Iowa pick ATS

Iowa has scuffled with Utah State, who just got boat raced at Air Force, rival Iowa State, whose season has been marred by suspensions, and Western Michigan, who fell 48-7 at Syracuse in its opener. The combined record of those teams against FBS opponents is 0-6. 

The Hawkeyes are leaving the state for the first time, McNamara is a bit hobbled, top tight end Luke Lachey is out for the season (leg), and Johnson and Patterson are sidelined. 

Don't expect to see Franklin take his foot off the gas in a "White Out" game, especially since style points will serve his team well. Expect a blowout and ride Penn State.

Pick: Penn State