Golden State would ordinarily be a heavy home favorite against New Orleans given what we’ve come to expect from these teams over the past decade-plus. The Warriors are 32-8 against the Pelicans since the beginning of the 2012-13 season, winning or splitting the season series 11 consecutive years.
Only two of those eight losses have come in the Bay Area.
Unfortunately for the Warriors (17-19 SU, 16-19-1 ATS), the past doesn’t come into play when these teams square off on Wednesday night, and it’s obvious which one is in better form. The Pelicans (22-15, 21-16) are looking for their sixth victory in seven outings after crushing Sacramento 133-100 on Sunday. Golden State is 2-5 since its Christmas loss to Denver, a few games back of the play-in cut-off as the regular season’s halfway point approaches.
That’s why oddsmakers have installed New Orleans as a short road favorite in this ABC-televised Western Conference showdown.
Draymond Green has begun practicing with Golden State as he ramps up his conditioning in order to return to action, but he was listed as out for this game on the overnight and early NBA injury reports. That could change at some point on Wednesday, especially since his pledge that he’s already hurt his team enough sounds like a good sign he’ll return as soon as he feels he’ll be able to contribute.
Handicapping Pelicans vs. Warriors betting odds, props, and predictions comes down to determining whether Golden State can rally in its shorthanded state, especially if New Orleans gets Zion Williamson back in the fold.
The Dubs look to continue their aforementioned dominance of the Pels and can clinch at least a split of another season series, having already won the first meeting 130-102 back on Oct. 30. Stephen Curry scored 42 points in the win, achieved without Klay Thompson and Jonathan Kuminga. Brandon Ingram was absent for the Pelicans. All three of those players will be in the mix on Wednesday, with Ingram currently flourishing.
Pelicans vs. Warriors odds: Point spread, moneyline, total
Here are the latest NBA betting odds for New Orleans vs. Golden State:
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Pelicans betting news: Zion questionable, but team depth shining through during current surge
Despite Williamson missing Sunday’s game due to a quad contusion, New Orleans crushed the Kings and put together its second best offensive rating since the franchise moved to the Crescent City from Charlotte in the 2000s.
The Pelicans are 18-9 since Nov. 14, which includes four victories over Sacramento. They’ve also taken down teams like the Nuggets, Clippers, 76ers, Timberwolves, Mavericks and Lakers, bouncing back from an ugly 4-6 start.
Most of their top offensive performances, from both an efficiency and raw scoring output, have come over the past six weeks. Since Nov. 29, the Pelicans have scored 117 or more points in 11 of 19 games.
Williamson and spark plug Jose Alvarado are both listed as questionable against the Warriors, but New Orleans has proven to be exceptionally deep.
CJ McCollum, Williamson, and key reserves Alvarado, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance and Naji Marshall have all missed time. Head coach Willie Green has held things together, and word is that Williamson and Alvarado are close enough that this team will soon be at full strength.
Ingram, center Jonas Valanciunas and top defender Herb Jones have set the foundation, and McCollum is averaging 21 points and over five assists since Dec. 28, finding his rhythm after missing time with a collapsed lung.
Warriors betting news: Curry keeping Warriors afloat ... barely
Curry has been the main constant for the Warriors and the reason they’ve been able to stay afloat, albeit as basically a .500 team, since Green was suspended for what turned out to be 12 games for his latest rage-related on-court incident.
But even Curry let go of the rope in a 133-118 loss to the Raptors that was over by halftime with the hosts trailing 76-49. Curry scored just nine points on 2-for-14 shooting and missed all nine of his 3-point attempts, the second time during Green‘s absence that he’d come up empty from beyond the arc in a full game, something that hadn’t happened in years.
Green’s return is imminent, Kuminga is likely to return to a reserve role and Klay Thompson has at least rediscovered his stroke, so by no means is Golden State out of the equation in the West.
However, Chris Paul broke his hand last Friday night and will miss extended time, while standout defender Gary Payton II remains out with a hamstring strain. That leaves veteran Cory Joseph, rookie Brandin Podziemski and young Marcus Moody as the teams top reserve guards behind the splash brothers.
Golden State needs Green back to provide a lift, both physically and emotionally, and have lost four of six on a season-long seven-game homestand that ends with this game. They’ve only covered in two of the contests and have essentially blown an opportunity to capitalize on home cooking, which would obviously be compounded by another loss.
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Pelicans vs. Warriors player prop picks
- Steph Curry OVER 28.5 points (-113) and OVER 4.5 made 3-pointers (-138)
- Brandon Ingram OVER 6.5 assists (+122)
After his 0-for-8 performance from beyond the arc in a Dec. 17 win in Portland, Curry rebounded by shooting 6-for-11 from beyond the arc in an OT upset of Boston that represents the Warriors’ landmark win minus Green. He’s made a bunch of clutch shots over the last month and should bounce back here. Averaging just over 27 points per game, expect Curry to bounce back from his latest rough showing by returning to form, which is why we like the over on 28.5 points and 4.5 made 3-pointers.
The Pelicans’ side is murkier due to Williamson’s potential inclusion, but Ingram is still an ideal player for them to play through, and he’s produced at least seven assists in three of the last five games. His figure here is set at 6.5 at plus money, and even though his scoring has been down, he’s proven adept at getting good shots for teammates. Ride the over on his helpers.
Pelicans vs. Warriors ATS pick
Golden State is 1-3 straight up as a home underdog this season, though it has covered twice. The Warriors did finally get on the winning side of things when expected to lose at the Chase Center in that dramatic win over Boston a few weeks ago, and they were also in the Jan. 4 loss to Denver that Nikola Jokic dramatically won on a near-halfcourt heave to prevent overtime, so this is a role they have some momentum in.
Given the sense of urgency, Curry’s likely bounceback, Thompson’s return to form and the fact New Orleans may be shorthanded, we’ll recommend taking the points.
Pick: Warriors
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