Notre Dame vs. Duke betting odds, props, prediction: Can the Irish bounce back against unbeaten Blue Devils?

Duke is unbeaten through four games for the fourth time in the last decade but hasn’t gotten off to a 5-0 start since 1994. Steve Spurrier got off to a 5-0 start back in ’88, and before that, you have to go back to the early 1960’s to find a Blue Devils team with the potential to be as successful as this one can be if it can upset Notre Dame and head into October undefeated.

Its two biggest remaining ACC games, against Florida State and rival North Carolina, will both come on the road, but this Duke team can dream of being a factor in the national title race since the league has performed surprisingly well thus far and the roster head coach Mike Elko has built in a season-plus is legitimately loaded. 

It would’ve been better for the Blue Devils if this were a battle of unbeatens, but that ship sailed when Notre Dame fielded only 10 defenders for two late stands attempting to keep Ohio State out of the end zone last Saturday in an eventual 17-14 loss suffered with one second remaining. Despite the Irish losing, ESPN’s College GameDay is hosting its flagship football show out of Durham, turning Saturday into a party a few months earlier than usual at what is historically a basketball school.  

Notre Dame (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) can still compete for a national title, but running the table against a schedule that includes games against USC and Clemson is now a necessity following the loss to the Buckeyes. The Irish suffered four losses in the first full season of Marcus Freeman's tenure, but this year’s group looks much improved.

Notre Dame vs. Duke odds: Point spread, moneyline, total

Notre Dame is favored by 5.5 points after opening up laying 4.5 on the road. Most books list the Irish as a -210 to -220 moneyline favorite after opening -200. Duke is +175 to +180 to pull the upset. The total has been set at 52.  

Notre Dame odds and betting breakdown 

This will be ND’s second true road game, and the team is 19-5 over its last 24 games outside South Bend, which includes a rout of Navy in Ireland on Aug. 26. They’re 7-3 under Freeman away from home, covering the spread in six of those contests. A four-loss season in 2022 represented the worst mark since the team went 4-8 under Brian Kelly in 2016, but some of those issues were tied to a lack of production at quarterback.   

Drew Pyne (Arizona State) and Taylor Buchner (Alabama) both transferred out, but Wake Forest import Sam Hartman has provided a significant upgrade, throwing 14 touchdowns through five games without being intercepted. He went 2-1 vs. Duke as a starter at Wake, losing 34-31 in the 2022 regular-season finale despite throwing for 347 yards and three scores. Hartman has spread the ball out to a number of options and has the luxury of an elite back behind him with junior RB Audric Estime. Following a 12-touchdown season a year ago, Estime has found the end zone five times already this year.  

After surrendering 20 or more points in nine of 13 games in ‘22, this season’s group has also made strides and is allowing 15.8 points per game. Ohio State’s 17 points last weekend were the fewest it has scored since Sept. 2017, a span of 77 contests.   

Duke odds and betting breakdown

Although the teams they've defeated after a commanding 28-7 season-opening rout of Clemson were all double-digit underdogs, the Blue Devils aren’t succeeding through smoke and mirrors. QB Riley Leonard is a likely NFL second-round pick, the offensive line is anchored by a potential first-rounder in tackle Graham Barton, and the defense is allowing an average of 9.3 points per game, tied for fourth in the nation with Penn State. Only Michigan, Oklahoma and Ohio State are surrendering fewer.  

Leonard is 6-foot-4, strong, accurate and mobile. He’s 13-5 as a starter, scoring 19 rushing touchdowns while throwing 20 more against seven interceptions. His receiving corps is experienced, as are backs Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore.  

Estime was held to 70 yards by Ohio State last week but still averaged five yards per carry. He’d run for at least 95 yards in the previous five games prior to that and figures to be a bell cow given Notre Dame’s injury concerns at receiver and the success Clemson had moving the ball on the ground in the opener.

The Irish weren’t thrilled with their lack of pressure on Buckeyes QB Kyle McCord, so getting to Leonard will be a priority. However, Duke’s line is stout, he’s capable of escaping the pocket and ran for nearly 100 yards in wins over Clemson and Northwestern. Averaging 8.2 ypc this season, Leonard has surpassed this number in 13 of his last 17 starts. 

Notre Dame vs. Duke pick ATS

The Irish, coming off a physical battle with Ohio State, will have to contend with a true road atmosphere for the first time in a night game and are laying points. Leonard will have to continue avoiding turnovers and extending drives with his legs, but he’s done that his entire career to date. This looks like a game in which the team that has the ball last ultimately wins.

Pick: Duke +5.5

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