LAS VEGAS — Having won only one of his first six games, New England coach Bill Belichick might have been seen as slipping away, a third losing season in four years inevitable.
Last Sunday’s line had bloated to Buffalo -9. Yet, the Patriots pulled out a 29-25 home victory, with quarterback Mac Jones outplaying Josh Allen.
“You kidding me?” Golden Nugget sportsbook director Tony Miller said of anyone discounting Belichick. “All that stuff of him retiring, that he needs to go? Ridiculous. Silly.”
It trickled out after the triumph that Belichick, 71, had agreed to some sort of “lucrative contract extension” before the campaign had started.
“I’m a big Cowboys fan, and when they played in Dallas I was worried, just because of Belichick,” Miller says. “That’s the whole reason.”
The Cowboys beat the Pats, 38-3.
“I just don’t put anything past Belichick. Never will, when he’s coaching, no matter where he’s at. Just a brilliant mind in football, a whole other factor you have to deal with. No, I don’t ever say that his team’s going to lose for sure.”
Los Angeles Rams (3-4, 4-2-1 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2, 4-2 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Miller called this 6.5 “solid.”
Dallas had a bye last week, while the Rams lost at home to the Steelers, 24-17, their third defeat in four games inside SoFi Stadium. This starts four of six road tilts for the Rams.
“Kind of stumbling lately,” Miller says of the Rams. “I expect that number might go up, especially here at the Nugget; we’re such a Texas house. I expect to see Cowboys money come in during the week, so maybe that climbs to 7.
“I also expect that that total of 45.5 might go way over, too.”
Atlanta Falcons (4-3, 2-5 ATS) vs Tennessee Titans (2-4, 3-3 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Second-year QB Desmond Ridder, rookie tailback Bijan Robinson and third-year tight end Kyle Pitts all feature for the Falcons.
Ridder owns a league-best four game-winning drives, and nobody else has three.
At one shop, Pitts has a projected receiving-yards total at 33.5. One of our savvier pro bettors says the Over, at -110, is the play since he pegs Pitts with 42 aerial yards.
“It would be hard for me to put hard-earned money behind Ridder right now,” Miller says. “But you’re only a 2.5-point favorite on the road, in Tennessee, to a Titans team not playing that well.”
This opened Tennessee -1 but quickly flipped, perhaps on the news that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) looks doubtful. In fact, rookie Will Levis, who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass, is expected to start.
Miller gave a nod to Falcons coach Arthur Smith for getting his team “going a little bit, but Atlanta is one team I don’t want to see reach the Super Bowl. Everybody bet them before the season started. One of the big ones.”
New England Patriots (2-5, 2-5 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (5-2, 5-2 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
This opened 12 and nearly lost three full points by Tuesday morning in the wake of much sharp action.
“For sure,” Miller says. “Obviously, with a double-digit number in the NFL, the sharps look at them pretty closely and, normally, take the dog. But I wouldn’t be surprised if this line keeps dropping.”
The Pats have won only two of their past 10 visits to South Beach, which is expected to have a 60 percent chance of rain throughout the day and 15 mph winds.
Fins receiver Tyreek Hill (hip) and tailback Raheem Mostert (ankle), who leads the league with nine rushing TDs, returned to practice Thursday.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2, 5-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2, 4-2 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
The Jags are 5-1 in their past six trips to Pittsburgh, in regular-season and playoff games. With a 1.5-game lead atop the AFC South, maybe QB Trevor Lawrence is poised for the success that many have pegged for him.
“Another team that’s been in the futures action quite a bit,” Miller says of Jacksonville. “But both of these teams are Jekyll and Hyde; good one week, bad the next.”
One forecast calls for a nearly 50 percent chance of rain throughout the game.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-1, 4-2-1 ATS) at Washington Commanders (3-4, 3-4 ATS)
- Sunday, 1:10 p.m. ET
- FedExField, Landover, MD
A rough week for Philly fans might be salvaged by the Eagles, who embark on a rough part of their schedule. This one might not seem like a task, but we’ve seen enough examples why no NFL foe should be taken lightly.
Commanders QB Sam Howell has been sacked an NFL-high 40 times, and he owns a brutal QB Rating of 41.4, 25th in the league.
For the Eagles, QB Jalen Hurts (61.9) has the eighth-rated QBR, but he’s also tossed eight interceptions, tied with Vegas’s Jimmy Garoppolo atop that chart.
Philly is 5-4 in its past nine games in Landover.
Cleveland Browns (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Miller nearly visibly shrugs when he hears “Seattle.”
“Another team I don’t want to see in the futures, winning the Super Bowl,” he says. “They’re a quiet team. You don’t hear a lot about them, but Geno Smith, man … they’re just good, and they’re at home.”
Seattle is sixth in the league in points-per-play margin, at 0.107. Oddly, it fares better away from home (0.127) than it does inside Lumen (0.090).
Watch Seahawks speedster DeeJay Dallas, who leads the NFL with a 25.7-yard kickoff return average.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-3, 2-3-1 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
The mid-week news of Niners QB Brock Purdy being in concussion protocol sliced this spread, which opened 6, and the total was chopped from 46.
Sam Darnold, 21-34 as an NFL starter, will get the nod. He has thrown one pass, for 1 yard, this season. In his previous three seasons, he’s thrown 25 TD passes and had 27 picked off.
Miller says, “It will be tough this weekend for Frisco, coming off a loss.”
Cincy QB Joe Burrow is averaging 5.3 yards per throw, tied for 32nd.
“That just sounds so wrong,” Miller laughs. “You wait every week for this team to wake up and put a hurt on somebody. If Burrow ever gets healthy, this team could create some noise.”
Chicago Bears (2-5, 2-4-1 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-4, 1-4-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- So-Fi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Division II superstar QB Tyson Bagent forced the Bears to get rid of Nathan Peterman, and he made the team look smart last week by winning his first career NFL start, at home against the Raiders, 30-12.
He went 21-for-29, for 162 yards and a short TD pass to D’Onta Foreman, who also ran in two shorties and paced a ground attack with 89 yards.
Can the Bears pull it off again? This opened 9.5, and Bears money had whittled a point off the spread by Wednesday.
“Maybe the Bears found something?” Miller laughs. “We’ll find out for sure Sunday night. Hey, Bears fans come out in droves to support whoever will win for them.”
The Chargers, meanwhile, continue to spin wheels.
“Every year, their fans complain, they bitch, they sit in my sportsbook and throw things. We got a lot of Chargers fan who are not happy right now. If they lose this one at home on Sunday night, you’re going to hear some bitching and maybe see a change in their head coach.”
Las Vegas Raiders (3-4, 3-3-1 ATS) at Detroit Lions (5-2, 5-2 ATS)
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Ford Field, Detroit, MI
All forms of teasers and parlays will all come down to Monday night, as they usually do at the Nugget and every Vegas shop. Miller hopes his hometown Raiders come through for him.
If Jimmy Garoppolo (back) can’t go for the Raiders, Purdue product Aidan O’Connell is expected to start. However, Vegas coach Josh McDaniels said Thursday afternoon he is “hopeful” that Jimmy G will start.
“They have issues at quarterback, and elsewhere,” Miller says. “But we’ll definitely need the Raiders. People will bet the Lions and the Over, and they’ll tease it down to 2.5 or 1.5. We’re going to be big Raiders fans, for sure.”
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