For the first quarter of the 2024 NFL season, heavy favorites and underdogs rocked the world of bettors and survivor-pool entrants alike. Underdogs of +5.5 or greater started 17-4-1 against the spread, and the biggest favorites lost outright in Weeks 1, 2, and 3. However, things have started to regress to the mean a bit.
The Eagles, Ravens and Texans were the only teams favored by a touchdown or more last week, and all three teams won outright. It's an early Halloween miracle!
That's not to say that chalk bettors should return to business as usual. Survivor picks still require research and careful attention to detail, especially if you're one of the last remaining entrants in your contest or you're on the last strike of your tournament.
MORE NFL BETTING: Week 7 odds, lines, totals
This column steered readers away from the Bengals in Week 1 and 3 (vs. Pats, vs. Commanders...both Cincy Ls). It also guided you away from the Ravens vs. the Raiders in Week 2, and highlighted the 49ers vs. the Patriots and the Eagles vs. Browns as the priority picks for Week 4 and 5. So, there's that.
Our strategies have been a mixture of early-week gut calls and data analysis we get from our friends at PoolGenius, the No. 1 resource for NFL survivor pool strategies and NFL survivor pool tips.
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Let's take a closer look at Week 7's top teams, breaking down which options might be better choices for this coming weekend and which ones might be best served for later on down the line.
The Sporting News has teamed up with PoolGenius this season to give you the best weekly advice on survivor pools. PoolGenius subscribers have reported over $6 million in NFL survivor pool winnings.
NFL most popular Week 7 survivor picks
It's pretty easy to tell which picks will be the most popular ahead of a new NFL week. Lopsided moneylines and spreads often dictate survivor-pool action — attacking the opponent perceived as the weakest is a tale as old as time.
Here are the most heavily favored teams for Week 7, along with their PoolGenius win probability odds:
| Team | Opponent | Spread | Line | PG odds |
| Bills | vs. Titans | -9.0 | -450 | 74% |
| Commanders | vs. Panthers | -8.5 | -400 | 73% |
| Jaguars | vs. Patriots (N) | -5.5 | -210 | 69% |
| Bengals | at Browns | -4.5 | -225 | 65% |
| Ravens | at Buccaneers | -4.0 | -210 | 68% |
| Eagles | at Giants | -4.0 | -210 | 67% |
| Colts | vs. Dolphins | -3.5 | -200 | 62% |
After only three teams were favored by -6 or more last week, only two are touchdown favorites in Week 7. The Bills (vs. Titans) and Commanders (vs. Panthers) — featuring MVP candidates Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels vs. Will Levis and Andy Dalton — have very favorable home matchups.
The Jaguars have -5.5 odds in their UK game with the Patriots, but remember that the Jags have been quite volatile this season and just got smacked down by the Bears 35-16 in London. Meanwhile, New England just put up its first three-touchdown game of the season in rookie Drake Maye's first career start.
Week 7 survivor pools: Commanders highlight the optimal picks
The Bills are a fine pick against the Titans — but if you don't have them available still or don't want to take the chalkiest team, it might be a good time to go with the Commanders. Jayden Daniels nearly led Washington past the high-flying Ravens last weekend, so he should be able to really thrive in a bounce-back game at home against Andy Dalton and the Panthers.
This also feels like a good time to consider picking the Bengals (vs. Browns). Deshaun Watson and the Browns offense has been utterly abysmal all season, failing to exceed 18 points in any game and failing to reach 17 in each of the past four weeks. Joe Burrow and the Bengals should make mincemeat of their Ohioan foes.
The Jaguars (vs. Patriots) at Wembley feels like a trap game, because it's impossible to trust Jacksonville's play-calling and Drake Maye might actually be good. The Ravens (at Bucs) and Eagles (at Giants) also feel like higher-volatility picks, considering Baker Mayfield has played like an MVP candidate and New York has mounted two big upsets this season.
The sneaky sleeper of the week: the Colts vs. Dolphins. As long as Tua Tagovailoa is on the IR and Joe Flacco is filling in for Anthony Richardson, Indy has a chance to win this matchup at home. Miami's offense looks like a shell of its once-dominant self, and with Tua and De'Von Achane both banged up, any halfway-decent team with a halfway-decent scheme can beat the 'fins.
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