LAS VEGAS — It’s enlightening to glean how polished and seasoned bettors — maybe the sharpest, behind the counters — navigate their sports-betting business.
Last weekend, Buffalo played host to Miami. Duane Colucci viewed it as a must-win situation for the Bills, not only a divisional game but a springboard to their venture across the pond to England on Sunday.
“You lose at home to Miami and the Dolphins have two games on you, so Miami is important. Then the Bills travel to Europe. Had they lost last week, the Bills would have been up against it.”
Giving between 3 to 5 points, Buffalo hammered Miami, 48-20. Colucci — the Race and Sports Manager at the Rampart Casino, the Summerlin sister sportsbook property to the South Point — didn’t drop one bead of sweat.
“That was one of my bigger bets I’ve made, a game I felt very strongly about because Buffalo had to win to keep pace in the AFC.”
I know several professional bettors who have liked Jacksonville this weekend, playing its second consecutive game in England, since mid-summer.
The Jaguars figure to have minimal time-zone issues.
“I do like to take the points here, especially in the 6 range,” Colucci said. “But it isn’t a massive bet that I made.”
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2, 2-2 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-1, 3-1 ATS)
- 9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 8
- Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
- Bills -5.5, Total 48.5
As we talked about this spread hitting 6, Colucci knew what that would trigger.
“Yeah, we’ll get the buy-back then. If it does get to 6, we’ll see some nice five-figure bets at the South Point and Rampart, where we love taking those big bets.”
Those will be sharp wagers, Colucci confirmed, although he expects this to attract wide attention.
“I understand the public steaming Buffalo, because the Bills looked so impressive against Miami. They get enamored with flashy offenses, so the public will back them with parlays and teasers, too.
“[But] I love the points here. Just my opinion. There will be some public action on Jacksonville, as well, because [the public is] as smart as we are. They know the Jags are still in Europe and Buffalo has to travel across the Atlantic Ocean.”
For what it’s worth, Buffalo owns the No. 2 points-per-play margin, at 0.255, in the league, a metric we prize. Jacksonville, at -0.033, is 21st.
“The Jags have to play a little better. They fell asleep against Atlanta … That offense is still shaky. The Jacksonville defense is solid, but it wasn’t that impressive on the other side of the ball.”
Tennessee Titans (2-2, 3-1 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 8
- Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
- Titans -1.5, Total 43
This has flipped from Colts -1 to Titans -1.5, a tug-of-war Colucci called, “Tough, tough, tough two-way action.”
The game mystifies Colucci a bit, and its only significance is that the victor will own at least a portion of the top of the AFC South.
“I don’t know how good either team is. Both have shown flaws. We won’t get to a key number in this game.”
A toe issue has slowed Tennessee tailback Derrick Henry, who has 285 yards and two touchdowns this season on 73 carries. His 71 average yards would be his lowest output since 2018.
Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin leads the NFL with 36 solo tackles and 57 combined tackles.
New York Giants (1-3, 0-4 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (3-1, 3-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 8
- Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
- Dolphins -11.5, Total 48.5
Colucci has told anyone who would listen about the Giants’ woeful ability to come back when trailing, which has been proven true.
They are last in the league with a pathetic points-per-play margin of -0.317. All that says is that a whole lot is wrong with the team.
Miami is sixth, at 0.134. But QB Tua Tagovailoa is No. 1 with 9.9 yards per pass attempt. The Giants and QB Daniel Jones average only 5.8 yards a toss, but Miami’s pass defense (7.3 yards per throw) is 28th in the NFL.
Should Jones and his guys muster some drives, this total will be crushed.
Baltimore Ravens (3-1, 3-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 8
- Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
- Ravens -4, Total 38.5
The other play that drew Colucci’s attention, and wallet, last week was the home-dog Texans against the Steelers. Houston dismantled Pittsburgh, 30-6.
Pittsburgh had just played well in Las Vegas, he reasoned, traveled back home and then traveled to Houston.
“Are the Steelers good enough to win two road games like that?” Colucci said. “Another game I kind of sniffed out. Their team just isn’t good enough to keep going across the country.
“Another game where, if you pay attention and you’re looking at the schedule, and the strength of schedule, you’ll definitely sniff these games out.”
This spread moving from 2 to 4, and the total getting shaved by 3 points, to 38.5, tells Colucci something.
“That Pittsburgh is in a lot of trouble. We saw a lot of steam on the Under because the Steelers can’t score the ball.”
Steelers second-year QB Kenny Pickett (left knee), who is 9-7 in 16 career starts, said he’ll play Sunday.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0, 2-1-1 ATS) at LA Rams (2-2, 3-0-1 ATS)
- 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 8
- SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
- Eagles -4, Total 50.5
Many believed they saw the last of Rams QB Matthew Stafford last season. But here he is, keeping the Rams afloat without super receiver Cooper Kupp.
Colucci owed this total jumping from 47 to 50.5 due to the quarterback. “Because Stafford,” he said, “has been so effective.”
Puka Nacua, the 6-foot-1 rookie, has helped, snagging 39 passes for 501 yards (42 behind league-leader Justin Jefferson), but only one TD catch. Only one other Rams receiver has a TD reception.
He transformed his collegiate career when he transferred from Washington to BYU, where he recorded 11 TD catches his final two seasons, and ran five in as a senior.
Fourth-year receiver AJ Brown caught 18 passes from QB Jalen Hurts for 306 yards and two TDs in the Eagles’ first two games, but had only 11 for 108 yards in their past two tilts.
Kansas City Chiefs (3-1, 2-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3, 1-2-1)
- 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 8
- U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
- Chiefs -4.5, Total 52.5
Jefferson, the league’s best receiver, at home against a pass defense that somehow improves when it hits the highway, where the Chiefs allow a sixth-lowest 5.2 yards per pass.
“You can only go so far with Kirk Cousins,” Colucci said of the Minnesota quarterback, whose 104.4 QBR does rank him sixth in the NFL. “I’m hearing a lot of trade rumors with the Jets.
“I think the Chiefs blow them out in this position. The Chiefs had their letdown” with the Jets, last week, and still won, 23-20.
Dallas Cowboys (3-1, 3-1 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (4-0, 3-1 ATS)
- 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 8
- Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
- 49ers -4, Total 45
As a Cowboys fan, Colucci bemoaned this game because the Niners have eliminated Dallas from the past two playoffs.
However, in the regular season, the Cowboys have won their past four tilts in Northern California.
Niners tailback Christian McCaffrey leads the league with 600 all-purpose yards, 459 rushing yards, 80 runs and six ground TDs, tied with Miami’s Raheem Mostert.
San Francisco QB Brock Purdy owns the league’s top QBR, at 115.1, but the Cowboys have been stout, too. The Niners have the No. 1 PPP margin, at 0.268; the Cowboys are third, at 0.253.
This gets the Sunday-night spotlight for a reason.
“There will be a ton of action, and a lotta teasers and parlays from the afternoon games riding on this game. We could be in a four-way losing proposition on this game unless we get some significant wagers on either side.”
Green Bay Packers (2-2, 3-1 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-3, 1-3 ATS)
- 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, Oct. 9
- Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
- Packers -1, Total 44.5
In some shops that post summer advance lines, this favorite has flipped from Raiders -2 to Green Bay with a slim edge.
“Sharps jumped on it real early, [but] we’ll get a ton of Raiders buyback,” Colucci said. “My Raiders fans and public will come and bet the parlays and teasers on the Raiders, too.”
This outcome might depend on whether Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo (reportedly in “final concussion-protocol stages” Thursday) will be allowed to see action.
“He’ll probably suit up this week,” Colucci said. “I’m not sure how proven [Packers QB Jordan] Love is on the road just yet. If Jimmy G plays, the Raiders have a chance.”
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