LAS VEGAS — Lamarr Mitchell watched the Miami Dolphins slap 70 points on the Denver Broncos last Sunday, and he knew what was coming.
That no matter who Miami played this week, BetMGM’s director of trading would witness tidal waves of cash being bet on the Dolphins at the sportsbook’s eight Strip casinos.
This opened Buffalo -3 at home against the Dolphins on Sunday and by Wednesday had been carved to -2.5, at -120. BetMGM typically gets an abundance of sharp play come the weekend.
“The ticket count favors the Dolphins,” Mitchell said. “We did take large Joe Public money on the Bills, but it’s all Dolphins, as far as the tickets. The public sees the 70 points, and you know what the public does …
“That’s the last thing they remember. But the guys with the bigger bankrolls, they know this is a divisional game and they’re going to back the Bills.”
Since 1970, NFL teams that have tallied at least 60 points have gone 1-6 straight up, and 0-7 against the spread (failing to cover the spread by nearly 13 points), in their next game.
Atlanta Falcons (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2, 1-2 ATS)
- 9:30 a.m. EST, Sunday, Oct. 1
- Wembley Stadium, London
- Jaguars -3, Total 43.5
The Jaguars are 3-5 lifetime at Wembley.
The Falcons sport a worse away points-per-play margin (-0.220) than the Jaguars (0.145).
“But it’s Falcons’ money, all day, right now,” Mitchell said. “These England games don’t usually get action until the day of … but we did take a large wager on the Falcons — a regular Joe Public large bet.
“The ticket count is in favor of Jacksonville, but the money favors Atlanta.”
Miami Dolphins (3-0, 3-0 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
- Bills -2.5 (-120), Total 54
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in 15 categories, including passer rating (121.9), QBR (82.9), yards per throw (10.1) and passing-touchdown percentage (7.9%).
“We could be seeing an offense that will rock and roll every year, like Kansas City’s,” Mitchell said of Miami. “The one thing that Tua is known for is his accuracy; he’s putting the ball right there for his receivers.
“And like the late great John Madden said, it’s the YAC — the yards after catch — that’s phenomenal.”
Miami’s 499 YAC tops the NFL, followed by the Chargers (474) and Vikings (452). At 220, the Raiders are last.
Dolphins tailback Raheem Mostert has scored seven times, six on the ground; he’s on pace for 34 rushing TDs, which would break the 2006 single-season record of 28 set by LaDainian Tomlinson of the San Diego Chargers.
The Bills’ defensive yield of 5.9 yards per run is worst in the league. Mostert averages a top-10 5.9 yards per dash, and teammate De’Von Achane leads the NFL with his 10.9-yard average.
Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
- Browns -3 (-105), Total 40.5
It’s all Browns, according to Mitchell, which has boosted this spread from 2.5.
“Public parlays, large parlays, all the parlays involve the Browns. The ticket count is with the Browns. The money is on the Browns.
“Typically, that tells me, ‘Hey, let’s go the other way,’ if I were betting this … with the money and the tickets, and parlays and large wagers — and NOT the sharp play — on Cleveland, it says to me to look out for the Ravens in this spot.”
Los Angeles Rams (1-2, 2-0-1 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
- Colts -1 (-105), Total 46.5
Money has been a one-way street.
“Colts, Colts, Colts,” Mitchell said. “NOBODY is giving the Rams a shot.”
With rookie QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) out, reliever Gardner Minshew rallied the Colts to a 19-19 tie in the final two minutes last week in Baltimore, and Indy won in overtime, 22-19.
Minshew is 9-16 as a pro, with 7,030 yards, 46 TDs and 15 picks.
Zaire Franklin, Indy’s sixth-year linebacker out of Syracuse, is tops the league with 29 solo tackles and 45 combined takedowns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (2-1, 0-2-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
- Saints -3.5 (-105), Total 40.5
This spread ticked up from 3, then a BetMGM patron struck.
“A sharp bettor, a large wager on the Bucs,” Mitchell said. “The ticket count is even.”
The Bucs are 3-9 in their past dozen games in the The Big Easy.
Washington Commanders (2-1, 1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0, 2-0-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
- Eagles -8.5, Total 43.5
This opener has been bet up from 7.
“Tickets are overwhelmingly in favor of Philly, 11-1, and money is 8-1 on the Eagles,” Mitchell said. “Another divisional game, and no one’s really giving the Commanders any shot here.”
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at Houston Texans (1-2, 1-2 ATS)
- 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- NRG Stadium, Houston
- Steelers -3 (-105), Total 42
Pittsburgh is the only NFL team with two players who have forced multiple fumbles, both Cole Holcomb and TJ Watt, with two apiece. Watt is first with six sacks.
“That Pittsburgh defense has been a trademark of the teams since the 1970s,” Mitchell said. “It keeps them in the game till the offense can find its way.
“At some point, Kenny Pickett will grow into the quarterback they think he’ll be. But it’s the defense that’s carrying this team. Even though the money is even, the ticket count is all over the Steelers at a 7-1 clip.”
New England Patriots (1-2, 1-2 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
- 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- Cowboys -6.5 (-115), Total 43
Dallas leads both the money and ticket count by a 2-1 edge, but that will alter this weekend.
“The Cowboys are that team that everyone likes to bet,” Mitchell said, “[but] it won’t surprise me to see some sharp money come in on the Patriots. They’re a tricky team. Their offense isn’t that great; their defense isn’t that great.
“But you respect [coach Bill] Belichick. Yeah, you’re never sure about the Patriots.”
Arizona Cardinals (1-2, 3-0 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
- 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif.
- 49ers -14, Total 44
Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs, fresh off a home victory over Dallas — his first triumph in five career starts — tried buying his own No. 9 jersey this week inside his own team’s gift shop as presents for relatives.
However, the computerized order form did not include the 6-foot-3 slinger out of Tennessee on the Cardinals’ roster.
“That’s pretty bad,” Mitchell said. “It’s been all 49ers money, but the ticket count is even … a juicy 14 points!”
Niners tailback Christian McCaffrey averages 118 rushing yards a game, one of four NFLers in triple digits.
San Francisco QB Brock Purdy is 8-0 as an NFL starter.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at New York Jets (1-2, 1-2 ATS)
- 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Oct. 1
- MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
- Chiefs -9.5, Total 42
Zach Wilson, whose 57 QB Rating is 34th in the 32-team league, got called out this past week by none other than Jets legend Joe Namath.
“I’m starting to wonder if Zach’s playing like he’s being coached,” Joe Willie scrawled on social media. “He’s making choices that are not intuitive to the quarterback position.”
The BetMGM ticket count is 15-1 in favor of Kansas City.
“All Chiefs money, too,” Mitchell said. “And they’re Under in this game. We took a large Under wager from a sharp player.”
Kansas City linebacker Willie Gay piled onto Wilson, too, when asked what he’s seen from the Jets’ reserve thrower. “A team that wants to run the ball.”
Seattle Seahawks (2-1, 2-1 ATS) at New York Giants (1-2, 0-3 ATS)
- 8:15 ET, Monday, Oct. 2
- MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
- Giants -1 (-105), Total 47.5
This eked down from its 1.5 opener, with some advantage in giving the point. Both the tickets and money are 2-1 in favor of the Seahawks.
Mitchell said he suspects many know how poorly Giants QB Daniel Jones has performed in primetime. Since 1970, of quarterbacks with at least 10 such starts, Jones is an all-time worst 1-11.
In Week 1 on Sunday night, Dallas beat the Giants, 40-0. In Week 3 on a Thursday, the Niners defeated the Giants, 30-12.
Seattle QB Geno Smith sports a 98.2 QBR, eighth in the NFL.
“I think it’ll be tough sledding for the Giants,” Mitchell said.
Since 2020, Giants game are an NFL-best 66.4% (35-17-3) to Under.
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