LAS VEGAS — In Week 2, the public got even with Vegas bookmakers.
“It looked like we’d have an OK day, then a lot of parlays kicked in,” DraftKings race and sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. “The bettors had a really good week putting them together.
“The Dolphins were a big play. That kind of sealed the deal.”
Avello, the New York native and Vegas veteran Vegas (Las Vegas Hilton, Bally’s, Wynn Las Vegas), figured players will win more weeks than the books maybe every three or four years.
“Sometimes as a bookmaker, if you haven’t been in this game too long, you start thinking, ‘What am I dong wrong?’ You’re not doing anything wrong. You stay consistent, put up the numbers the way you think they should be put up, and let everything take care of itself.”
Atlanta Falcons (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Detroit Lions (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 24
- Ford Field, Detroit
- Falcons -3, Total 46
Detroit opened as a 5-point favorite, which immediately got bet down to 3.5 by the sharpest bettors and hit 3 Thursday. The total began at 40.5.
“It was certainly early sharp action,” Avello said. “Bijan Robinson looks like a good back, and the kid [Desmond] Ridder is playing pretty good.”
Ridder went 19-for-32, for 235 yards, a touchdown and interception, and was only sacked once against Green Bay. Robinson had 124 yards on 19 runs. Lions tailback David Montgomery (thigh) is out.
New Orleans Saints (2-0, 0-1-1 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
- 1 p.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 24
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis.
- Packers -2, Total 42.5
Packers QB Jordan Love was at his own 25 with 57 ticks left Sunday in Atlanta. Green Bay, which led 24-12, trailed 25-24.
Avello honed in on Love.
Love threw four consecutive incomplete passes.
“I watched to see if he had that IT factor; he doesn’t have it, yet. Will he get it? I don’t know.”
It is surprising that Green Bay is third in the league in points-per-play margin, at 0.275, behind Dallas (0.417) and San Francisco (0.284). Also, Love owns an NFL-best 118.7 passer rating.
Denver Broncos (0-2, 0-2 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
- 1 p.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 24
- Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.
- Dolphins -6.5, Total 48
DK opened this total 44.5, and Over bettors pounced, shooting it up to 48. The spread started at Miami -5.5, moved to -7 and settled here Thursday.
“The Dolphins just seem to be able to score against anybody,” Avello said. “It looks like a game in which there certainly will be some firepower.”
Behind fourth-year QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Fins top the NFL with 9.5 yards per throw. Tua leads the league in nine passing categories, including yards (715), and he’s only been sacked once.
The Broncos are 1-8 lifetime in Miami.
Buffalo Bills (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Washington Commanders (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
- 1 p.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 24
- FedEx Field, Landover, Md.
- Bills -6.5, Total 43.5
Josh Allen leads all quarterbacks with a 76.9 completion percentage.
Sam Howell, meanwhile, has directed two comeback triumphs for the Commanders.
“Howell has done a good job with this team,” Avello said. “But this is a big ask, to beat Buffalo. The way you do that is how the Jets did it, by putting a lot of pressure on the quarterback.”
Washington and Dallas are tied with the most sacks, at five. However, the Commanders are next-to-last, having allowed Howell to be sacked five times.
Indianapolis Colts (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
- 1 p.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 24
- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Md.
- Ravens -8, Total 44
Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson is in concussion protocol. If he can’t go, expect Gardner Minshew II, the long-haired slinger from Mississippi, to get the nod.
In 34 career NFL games, Minshew is 8-16 as a starter. He’s thrown for 6,803 yards, 45 TDs and 15 interceptions. He’s 1-3 for the Eagles in the past two seasons.
One of his 19 throws for the Colts this season, having played in both games, went for a touchdown.
“If Richardson plays, this will be tough for him going against this defense,” Avello said. “A real test. If he plays, maybe it drops to 7.5. If not, maybe it shoots to 8.5 or 9.
Chicago Bears (0-2, 0-2 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
- 4:25 p.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 24
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
- Chiefs -12.5, Total 47.5
Chicago has lost 12 consecutive games while allowing foes to tally at least 25 points in each, an NFL first. Overall, the Bears have lost 15 of their past 16 games.
Yet, Avello is not quick to give KC the triumph.
“The Chiefs sometimes play to the competition. They shouldn’t have a problem, when you look at the game on paper, but the Bears are capable … sharp players will see how high this line goes and maybe take the plus before kickoff.”
The Chargers are last in the league in yielding 9.7 yards per an opponent’s throw, Chicago and Seattle are next at 9.1. So KC QB Patrick Mahomes might have a wild day.
Dallas Cowboys (2-0, 1-0 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2, 2-0 ATS)
- 4:25 p.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 24
- State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
- Cowboys -12.5, Total 43
Avello notes how impressive Dallas has been, having outscored foes 70-10. The Cards, however, dropped their first two games but covered the spread in both tilts.
Joshua Dobbs, a 6-foot-3 QB out of Tennessee, has nearly a 70-percent completion rate in his fourth season as a professional.
He ran for a 23-yard TD against the Giants last Sunday, and his 3-yard TD pass to Marquise Brown gave Arizona a 28-7 lead early in the fourth quarter. But the Giants won on a Graham Gano 34-year field goal with 19 seconds left.
“Dobbs must be shell-shocked after last week,” Avello says. “Here the underdog is getting almost two TDs at home, so plenty of eyes will be on the Cards. There will be some guys who are savvy, or sharper, looking to see how high that spread goes before they maybe grab it.”
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
- 8:20 p.m. EST Sunday, Sept. 24
- Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev.
- Raiders -2.5, Total 43
The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites, but it has flipped to the Raiders in a big way. This total also started at 38.5.
“That was early sharp action,” Avello said. “[Receiver] Davante Adams is questionable. If he doesn’t play, it could swing the line at least a point, and the Steelers might even go off as the favorites.”
Since 2014, games involving the Steelers on the road have finished Under at a league-high 67.9-percent clip (52-24-2).
The Raiders are the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed a quarterback sack. Monday, the Steelers’ defense recorded six sacks, four takeaways and two TDs.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0, 0-1 ATS)
- 7:15. p.m. EST Monday, Sept. 24
- Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
- Eagles -4.5, Total 45.5
According to Boston-based Bet Labs, since 2003, in meetings of undefeated teams with at least two victories apiece, the home team is 67-47-3; a home dog in this situation is 29-14 (67%) ATS.
This opened Philly -7 but was soon sliced by a point and a half. Another point evaporated by Thursday.
The Baker Mayfield Effect? A sixth-year pro out of Oklahoma, Mayfield has started 71 of 74 NFL games, with a 61.6 completion percentage, 16,788 yards, 105 TDs and 64 picks.
“I don’t think the Eagles have played up to their potential, so far,” Avello said. “And the Buccaneers are one of the surprises of the NFL. Baker Mayfield is not scared of anything. He’s a gamer.
“Tough call. Do the Eagles put it all together, or is Tampa Bay actually much better than us bookmakers thought they were at the start of the season?”
Los Angeles Rams (1-1, 2-0 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-2, 0-2 ATS)
- 8:15. p.m. EST Monday, Sept. 24
- Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
- Bengals -3, Total 43.5
The Bengals have been bungling, and QB Joe Burrow tweaked a calf injury Sunday. If he can’t go, Avello expects Jake Browning to get the call.
This opened Bengals -7.5, with a 47 total, but quickly got sliced to 2 and 43.5, respectively. Cincy cash nudged it to 3 by Thursday.
“The Bengals are 0-2 and need this win,” Avello said. “There were a few lucky [bettors] who took that 7.5 before the injury was announced.”
A 6-foot-2 rookie, Browning threw for 12,296 yards, including 94 TDs and 34 interceptions, as a Husky at Washington from 2015-18. His single throw this season went incomplete.
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