NFL Week 3 parlay pick: Four moneyline favorites at +125 odds

NFL Week 3 betting lines feature some monster point spreads with the Cowboys and Chiefs both laying big numbers against (perceived) lesser foes. 

Point spreads be damned. One chalky angle of attack in betting NFL moneyline parlays involves combining multiple favorites just to win their games outright. We're deploying that strategy this week after both the Jaguars and Panthers both lost as home underdogs in Week 2.

That ambitious moneyline parlay would have paid out at 5-1 odds. Instead of being up $250, we're down $50 to start the season. That's why they call it gambling.

Go ahead and claim some of the most lucrative betting bonuses on top football betting apps before we get to our NFL Week 3 parlay pick.

NFL parlay pick for Week 3 of 2023 NFL season    

Our NFL Week 3 parlay features four favorites on the moneyline with odds from BetMGM. 

• Jaguars (-400 ML) over Texans
• Seahawks (-275 ML) over Panthers
• Cowboys (-700 ML) over Cardinals
• Chiefs (-650 ML) over Bears

Parlay Odds: +125

Implied Probability of Winning: 44.49%

Bet: $100

Parlay Payout: $225 (including your $100 bet stake back)

Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, Chiefs moneyline parlay for NFL Week 3 

A reminder here to line shop for the best moneyline odds on all of your NFL bets including parlays. BetMGM offered the Chiefs at -650, but Kansas City checked in at odds as high as -800 at other sportsbooks. No single book will have the best odds on every game, but just make sure you compare prices across the industry.   

Jaguars over Texans betting trends

Here's a kooky stat: Houston is 5-0 in its last five games at Jacksonville. That's not a misprint. The Jaguars haven't won a home game against their division rival since 2017. So why take the home team here? Because every good trend must come to an end.

We fully expect Jacksonville to rebound from a surprisingly low-scoring loss to the Chiefs, 17-9, at home last week. Jacksonville will not be held out of the end zone again. Jaguars RB Travis Etienne should feast against Houston's porous run defense.

Seahawks over Panthers betting analysis    

The Seahawks looked like world beaters in their comeback 37-31 OT win against the Lions. Now they'll face a depleted Carolina squad that already had trouble scoring points.  

Panthers QB Bryce Young (ankle) could give way to Andy Dalton, but that's likely a wash given the No. 1 pick's slow start to the season as he adjusts to NFL football. Carolina lost defensive stalwart and captain Shaq Thompson to the IR this week after he suffered a broken fibula vs. the Saints. Starting CB Jaycee Horn remains out with a hamstring.

Cowboys over Cardinals betting trends

Remember when the Cardinals appeared on the in-season version of Hard Knocks last year? It was a tough watch with then coach Kliff Kingsbury, QB Kyler Murray, and WR Deandre Hopkins suffering setback after setback each week.  

Now, none of them are protagonists in the still unfolding drama in Arizona. The Cardinals have endured nine straight losses dating back to last November. Make it 10 with the Cowboys coming to town.

Chiefs over Bears betting analysis

Three percent of FanDuel's moneyline handle on this game had come in on the Bears as of Thursday. That's just not responsible gambling.

The spread surged as high as Chiefs -13 across the industry in what will likely be the biggest number on any NFL Week 3 game come kickoff. Kansas City welcomed Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back to the fold and controlled the game on both sides of the ball in a 17-9 win at Jacksonville.

After losing the season opener at home to Detroit, expect Kansas City to reassert its dominance at Arrowhead against a Chicago team that saw defensive coordinator Alan Williams resign this week.

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