LAS VEGAS — In a largely quiet first few days of the NFL wagering week, the needle moved on the Bills, who play host to Dallas on Sunday evening.
Buffalo -1.5 eked out to -2.5 at BetMGM as professionals started moving it, and then squares jumped into the fray.
“The sharps are definitely on the Bills,” BetMGM director of trading Lamarr Mitchell says. “They bet the OVER as well, bumping it from 48.5 to 50.5. So far, that’s the most-bet game.
“By far, it’s the key matchup we’ve seen. Seems to be the hot play. Everyone is betting that, believe it or not. Everywhere else the action has been small, small, small.”
The ticket count is 3-to-1 in favor of the Cowboys, Mitchell reports. Unsurprising, he says, because Dallas, like San Francisco, is such a public team
“We expect Joe Public to come in with a lot more action on the Cowboys, and the ticket count will probably be 10-1 for Dallas. The sharps, meanwhile, are saying the Bills are definitely the play here.”
They must reconcile that they’re laying money on the league’s most-interception-prone quarterback. The Bills’ Josh Allen is tied with Washington’s Sam Howell atop that chart with 14 picks apiece.
Moreover, a month or so ago, chatter began circulating about the proposition on Allen to throw a pick. He has had a pass picked off in nine consecutive games, so anybody who has zeroed in on that prop has accumulated profit.
Which sets up a dilemma for Mitchell. It’s such a strong prop, the natural inclination—and wise business move—would be to increase its price.
However, Mitchell needs to remain competitive to draw business to the company’s eight Strip properties. And word has spread throughout the season about BetMGM’s superb prop menu, its depth and variety, and subsequent pricing.
At a competitor, Over 0.5 interceptions for Allen against Dallas is -140, or risk $140 to win $100.
“We’re actually pounding our heads,” Mitchell laughs about that particular Allen prop. “The public is betting OVER, and we’re basically trying to stay within the market price. But the public has been beating us to it.
“The market says that this is an MVP-caliber quarterback who shouldn’t be a turnover, or interception, machine like that. But, yeah, it’s a small price. The market hasn’t adjusted to it, yet, but it’s good for the public to win.”
NFL Week 15 game-by-game sharp money report
Here's a look at the best games of Week 15, including the latest NFL odds from top-rated sportsbooks, and insights from Mitchell.
Minnesota Vikings (7-6, 7-4-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS)
- Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
- Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Jake Browning, the Bengals’ 27-year-old rookie quarterback, lost his debut as a starter at home to Pittsburgh, 16-10. Since, he’s 2-0, having gone 50-for-61, with three TDs and an interception, and he’s run two in for scores.
This budged from a BetMGM opener of 3.5 to 4, crossing back over some key terrain to its current spread with Minnesota influence from Wednesday to Thursday.
“The Bengals are a small loser for us, right now," Mitchell said. "Browning has played like that original five-star high school recruit that he was supposed to be. He’s definitely playing at a supremely high level right now.”
Nick Mullens, 28, gets his first start for the Vikes. He’s 5-12 as an NFL starter, having lost his last one, at home for Cleveland in a 16-14 defeat to Las Vegas in 2021; he went 20-for-30, for 147 yards and a touchdown
More on this game: Vikings vs. Bengals odds, props, predictions
Denver Broncos (7-6, 5-7-1 ATS) at Detroit Lions (9-4, 8-5 ATS)
- Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Ford Field, Detroit, MI
The tickets are even, but money has come in at a 2-1 clip on Denver.
“Nothing on UNDER,” Mitchell says. “The Broncos’ defense has gotten them back into playoff contention; it isn’t the same defense that gave up 70 points to the Dolphins earlier this year.”
The Broncos have won six of their past seven, yielding an average of 15.6 points to those foes. And they have an astounding takeaway-giveaway ratio of 15-3 in that splendid run. Since ’99, they’re 2-1 in Detroit.
Winning time in Denver?: It could be a good time to start betting Broncos futures
Chicago Bears (5-8, 6-5-2 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (8-5, 7-5-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
The Bears have become stingy, having allowed 5.1 yards per pass over their past three games. That’s third in the league, behind the Jets (4.5) and Giants (4.8).
Overall, Chicago has produced a very neutral 0.01 points-per-play margin in that span, while Cleveland sports a third-worst rate of -0.174.
Veteran QB Joe Flacco is 1-1 in two starts for the Browns, throwing for 565 yards but completing less than 60 percent of his attempts, with five TDs and two interceptions.
It’ll be 50 at kickoff, with a 41 percent chance of rain.
Kansas City Chiefs (8-5, 7-6 ATS) at New England Patriots (3-10, 3-10 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Early on, tickets were 4-1, money 2-1, on Kansas City. But bettors took the 10 points, then the 9 and 8.5, slicing it to 8 by Thursday morning.
Mitchell believes squares will pour their money on the Chiefs when they flood into Vegas today and Friday.
More on this game: Chiefs vs. Patriots odds, props, predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7, 8-5 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (6-7, 7-6 ATS)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
The Packers had won 16 consecutive December games until running into Giants QB Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito on Monday.
A botched 2-point Green Bay run with 93 seconds left gave DeVito the opening and time to maneuver New York downfield for a field goal and 24-22 victory.
The Pack giving 6 to 6.5 on the highway might have been a tall order, Mitchell says. “Too much on the road. This number here, 3.5 at home in Lambeau, is probably right.”
Tampa has won only once in 15 regular-season trips to Lambeau, a 17-16 decision in 2005. However, the Bucs won both of the playoff games they’ve played in Green Bay.
It’ll be 38 degrees at kickoff, heating up to 40.
Dallas Cowboys (10-3, 9-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (7-6, 5-8 ATS)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
During the Cowboys’ current five-game winning streak, they have eight takeaways and only three giveaways, and half of those takeaways have been picks.
DaRon Bland, the Cowboys’ second-year defensive back out of Fresno State, leads the NFL with eight interceptions. Bland continuing Allen’s interception streak might be a dream prop.
A temperature in the high 40s is expected at kickoff, with a 40 percent chance of rain increasing in the second half. Dallas has dropped three of its past four in Buffalo, tallying 16 total points in the three defeats.
Dak for MVP?: Latest NFL MVP betting odds
Baltimore Ravens (10-3, 8-5 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5, 8-5 ATS)
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
- TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Mitchell was surprised to see Jags QB Trevor Lawrence playing last week, in a 31-27 back-and-forth defeat in Cleveland.
The ankle sprain Lawrence suffered the previous week must not have been too severe. He threw 50 passes against the Browns, for 257 yards, three TDs and three interceptions.
It was the second multi-pick game in five tilts for Lawrence.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has had one such outing this season. In his past seven games, he has 11 TD passes and three picks.
It’s expected to be in the high 50s at kickoff, with a 39 percent likelihood of precipitation and steady 17 mph winds.
Philadelphia Eagles (10-3, 7-4-2 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (6-7, 7-5-1 ATS)
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Early money favored the Eagles by a 2-1 count, tickets, 3-1, bumping this spread up from 3.5. At kickoff, it’s expected to be in the high 40s with a 63-percent chance of rain throughout the game.
“I can’t imagine the Eagles having three bad games in a row,” Mitchell says. “And Joe Public has been all over them.”
Seattle has dropped five of its past six, and Drew Lock is expected to get another start filling in for Geno Smith (groin). In losing at San Francisco last weekend, Lock went 22-for-31, for 269 yards, two TDs and two interceptions.
“A contending team losing that many in a row tends to bounce back against teams they have a decidedly big advantage against. Even with it being a cross-country trip for the Eagles, it’s a tough spot for the Seahawks.”
Philly, however, has lost its past seven overall games to the Seahawks. And in the Emerald City, the Eagles have lost their past three by scores of 24-10, 26-15 and 31-14.
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