Football is back and it’s time to attack the betting card in search of the best NFL Week 1 teaser pick.
Are you familiar with Wong Teasers? Named after Stanley Wong - the pen name of betting guru John Ferguson - this teaser bet focuses exclusively on underdogs getting +1.5 to +2.5 points and favorites laying -7.5 to -8.5 points.
A Wong Teaser gives you the ability to cross through the most critical numbers of “3” and “7” in football betting. You’re betting a two-team, 6-point teaser at odds of -120, meaning you’re betting $120 to win $100 with the luxury of adjusting the spread in your favor by six points in both games.
Wong Teasers historically performed better and provided an edge against bookies. This forced sportsbooks to make adjustments including shorting prices, counting ties as losses, etc.
The key is to find Wong Teasers available at the -120 price and understand your sportsbook’s policies on how these bets are settled. Let’s take a look at the best Wong Teaser for NFL Week 1.
Wong Teaser Pick for Week 1 of 2023 NFL Season
There are four teams that qualify as Wong Teaser candidates based on the current odds at FanDuel.
- Steelers +2.5
- Browns +2.5
- Packers +1.5
- Jets +2.5
Resulting Wong Teaser Spreads:
- Steelers +8.5
- Browns +8.5
- Packers +7.5
- Jets +8.5
If you’re a fan of betting home underdogs in general, this is an attractive slate of adjusted spreads. The Steelers, Browns, and Jets are all expected to be on the rise this season. For the purposes of our Wong Teaser, we can only choose two of the three teams. Here we go.
Week 1 Teaser Pick: Browns +8.5 AND Jets +8.5
Bengals at Browns +8.5
Cleveland still has one of the NFL’s best rushers in Nick Chubb, who was third in the NFL with 1,525 yards on the ground last season. But the Browns are expected to open up the offense under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Expect a more pass-heavy approach with QB Deshaun Watson looking more like his old self rather than last year’s rust-addled iteration.
Is Bengals QB Joe Burrow fully recovered from the calf injury that sidelined him early in the preseason? It appears so, but we’re anticipating a close game between these two AFC North rivals.
Cincinnati's offensive firepower is scary when the trio of Burrow, WR Ja'Marr Chase, and RB Joe Mixon are in mid-season form. Fortunately, for us, the Bengals are playing their season opener just like the NFL's 31 other teams.
Perhaps Burrow's extended absence in the preseason factors into a relatively ho-hum outing here. Cincy's fortunes have been on the rise in recent years, but that hasn't translated to head-to-head success versus Cleveland.
The Browns have owned the Bengals, going 5-1 straight-up in the last five meetings between these teams dating back to 2020.
Give us Cleveland +8.5.
Bills at Jets +8.5
It’s New York’s defense that makes this a delicious play as much as the arrival of much-ballyhooed QB Aaron Rodgers. The Jets yielded only 18.6 points per game in 2022, and only the 49ers were stingier.
New York arguably owns the league's best front four led by RDT Quinnen Williams. Williams can be found on the top-five list of NFL interior defenders at Pro Football Focus.
Josh Allen will be forced from the pocket to scamper often in the opener, and we don’t envision second-year RB James Cook running wild against the Jets. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis return as receiving threats, but the Jets also have a stout secondary led by CB Sauce Gardner.
New York head coach Robert Saleh expects RB Breece Hall to be available on Monday night, but the Jets have a shiny new toy to play with in Dalvin Cook. WR Garrett Wilson also gives Rodgers another lethal weapon through the air.
The Bills also boast a highly regarded defensive unit, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this contest go Under 46.5.
The Jets and Bills combined for 37 and 32 points last year when the two teams split the regular season series. That speaks volumes about New York’s defense considering Zach Wilson and Mike White started at QB for the Jets in those games.
Now you’re going to give us the Rodgers-led Jets +8.5? Thank you kindly.
Our Pick: Browns +8.5 and Jets +8.5
Bet Stake: $120 to win $100
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