LAS VEGAS — For three months, the Westgate SuperBook has posted every line for every NFL game, and the sharpest bettors picked and poked at those spreads.
SuperBook executive vice president Jay Kornegay watched the money flow in, at $3,000 maximums, and his lieutenants moved the numbers accordingly.
“Oh, sure, there’s been plenty of it as information, and reports from the training camps about how certain players have been looking, comes in,” he said of action by the supposed wisest of bettors.
The SuperBook boosted its max to $20,000 this week for Week 1.
We’ll address the seven games that have been affected by the professionals. Two of those involve rookie quarterbacks, and a third game will see someone play his first NFL game as a starting signal-caller.
Long Island handicapper Tom Barton downplayed the significance any of them will play.
He bet on under propositions involving Anthony Richardson of Indianapolis, Bryce Young of Carolina and CJ Stroud of Houston.
“Those will be fun money-makers,” Barton says. “Under in yards, over in interceptions. Everyone will realize that Richardson, Young and Stroud … none of them can play in the NFL.”
Kornegay did not disagree with Barton.
“It makes sense,” Kornegay says. “But I think the spreads reflect that. Those thoughts are built into the line.”
Here's a look at the weekend slate, with last season’s records:
Carolina Panthers (7-10, 9-8 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (7-10, 9-8 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Falcons , Total
We begin with Bryce Young, the undersized sparkplug out of Alabama who starts for Carolina in Atlanta. It isn’t one of the seven games that the sharps have tapped at the SuperBook, but the Falcons’ edge has been bumped from 3 to 3.5 points.
A rookie making his NFL debut, and he’s starting, and it’s only at the game’s key position … and while we’re at it, it’s on unfriendly, foreign turf.
“We all know the Falcons aren’t anything to write home about, but here we are,” Kornegay says. “They’re 3.5-point favorites over the Panthers. That tells me that that’s built into a rookie quarterback starting his very first NFL game on the road.”
This total has been whittled from a 42.5 opener.
“It’s more of an opinion in the markets, that both offenses will struggle.”
Houston Texans (3-13-1, 8-8-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (10-7, 8-9-1 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m.
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Ravens , Total
Next up, as far as rookie quarterbacks making their first NFL start away from home, is Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, who gets the nod at QB1 for Houston.
This market has been fluctuating between 9.5 and 10.
“Going against a rookie quarterback or not,” Kornegay says, “that’s still a lot of points to lay in the NFL.”
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4, 13-6 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (7-10, 8-9 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Bengals , Total
As if the Browns haven’t cultivated enough drama, they’ve guaranteed $230 million to a quarterback, Deshaun Watson, who might not exactly possess the moral fabric of a prototypical franchise quarterback.
And he might not even be the best signal-caller on his own team.
That’s what emerged out of training camp, where reports tapped ex-UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the one rookie footballer who shined the most in any NFL camp.
On the other side, it’s the veteran Joe Burrow out of LSU who can be expected to have short AFC MVP odds every August. He might even sign a new mega-deal before this game begins.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, 10-9 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1, 6-11 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Jaguars , Total
This is where some major storylines converge into a compelling knot.
Sharps have moved this line up a point in some places, from Jags -4, in the first of the seven games Kornegay earmarked as having been affected by their wallets. The total has received a healthy boost from 43.5, too.
It makes sense, since so many are so bold about Jacksonville third-year QB Trevor Lawrence. At BetMGM, his odds of throwing for the most TDs have been cut from 40-to-1 to 16-1, as most of that money (16.4%) has been wagered on him.
On the other side, ex-Florida Gators QB Anthony Richardson will take the first snaps of his NFL career behind center for the Colts.
Barton likes to relay a scene from April’s NFL draft, when Richardson was taken with the fourth overall pick. Barton’s wife, Abby, a Florida State graduate, sat at Tom’s side, and she was bemused and perplexed.
“The guy from Florida? He can’t throw. He couldn’t beat us!”
At home in Tallahassee on Nov. 25, the Seminoles beat the Gators, 45-38. Richardson completed only nine of 27 throws, for three touchdowns, and had one picked off. FSU ran 46 times for 262 yards and two TDs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, 4-13-1) at Minnesota Vikings (13-4, 7-10-1)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Vikings , Total
Kornegay witnessed the sharpest of bettors take 6.5 points, which moved this to 6. They kept taking it, so the SuperBook made it 5.5.
“The public probably disagrees, but giving points in the NFL is just not easy to do,” he says. “I don’t care what the matchup is, at home or on the road, giving up nearly a touchdown is quite a bit.”
He doesn’t believe Tampa Bay’s offensive line is very good, and he questions the number of playmakers on the Bucs’ roster.
Over the past two seasons, Vikings games are an NFL-high 23-12 (65.7%) to the over.
Tennessee Titans (7-10, 9-7-1 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (7-10, 7-10 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Saints , Total
For the third consecutive game on the rotation list, the sharps fired away, aiming their cash at Titans getting 3.5 points. Kornegay’s crew cut it to 3, but instead of moving it more they slapped a -120 premium on that figure.
It has settled at 3, -110 both ways.
“We think there might be some public play coming in on the Saints, closer to game time,” Kornegay says. “We’ll see about that. We didn’t want to make a big move and expose that 3, so we decided to make it a split line till they force us to go to 2.5.”
San Francisco 49ers (13-4, 13-7 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8, 10-6-1 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Niners , Total
For the fourth rotation number in a row, the wise guys flashed enough juice to move this off its opener of 3.
And we’ll see if Brock Purdy vs. Kenny Pickett resembles Joe Montana vs. Terry Bradshaw, these teams’ respective stars of another era.
The big winner here is Niners lineman Nick Bosa, who this week inked the biggest deal (a five-year extension at $170 million) for a defensive player in NFL history.
At Station Casinos, the chain of sportsbooks that ring Vegas to service locals, only one team’s projected summer victory total has had waves of cash increase that figure by a whole game.
That’s the Steelers, whose 8.5 (over -140) has been bet up to 9.5 (under -155). Typically, Pittsburgh is one of the handful of NFL squads that is very public, with rafts of people who blindly support them with their wallets.
Since 2021, the Niners are 25-15 (62.5%) ATS, second only to Detroit (67.6%, at 23-11) in that span.
Arizona Cardinals (4-13, 8-9 ATS) at Washington Commanders (8-8-1, 8-8-1 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 1 p.m. ET
FedExField, Landover, MD
Commanders , Total
How can the drafting of one guy ruin a franchise? That might be a bit of an exaggeration about Cards QB Kyler Murray, whose knee surgery might sideline him the entire season, but not by much.
Josh Dobbs, who has started twice in eight games over three NFL seasons, starts for Arizona. He’s 0-2, with two TD passes and two interceptions.
“You have to cringe a little bit when you look at the Cardinals going into the season,” Kornegay says. “They could be competitive in the beginning, 'till their spirit is broken.
“It could get ugly, from the middle to the late part of the season, especially if Murray doesn’t come back. They might hold him out all year.”
That explains why the general public eked the Commanders up from 6-point opening favorites.
“I think there’s a lot of optimism in Washington. I think the Commanders are a little underrated going into the season. I like their defense. I think they could surprise a few people.”
Green Bay Packers (8-9, 8-9 ATS) at Chicago Bears (3-14, 5-11-1 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 4:25 p.m. ET
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Bears , Total
Is Jordan Love about to begin a 15-year stretch of dominance against the Bears, copying predecessors Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers?
That would be cruel to Chicago. Short term, the Bears went into camp with issues on both lines, and they’ve had to scramble to fill offensive line spots due to injuries.
Plus, reports about Love’s camp haven’t been negative. Thus, the opener of Chicago -3 has been scraped to a point. Three points have been sliced off this total.
“I have heard that Love has looked better than they thought he was going to look,” Kornegay says. “That combination could be a reason. That’s a pretty big move, but I haven’t listed it as sharp; it’s more of a market move than sharp.”
The Bears are a woeful 11-22-1 (33.8%) ATS over the past two seasons, the worst cover rate in the league.
Las Vegas Raiders (6-11, 8-9) at Denver Broncos (5-12, 7-10)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 4:25 p.m. ET
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Broncos , Total
Since Station Casinos opened its season victory totals over the summer, only one team’s figure has been chopped by a full game.
Inflows of cash have bumped the number of the Raiders from 7.5 (under -160) to 6.5 (under -120). That the under still comes at a premium indicates a likely rough season.
This is the fifth of the seven games that have been influenced by sharp coin, according to Kornegay, who watched a 3.5 opener get pushed to 4 by the public. Sharps swarmed in to take the 4, which squeaked it back down a bit.
The Raiders sport a capable quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, and a dynamic receiver in Davante Adams. However, the holdout by tailback Josh Jacobs didn’t exactly build team morale.
“When those guys hold out, it’s a little concerning,” Kornegay says. “When they have long holdouts like that, the results have been more unfavorable than favorable.”
A lifelong Broncos fan who calls Colorado home, Kornegay cringes when recalling last season’s disaster with quarterback Russell Wilson. Kornegay expects new coach Sean Payton, who owns a Super Bowl ring, to fix that issue.
“If there’s anyone who can do it, it’ll be [Payton]. He’s a no-nonsense guy, and I think that’s exactly what they need. It was more of a country club atmosphere. Payton got there and said, ‘No. We’re a team. We won’t have special treatment for certain players.’”
Miami Dolphins (9-8, 10-8 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (10-7, 11-6-1 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 4:25 p.m. ET
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Chargers , Total
Kornegay pauses when we arrive at San Francisco-Pittsburgh, declaring it will likely be his shop’s featured morning tilt, the one big-screen affair whose volume will fill his book.
In the afternoon, expect to see and hear Fins-Chargers at the SuperBook.
“A great matchup. I think you’ll see a lot of offense. It’s the highest total of all Sunday games. That makes sense to me. Both offenses are healthy, and I expect both offenses to click.”
Kornegay is bullish on Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa.
“I heard he’s been taking tae kwon do lessons, to learn how to fall and protect himself better when he gets sacked," Kornegay said. "With all the weapons they have there, I think Miami will score a lot of points.”
Since 2018, nobody in the NFL has a better home ATS record than the Dolphins’ 65.9% rate, at 27-14.
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 10-10 ATS) at New England Patriots (8-9, 7-9-1 ATS)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Eagles , Total
Patriots supporters have whittled this spread down from 5, and Kornegay predicted a tougher campaign for the Eagles, last season’s Super Bowl losers.
Unlike last year, Philly plays AFC East foes this season.
“And everybody in the AFC East is really tough," Kornegay said. "Every single one of them has a pretty decent defense. Think about that — the Patriots, Jets, Dolphins and Bills. Whew!”
Eagles fourth-year QB Jalen Hurts has started 30 games the past two combined seasons, running for 10 TDs as a sophomore, and 13 last season. Kornegay doesn’t envision that output being repeated.
“I expect that he has fewer rushing touchdowns," he said. "Their offense exploded last season, but teams make adjustments. It’s a different year, different chemistry, a different vibe. A lot of things can derail a Super Bowl team from the previous year.”
In the past two seasons, Eagles games finish under an NFL-best 61.8% (21-13) of the time.
Los Angeles Rams (5-12, 6-9-2 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (9-8, 7-11 ATS)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Seahawks , Total
By all accounts, the Cards and the Rams will supposedly duke it out in the tanking department, to be able to draft Caleb Williams out of USC with the next draft’s top pick.
“Yeah, there’s talk about that,” Kornegay says. “How do you do that? It isn’t like you have a team meeting and say, ‘Hey, guys, we’re going to under-perform this year, OK? Ready. Break!’
“But I heard that those are the two front-runners. If [Rams QB Matthew] Stafford gets banged up just a little bit, you know what? ‘We’ll rest him.’ But if they’re making a run to the playoffs, he would be playing.”
At DraftKings, Williams is -500 to be the first pick in the next NFL draft. Drake Maye — the North Carolina slinger whom Phil Steele, in his comprehensive annual, rates as the college game’s best quarterback — is +550, and Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is a 15-to-1 shot.
A hamstring injury will force Rams super-talented wideout Cooper Kupp to miss this one.
On the other side, Kornegay trumpets the Seahawks' Geno Smith, who turns 33 on Oct. 10, started every game of the 2022 season for the first time since his rookie campaign of 2013, and recorded personal bests with 4,282 yards and 30 TD passes. He inked a new three-year, $105M deal in the offseason.
“Seattle has a lot of good things happening," Kornegay said. "Certainly, if Geno performs like he did last year, they’re a contender coming out of the NFC. People always talk about either the Cowboys or Eagles, but don’t sleep on those Seahawks. They could really make a run.”
Dallas Cowboys (12-5, 11-8 ATS) at New York Giants (9-7-1, 14-5 ATS)
Sunday, Sept. 10, 8:20 p.m. ET
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Cowboys , Total
In the seventh and final game that sharps have affected, the premium on taking the field goal has been flipped to giving it.
“Two teams surrounded by optimism,” Kornegay says. “I think we see that in Dallas almost every year. In New York, it’s different. The Giants have a chance to be a surprise team, with a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.
Giants QB Daniel Jones has a new four-year, $160M contract.
Kornegay expects the Cowboys to make the playoffs, nothing more. Much will be expected of fifth-year tailback Tony Pollard, who had surgery to correct high-ankle ligament damage in January.
Dallas released Ezekiel Elliott in March. In 2022, Pollard — listed at 6 feet, 209 pounds — busted the four-figure barrier, with 1,007 yards, for the first time. He had nine rushing TDS, three through the air.
“He’s a key component now. If he gets hurt, they’ll struggle," Kornegay said. "They don’t have the luxury of the two-headed monster they’ve been living with the past two years. Pollard is not that big of a guy, so there are question marks whether he can handle being an ‘RB1.’ We’ll see.”
Buffalo Bills (13-3, 8-9-1) at New York Jets (7-10, 8-9)
Monday, Sept. 11, 8:15 p.m. ET
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Bills , Total
We save the best for last, a bar bet that can be implemented immediately.
Did Aaron Rodgers throw for 300 yards in any game for Green Bay last season?
No, he did not. His high was 291 yards in a dreadful defeat in Detroit in late November.
That astounds Kornegay, but he doesn’t foresee a bad chapter in New York.
“We all know about the hype surrounding the Jets," Kornegay said. "We’ll have to see if they can back it up. They have a very good defense, very good receivers, their offensive line is questionable …
“But Rodgers makes a lot of mediocre lines look okay to good, he is so freakin’ good reading the defenses and not taking a lot of hits, and making plays. He does some oddball things off the field, but he can perform. I think he will be pretty good.”
Conversely, for a change, it’s been relatively quiet in Buffalo, a big-picture view that Kornegay says should be heeded.
“The Bills were all the talk last year, and we haven’t heard anything from them this offseason," he said. "They’re in the weeds, and everybody had better be careful about that. I think they’re really loving this.
“Without all the hype, I think that’s a team that could easily end up with the best record in the AFC.”
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