LAS VEGAS — Under went 12-2-1 last weekend in the NFL, boosting its success rate to 61 percent this season. And in many games for Week 7, opening totals were sliced by 2, 3 and 3.5 points within 48 hours.
Veteran Vegas bookmaker Johnny Avello, who directs race and sports at DraftKings, knows who is affecting those numbers.
“Those original moves are sharp,” he says. “Anytime you see an opening total go down, 90 percent of the time that’s a sharp play.”
He forecasts how they will play out the rest of the season.
“There will be a little bit of a reversal. You’ll see some of the totals come back and go Over. But I think, for the year, they’ll end up on the Under side. It isn’t that we’re pricing the totals too high, it’s just that the offenses are underachieving.”
Indeed, last weekend 25 teams tallied 21 points or fewer, an NFL record for one week of games.
“I think it will stay that way," Avello said. "Unders will probably end up somewhere in the 56 percent area by the time the season is over.”
NFL Week 7 Sharp Money Report
Cleveland Browns (3-2, 3-2 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3, 3-3 ATS)
- Sunday 1 p.m. ET
- Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- Browns , Total
Two of the more intriguing games last weekend featured the Niners in Cleveland and the Eagles at the Jets, and the two underdog home teams with mediocre quarterbacks prevailed.
That was due to their exceptional defenses, which still means plenty in the NFL.
“Well, it does, because they know in order to win those games [they] have to slow down some of the better offenses,” Avello says. “The defense kind of rises to the occasion, knowing that’s the situation.”
The Browns yield only 12.8 points per game at home, third-best in the league. Now, though, they hit the road yielding more than double (26) that figure.
Indy allows 25.3 points a game.
Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson’s season-ending shoulder injury means Gardner Minshew III takes over. In two road starts, he’s thrown 99 passes, two for TDs and three for interceptions.
Browns QB Deshaun Watson said Wednesday it’s “up in the air” whether he’ll play; he’s listed as “out” on one site. The league is increasingly looking into the legitimacy of his shoulder issue.
PJ Walker, 5-3 as an NFL starter, would again replace Watson.
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Buffalo Bills (4-2, 3-3 ATS) at New England Patriots (1-5, 1-5 ATS)
- Sunday 1 p.m. ET
- Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
- Bills , Total
Asked about his throwing shoulder, which took a hit Sunday, Buffalo QB Josh Allen provided an update Wednesday; “No concernment.”
His QB Rating of 102.8 is fourth in the NFL. He’s tops, however, at obsolete Middle English dictionary usage
This total opened 43.5. Moreover, this is New England’s largest home-underdog spread since Sept. 30, 2001, when Tom Brady made his starting début and was a 12.5-point dog; he beat Indy, 44-13.
Mac Jones, coach Bill Belichick’s current QB, is tied for 29th in the league at 6 yards per pass, and his QBR (74.4) is 30th.
The Patriots have the third-worst points-per-margin home rate, at -0.247, behind the New York Giants (-0.582) and Washington (-0.261). On the road, the Bills (at 0.122) are sixth in the league.
Atlanta Falcons (3-3, 1-5 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
- Sunday 1 p.m. ET
- Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Bucs , Total
This total opened at 42.
Tampa QB Baker Mayfield injured his left (non-throwing) hand Sunday, X-rays proved negative and in practice Wednesday he threw a left-handed pass. So, yeah, he’ll play.
He has seven TD passes this season, but he had none last week in a 20-6 home defeat to Detroit. He has had a pass picked off in each of his past three games.
Falcons rookie QB Desmond Ridder is 3-1 at home, 0-2 on the road, having scored a total of 13 total points on the highway, with 11 sacks.
Atlanta has averaged 12.5 points over its past four games, the Bucs 14.3 over their previous three tilts. Games involving these two are a combined 9-2 to Under this season.
Avello says, “Looks like another Under.”
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Detroit Lions (5-1, 5-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2, 4-2 ATS)
- Sunday 1 p.m. ET
- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
- Ravens , Total
Over their past 40 games, the Lions are a ridiculous 28-12 against the number. They seem to be on a mission under third-year coach Dan Campbell.
QB Jared Goff’s MVP odds are 20-1 at DraftKings.
“That’s a good price for him,” Avello says. “That race is usually won by somebody during the final four or five weeks of the year, so it’s a good time to jump on somebody if you can get a good number.”
Goff’s QBR of 105.1 trails only Tua Tagovailoa (114.1) of Miami and Brock Purdy (111.9) of San Francisco.
“It’s a tough game and a tough spot, one of those games you can’t say, 'Well, Baltimore has the advantage here because of its offense, or, Detroit is at a big disadvantage because they’re at Baltimore.'
“Tough call,” Avello says. “One of those games that’s probably a pass.”
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2, 3-2 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3, 4-1-1 ATS)
- Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
- So-Fi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Rams , Total
The unusual opening total (42.5) was bet up in early wagering.
“The Rams have been better than I thought they’d be,” Avello says. “Those two receivers are pretty dangerous, and Pittsburgh teams are impossible to figure out.”
On the road, the Steelers’ defense yields 8.1 yards per pass, fourth-worst in the NFL. That might bode well for Rams QB Matthew Stafford and receivers Puka Nacua (averaging eight catches and 100 yards) and Cooper Kupp (seven, 133).
Arizona Cardinals (1-5, 3-3 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2, 3-2 ATS)
- Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
- Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
- Seahawks , Total
Seattle giving more than a touchdown to anyone, anywhere, seems tricky.
“I think it is,” Avello says. “I think this Seahawks team is better than average. They played OK at Cincinnati last week. But you can’t trust a team like that to cover a big number, and it’s a divisional game. Seems like a lot of points.”
The Cardinals are 3-7 in their past 10 against the 'Hawks.
L.A Chargers (2-3, 2-3 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-1, 4-2 ATS)
- Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Chiefs , Total
This total opened at 52.
Kansas City averages 24.5 points, its lowest weekly output since 2016 (23.8 ppg). The Chargers average 25.4. However, they only check in at 23 over their past three, and they tallied 17 last weekend.
“When these two meet, it’s usually tight,” Avello says. “Our power ratings show that they’re not that far apart. That’s why the spread seems relatively low.”
Miami Dolphins (5-1, 5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-1, 3-2-1 ATS)
- Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
- Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
- Eagles , Total
The Eagles started a gauntlet of a run last weekend, losing at the Jets.
After the Fins, they’re at Washington, Dallas, at Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, at Dallas and at Seattle. Most are top-five squads, says one computer, save for the Commanders, which might be Philly’s lone victory in this run.
The Seahawks aren’t in the top five, either, but they do yield a mere 2.5 yards per carry to opposing rushers, tied for first in the league. And that’s what the Eagles do best, as their 150 average rushing yards a game ranks second.
“I don’t know if Philly is slowing down Miami, and I’m not sure Miami is slowing the Eagles down,” Avello says. “This is one of those games that is kind of contrarian to the Under; this one will probably get bet Over.”
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San Francisco 49ers (5-1, 4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-4, 2-3-1)
- Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
- U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- Niners , Total
The 49ers own the league’s best points-per-play margin, of 0.259, with Buffalo placing (at 0.210) and Miami showing (0.204). Their away margin of 0.206 is No. 1, too.
However, tailback Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and receiver Deebo Samuel (shoulder) both got banged up last weekend in Cleveland.
McCaffrey said he expects to play, but even if he doesn’t reports have at least cleared him from serious injury. Samuel, undergoing further tests, was listed as day-to-day.
“You have to wait and see who’s playing,” Avello says. “We’re forced to put them up, but bettors aren’t forced to bet them. They’ll probably just wait and bet the 49ers, so maybe it’s a good time to grab [the Niners].”
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