LAS VEGAS — The two divisional round games involving conference champions, who received byes last week when the NFL Playoffs started, take place Saturday, and Jay Kornegay has watched both favorites -- the Ravens and 49ers -- bop between 9 and 9.5 points.
The executive vice president of the Westgate SuperBook didn’t exactly consider this tug-of-war sharp action, nor did he believe it represented muscle-flexing by the public, which typically begins Friday.
“The two big favorites have fluctuated back and forth; nine, nine-and-a-half, nine, nine-and-a-half,” Kornegay said. “We have seen some books pop a 10 up every once in a while, but they disappear fairly quickly.
“It’s just the markets going back and forth on both of those games. There’s interest in both big dogs (Texans and Packers), and it sounds like there’s interest in both big favorites, too.”
Kornegay is just the guy to tap for expertise and insights since he won the Last Vegas Review-Journal’s season-long handicapping contest.
A select panel of contestants picked five games a week, against the number, and Kornegay took the grand prize — bragging rights for a year — with a winning percentage a couple of hairs north of 70 percent.
“Didn’t really do anything differently this year than normal,” he said. “Things fell my way, I guess. One of those crazy years. We all know it’s so difficult and challenging. I’m sure next year I’ll be close to 50 percent, like everybody else.”
Those two conference champs are key, to Kornegay, in the long run because he believes Baltimore and San Francisco will play in Super Bowl 58, just a few miles south of the Westgate inside Allegiant Stadium.
“It’s hard to envision anybody going into Baltimore and winning, or another team going into San Francisco and winning,” Kornegay said. “Some thought, Dallas. Others think Buffalo has a chance to go. Other than that, I just don’t see it.
“I think it’s going to be kind of a chalky playoff, the question being whether they’ll cover or not. It’s hard to envision a team outside the Ravens or 49ers being in Vegas.”
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NFL divisional playoff game-by-game sharp money report
Here are the latest NFL betting odds, as well as insights from Kornegay, on the NFL divisional playoffs.
Houston Texans (11-7, 10-8 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (13-4, 11-6)
- Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
- TV – ESPN/ABC
- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
These two battled in Week 1 in Baltimore, and the Ravens won, 25-9. Both sides recorded 18 first downs; the Texans recorded 268 total yards, Baltimore 265. The visitors turned it over once, the home side had two.
A temperature in the lows 20s is forecast, with sustained 14 mph winds, and have likely affected the drop in this total from a SuperBook opener of 45. It had hit 43 before being bet up a half-tick Wednesday night.
“The total dropping has definitely surprised me,” Kornegay said. “Maybe I’m a little swayed by the extreme weather we saw last weekend, but I don’t think weather will come into play this weekend.
“And I’m a bit surprised due to the way the Houston offense has been clicking. Their defense is OK to good, but I kind of thought this would be a higher scoring game; that 43.5 is kind of low, in my eyes.”
Kornegay will offer more of his weather thoughts below in the Kansas City-Buffalo capsule.
That Houston offense has operated at a 0.389 points-per-play margin over its past three games, the highest efficiency rate of every remaining playoff team in that span. Next is Baltimore, at 0.285.
Plus, Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud has registered 9.5 yards per throw in the span, best among AFC squads; the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, at 8.7, is next.
Re-peruse those past two paragraphs for evidence of why Kornegay believes points will be scored.
“I really love Houston’s mixture of the play calling. They’re mixing it up well. They’ve been running the ball better. They’ve been spreading it out, with a lot of play-action.”
Against the spread as a 7-point favorite or more over the past three seasons, Baltimore’s Jackson is 1-9. Stroud is 6-1 ATS as a dog this season.
Houston has played four outdoor games since Oct. 29, in which it’s 2-2; a 19-16 overtime victory at Tennessee, a 30-6 rain-soaked loss at the Jets, a 30-27 triumph at Cincinnati; and a 15-13 defeat at Carolina.
“Houston is a young team, and I can understand it’s possible that they would struggle outside in 20-degree weather,” Kornegay said. “Offensively, they’ve been playing so well that I still think they’ll be able to put some points on the board.”
More: Ravens vs. Texans odds, props, predictions
Green Bay Packers (10-8, 10-8 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (12-5, 9-8 ATS)
- Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV – FOX
- Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
The Packers have won seven of their past nine games, and QB Jordan Love has been a major catalyst. He has been rewarded kindly, with an extra $5 million in incentives.
Another $1M can be had, for going to the Super Bowl, and another $1M if Green Bay should win Feb. 11 in Vegas.
Among the remaining playoff teams, the Packers’ 0.251 PPP margin over their past three games is best among NFC squads. At -0.041, San Francisco is eighth among the eight divisional-playoff teams.
In yards per pass, Green Bay tops everyone at 10.1 in that span — three different receivers recorded triple-digit-yardage games in those past three tilts. Its 148 average rushing yards is No. 1, as is its defenders’ sack rate of 4.3 per game.
However, the Packers are 4-7 against the Niners since 2012; including 0-4 in the playoffs, the average defeat being 30-20.
“Love and the Packers, to me, look like a team playing with house money,” Kornegay said. “They’re very loose and comfortable. They’re embracing this underdog role. The way Love has matured and improved, with all this playing time, is impressive.
“The Packers are a dangerous team with nothing to lose. They’re very confident, for a young team. But they are facing the best team in the NFL.”
I asked Kornegay, How different are the Niners compared to the Cowboys?
“What happened in Dallas is something that nine out of 10 of us just didn’t see coming. The way Dallas was performing at home, it was surprising to see them get blown out in that venue.
“The Niners … put it this way; they’re coached very well, compared to the Cowboys. The Niners are not going to overlook the Packers. The Packers’ performance captured the 49ers’ attention.”
More: Packers vs. 49ers odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8, 12-6 ATS) at Detroit Lions (13-5, 12-6 ATS)
- Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
- TV – NBC
- Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Tampa’s 32-9 triumph over Philadelphia last weekend should have surprised nobody. Many in the bookmaking business with whom I chatted over the past six weeks saw that disaster coming like an avalanche.
“Yeah, it didn’t really surprise me to see the Eagles lay down like that,” Kornegay said. “You could tell. During the game, a sideline reporter went up and down it, saying, ‘I don’t see too many players who want to be down here.’
“Overall, it felt like they knew they didn’t have it this year, with that kind of mentality. And the Bucs took advantage … [but] I don’t really think the Bucs are that great. Now they’ll oppose a team that really wants to be there and is excited to be there, and is similarly invested in their team and their mission.”
The SuperBook opened this at 6.
“We’re all at 6.5 now,” Kornegay said, “and I won’t be surprised to see it at 7 by game time. It’s a tough spot for the Bucs.”
More: Bucs vs. Lions TD scorer prop picks
Kansas City Chiefs (12-6, 10-8 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (12-6, 8-9-1 ATS)
- Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV – CBS
- Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
This forecast is for the mid-20s, with a 17 mph wind swirling. Kornegay doesn’t believe weather is such a huge factor, unless it’s single digits or a negative wind-chill effect.
“There were plenty of sharps who dismissed that last weekend, keeping that Dolphins-Chiefs total high despite the extreme weather that was clearly gonna happen.”
In its frigid home, Kansas City won, 26-7. A total of 43.5 wasn’t ever threatened to go OVER. In a game that was delayed a day, due to inclement weather, Buffalo beat Pittsburgh, 31-17.
“The Bills really got banged up in that game,” Kornegay said. “Two cornerbacks got hurt, and two linebackers. Their replacements did well, but is that something [KC QB Patrick] Mahomes will exploit?
“Everyone is making a big deal about this being Mahomes’s first road playoff game, and you can’t downplay that. It’s a big difference, especially in a loud venue like Buffalo. The Bills can’t wait to get a piece of the Chiefs, I just don’t know if they have the horses and are healthy enough to pull it off.”
More: Chiefs vs. Bills historical betting trends | Chiefs vs. Bills TD scorer prop picks
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