Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is the favorite on the FanDuel player prop oddsboard to pass for the most yards in the 2023 NFL postseason that begins Saturday.
History has shown that unless a quarterback's team advances to the Super Bowl, he won't likely top the postseason chart in air yards.
Over the past 20 years, 19 QBs who threw for the most postseason yards played in the title game. The only one who didn't was Joe Burrow with a Cincinnati team that reached the AFC final last year. But since the Super Bowl featured a pair of teams with byes, no one got to play in more games than the Bengals star.
In addition to Prescott, Buffalo's Josh Allen, and San Francisco's Brock Purdy are among the favorites this postseason. At the bottom is the Steelers' Mason Rudolph, a third-stringer at the start of the season.
Let's look at which QBs have the best shot at reaching the passing summit, and which ones are overrated and unlikely to do so.
NFL playoff passing yards odds and props: Prescott, Purdy, Allen are postseason favorites
FanDuel Sportsbook offers a unique opportunity to bet on specific NFL player props for this postseason. Here are the top NFL playoff passing yards odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Dak Prescott, DAL: +250
- Brock Purdy, SF: +450
- Josh Allen, BUF: +450
- Lamar Jackson, BAL: +800
- Patrick Mahomes, KC: +900
- Jared Goff, DET: +1200
- Joe Flacco, CLE: +1200
- Tua Tagovailoa, MIA: +1600
- Matthew Stafford, LAR: +1800
- Jalen Hurts, PHI: +2000
- CJ Stroud, HOU: +2500
- Jordan Love, GB: +4000
- Baker Mayfield, TB: +4000
- Mason Rudolph, PIT: +6000
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Our NFL postseason passing leader best bets: Purdy, Prescott, Goff are player prop bets to consider
Here are three QBs to consider as you handicap the playoff passing yard leader prop market.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Purdy had the league's best passer rating and threw for the fifth most yards (despite sitting out the finale) while helping San Francisco earn the top seed and the accompanying bye in the NFC playoffs.
The 49ers have toyed with some of the top teams in the NFC already, so there's good reason to believe his club, which is favored to win the Super Bowl, will reach the title game after falling just short last season.
One thing that should help his cause is that he has three top-flight receivers to target in WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle, who both surpassed 1,000 yards, and speedy playmaker Deebo Samuel. Plus, RB Christian McCaffrey, the league's top rusher, is tied for the team lead with seven TD receptions.
There's not much chance of defenses ganging up on only one of them.
Read: How to bet on the NFL | NFL prop bets
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Have to go with the chalk here.
Prescott, who led the league with 36 touchdown throws and finished third in passing yards, will be guaranteed two home games in the JerryDome -- provided they don't lose in the first round -- and has the league's top receiver in CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys are the league's only unbeaten team at home, and it had lots to do with Prescott's play in the dome, averaging 308.8 yards a game and having 22 of his scoring throws.
If Dallas can sweep those home games against seventh-seeded Green Bay and likely third-seeded Detroit in the divisional round, Prescott will play as many games as Purdy, if not more.
He could follow Burrow's 2022 path and get the yardage title despite failing to advance to the big game.
Wild card action: Packers vs Cowboys odds, props, predictions
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Bettors looking for a semi-longshot can settle on Lions QB Jared Goff as the answer.
He was second in the league in passing yards this season and, like Prescott, gets to play home games indoors.
Although Detroit is only a third seed and is guaranteed just one home game, that's not necessarily bad since Goff passed for more yards on the road than at home, albeit with more attempts.
Unlike most of the QBs in the AFC, Goff doesn't have to worry about playing in awful weather conditions since his only possible road games will be in Dallas' dome and not-so-frosty San Francisco.
Information: Best NFL betting bonuses | Rams vs. Lions odds, props
NFL playoff passing odds to fade: Tagovailoa, Flacco, and Rudolph
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins' left-hander finished atop the yardage chart in the regular season, but he stands only eighth on the FanDuel playoff oddsboard -- and for good reason.
It's largely because of the Dolphins' status as a sixth seed after blowing their seemingly safe three-game lead in the AFC East down the stretch. A division crown would have landed them a second seed and at least two home games.
Instead, Miami will have to open up on Saturday night in Kansas City against the defending Super Bowl champions. What's worse is that the forecast calls for sub-zero temperatures and winds at 16 mph. Good grief!
That's just not what this native of Hawaii is accustomed to.
Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns
One of these days, Flacco's interception issues will rise and bite him in the keister. Or his passing arm.
In his five-game stint as a starter for the Browns, in which they won four en route to clinching the fifth seed, he pitched 13 scoring passes and averaged 323 yards a game.
However, he also had eight INTs. His interception rate of 3.9 percent was worse than what Washington's Sam Howell had (3.4 percent). That's not good since Howell led the league in interceptions.
While Flacco's Cinderella story of coming off the couch late in the season to rescue the Browns is just wonderful, his team's chances of advancing to the AFC title game aren't. At best, Flacco is two-and-done.
Information: Best NFL betting bonuses
Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers Nation, don't do it! Don't be tempted to take a QB who's started only the past three weeks -- all victories -- even though he had some glorious stats, including 9.7 yards a throw and a 74.3 completion percentage.
One of those games was against a Baltimore team that had already clinched the AFC's top seed and rested many key players. The other two, against Cincinnati and Seattle, were against units that ranked 20th or worse in defensive passer rating. Buffalo's defense ranks seventh.
Even more importantly, what are the chances the Steelers advance past the wild card round since they are a 10-point underdog on the road vs. the stampeding Bills?
More action: Steelers vs. Bills odds, props, predictions
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