Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) tends to be a stat-driven award, with players surpassing or getting close to certain records or milestones as the leading contenders. That makes playing time crucial; missing significant time could take someone out of contention.
Justin Jefferson's hamstring injury will cause him to miss at least four games while on the IR. Consequently, his OPOY odds have plummeted at sportsbooks, leaving two players alone atop oddsboards and above the rest of the field.
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Offensive Player of the Year odds
Here are the latest odds for OPOY from the top sports betting sites in the U.S.:
Jefferson opened as the betting favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year at +1000. Four weeks into the year, his odds could be found as short as +500 at FanDuel, tied with Tyreek Hill and behind only Christian McCaffrey.
His odds are now as high as +5000 (via FanDuel) as he heads to the IR. If he comes back and starts catching 10-plus balls for 150-plus yards a week, he might have an outside shot of winning despite missing multiple games, making him a decent longshot.
But if guys like Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill and J'Marr Chase continue to play at a high level, voters will not think twice about Jefferson, no matter what he does when he returns.
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Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill top betting boards for OPOY
Offensive Player of the Year candidates are typically some of the most productive players in the league:
- Jefferson came close to breaking Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yards record when he won last season, as did Cooper Kupp the year before.
- Joining the ultra-exclusive 2,000-plus yards rushing club did the trick for Derrick Henry in 2020.
- Michael Thomas broke the single-season reception record (2019).
- Patrick Mahomes joined the 50-plus touchdowns in a single-season club (2018).
Through Week 5, there is no question who the two most productive offensive players are in the NFL: Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill.
McCaffrey leads the league in total yards per game with 135.6, but Hill is a close second at 133 (Puka Nacua is a distant third with 115.2 YPG). While McCaffrey leads the league in rushing (510 yards; one of three players averaging 100-plus YPG), Hill leads the league in receiving (651 yards). McCaffrey has seven touchdowns; Hill has recorded five.
Both are having incredible seasons and are on pace for well over 2,000 yards from scrimmage. If they maintain their production levels, voters will have a tough time choosing one over the other.
But neither McCaffrey nor Hill have won OPOY yet.
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Offensive Player of the Year odds: Longshots
McCaffrey and Hill are having exceptional seasons, but neither is guaranteed to continue producing at their current rate. McCaffrey has a history of injuries, as does Hill's quarterback, Tua Tagoviola.
So, while it may look like a two-man race for OPOY, there is value in betting on a handful of other players. Why? Because if McCaffrey and/or Hill were to stumble down the stretch, these players could move to the top of oddsboards:
Tua Tagoviola
Tua is on pace to throw for 5,400-plus yards this season. Passing that milestone has been considered award-worthy, but not always. But if he can keep up his current pace, he'll throw for 5,487 yards, which would be a new single-season record.
J'Marr Chase
Chase was the betting favorite to win OPOY at some sportsbooks when the season got underway, but Cincinnati's offensive struggles have led to his odds moving from as low as +1000 to +2500 five weeks into the year.
But we have seen what he can do when the Bengals offense gets on track, like when he had 12 receptions for 141 yards against the Rams and 15 catches for 192 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals.
If performances like those can become the norm for Chase, he'll get some votes no matter how the season plays out for McCaffrey and Hill.
Puka Nacua
Nacua has easily been the biggest surprise of the year, with 46 receptions and 572 yards in his first five games. He's on track for over 1,900 yards, which will certainly put him in the conversation.
But with Cooper Kupp in the lineup, there is a good chance he does not keep that pace up. Only one rookie has ever won OPOY (Earl Campbell, 1978).
Other players worth keeping an eye on include:
- Jalen Hurts
- Stefon Diggs
- D.J. Moore
- A.J. Brown
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Bets to consider:
It is hard to argue against Christian McCaffrey, but if Hill maintains his current pace, he'll become the first player to have 2,000-plus receiving yards in a single season. That would likely push him to the front of the line for many voters.
If you are thinking about taking a flyer on a longer bet, give J'Marr Chase or Tua Tagoviola some serious thought. Chase was considered one of the leading contenders before Cincinnati's slow start. With Tua's current pace, he's bound to win an award or two at the end of the season.
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