Conventional wisdom suggests possibly fading the Atlanta Falcons as a short home favorite over the Houston Texans in NFL Week 5.
The Falcons traveled to London last week and lost to the Jaguars, 23-7, before making another trans-Atlantic flight back home with no bye week. But is there a post-London effect on NFL teams the following week, and do the Jaguars have an advantage in playing in the UK for a second straight game?
We'll try to answer those questions from a sportsbook's perspective to see how international travel factors into betting lines -- and examine how bettors are approaching the second London game of the season on Sunday.
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Do the Jaguars have a competitive advantage staying, playing in London again?
For good reason, London looks upon the Jaguars as its hometown team. Jacksonville has played there more than any other NFL team with 10 total games to date — and one every season dating back to 2013. The Jags are 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS in those London tilts after covering as a 3-point favorite in last week's win against the Falcons at Wembley Stadium.
This week's game against the Bills will take place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which is a scant 12.8 miles away. The Bills will travel more than 3,500 miles on the flight from Buffalo to London.
Do sportsbooks factor travel -- or non-travel in the case of Jacksonville -- into the equation for this week's odds? In the case of BetMGM, the answer is no with the Bills favored by -5.5 over the Jags, and the Falcons back home as a 1.5-point favorite to beat the Texans.
“Teams have gotten better with optimizing travel, even given the long distance to London, (so) the trading team has not made adjustments based on travel,” BetMGM PR Data Analyst John Ewing said. “The trading team has not made adjustments for the Jaguars being there two weeks in a row. The line is based on the matchup between the Bills and Jags.”
Tipico Sportsbook's early action on Bills vs. Jaguars shows bettors unconcerned about London travel impact
From a bettor's perspective, would you be concerned about betting the Bills vs. the Jaguars this weekend? Tipico Sportsbook's early action report on Sunday's game in London revealed the opposite trend.
"While the Jaguars do have the advantage of staying in London for the upcoming game this week, we saw that customers so far have not taken that factor into account when placing their bets," Tipico Sportsbook Analyst Brian Gilmartin said.
The numbers bear that out:
- 97% of moneyline handle is on the Bills, with the odds shifting more in their favor from -175 at open to -250 as of Thursday.
- 94% of the spread handle is currently on Buffalo at -5.5.
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How NFL teams have fared after London games with no bye week
The NFL gives teams the option to take a bye week following games in London. Since 2016, there have been a total of eight games played by teams coming back from London without a bye the following week. Those teams combined to go 4-3-1 ATS and 4-4 SU in their "homecoming" games on no extra rest.
Let's flash back to last year after the Vikings defeated the Saints 28-25 in the first London game of the season on Oct. 2 at Wembley Stadium in London.
This is the smallest of sample sizes, but there's evidence to suggest that neither team was unduly hindered by travel. What happened the following week when the Saints and Vikings returned to play home games without the benefit of a bye week?
- New Orleans beat Seattle, 39-32, and covered as a 5.5-point favorite.
- Seahawks-Saints went Over 45 with 71 points scored.
- New Orleans had its highest scoring output of the season with 39 points.
- Minnesota beat Chicago, 29-22, but narrowly failed to cover as an 8.5-point favorite.
- Bears-Vikings went Over the posted total of 44 with 51 points scored.
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