LAS VEGAS — It’s been a while, but the Wolverine State took the football spotlight a few weeks ago and it might not relinquish center stage in the ensuing few weeks.
The country’s 26th state could pull off an impressive pigskin parlay if the Detroit Lions can match the championship won by the Michigan Wolverines on Jan. 8.
Las Vegas plays host to Super Bowl 58 on Feb. 11, and its two participants will be decided this weekend when the Kansas City Chiefs-Baltimore Ravens and the Detroit Lions-San Francisco 49ers joust in conference title games.
Detroit last won an NFL crown in 1957, after triumphs in 1935, ’52 and ’53. So Michigan came closest to celebrating titles in both collegiate and pro football in the mid-thirties, since the Wolverines won a national championship in 1933.
The possibility of raising champagne flutes, or cans of beer, and toasting both within a few weeks?
At DraftKings, which counts Michigan among the 26 jurisdictions in which it conducts business, action has been heavy on the Lions since Detroit-San Francisco was determined Sunday.
“It has been so far, and it’s going to get heavier,” DraftKings director of race and sports Johnny Avello says. “So I’m excited for that state to have this team in there.
“They just won the national championship in college football, and now they come back and have a chance to win the NFL title. They’ve been through some rough times up there. Maybe this is their time to shine?”
Lions vs. 49ers spread bounces back and forth at DraftKings
DK opened the NFC title game at San Francisco -6.5 on Sunday evening, and soon it went to 7. Lions action bumped it back down to 6.5 by Monday morning, but 49ers’ supporters responded quickly to pump it back to 7.
“It’s bouncing back and forth, between those two numbers,” Avello says. “That tells you there are people who like Niners at 6.5, but once you get to 7 they like the other side. That’s the kind of play we’re seeing so far.”
Which could have situated DraftKings in a novelty position. With such heavy Michigan action, it could limit the number to 5.5 in the Great Lake State and let the market dictate it elsewhere.
(Sports gambling is not legal in California, so it’s a moot point with the Niners.)
“I can tell you,” Avello says, “that everybody in the state of Michigan will probably have a bet on the Lions to win this game on the moneyline.”
As a 7-point dog, say, Detroit’s moneyline would be around +265, or risk $100 to win $265. Live DraftKings odds have Lions and on the moneyline.
“The great part of being in multiple states, yeah, we’re going to be heavy on one side,” Avello says. “But the rest of the country may not see it that way. People say, ‘You’re in Michigan, so do you change the line there differently?’ We do not.
“We put up the fair line, and it’s the same in every jurisdiction … we put it up and let everybody bet it, wherever they may be. We know we’ll be heavy in certain states, but that’s fine.”
I inquired if DK, before its operations began, pondered the likelihood of, say, posting one Lions spread in Michigan and another in Florida or Arizona?
“Never,” he says. “The goal the whole time was to post the same lines.”
The veteran Vegas bookmaker once worked at a Nevada property whose outlets in Las Vegas and Reno, regarding a 49ers game, did post different numbers. Niners action in the northern part of the state was that strong.
“We’d have a 7.5 in the north and a 7 in Vegas,” Avello says. “I remember doing that many years ago, to keep our exposure to a minimum. We knew we’d be extremely heavy on one side, but that was one book.
“With DraftKings being in 26 states, we just let the chips fall where they may.”
More: Read our DraftKings sportsbook app review | 2024 Super Bowl look-ahead lines for all potential matchups | Top 5 NFL betting sites | Best NFL betting promos and bonuses
NFL conference championship games sharp money report
Here's a deeper look at the AFC and NFC championship games, along with insights from Avello and the latest NFL betting odds.
Kansas City Chiefs (13-6, 11-8 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (14-4, 12-6)
- Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
- TV – CBS
- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Early sharp action around the betting market laid Baltimore -3, the opening line. The line got nudged to -3 (-120), and money kept flowing in.
DraftKings went to -3.5 (-105), and action kept coming in. By Tuesday night, it was 3.5 at the usual -110.
“That got pushed off the key number of 3,” Avello says, “whereas last week’s Bills-Chiefs game went to 3 for a really short period of time and never went back to it again.”
Buffalo mostly stayed as a 2.5-point favorite, but Kansas City, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes playing his first true road playoff tilt, won 27-24.
Baltimore had few hiccups in dispatching Houston, 34-10, last Saturday.
“This game here pretty much is at a pretty solid 3.5.”
Mahomes gets another true road postseason tilt.
“Anytime Mahomes is on the field, you’re going to see respect for him on bets,” Avello says. “Six years in the AFC championship game, a couple of Super Bowls … he doesn’t shy away from competition.
“Sure, he’d like to play at home, with the crowd behind him. But being on the road doesn’t matter to him. I think that will probably reflect in the Chiefs’ moneyline taking a bit of money.”
Mark Andrews, the Ravens’ sixth-year tight end out of Oklahoma who was diagnosed with Type-1 diabetes when he was 9, has been sidelined by an ankle injury since Nov. 16, a 34-20 victory over Cincinnati.
Andrews did participate in practice this week. He averages about six targets, 4.5 catches and 54 reception yards a game this season, and has scored six touchdowns.
“I think he’ll play this week,” Avello says. “Would they like to rest him for three weeks, for the Super Bowl? Sure. But I think there’s a good chance he plays.
“But, player to player, who has the better quarterback? Probably the Chiefs. That’s been proven, but Lamar Jackson probably is the MVP of the NFL this year.
“One thing for the Ravens, they’re a very fast team. That’s the difference the Chiefs will see this week, as opposed to the Bills; they’ll see a very fast team” in Baltimore.
More AFC betting action: Chiefs vs. Ravens TD props | Chiefs vs. Ravens SGPs
Detroit Lions (14-5, 13-6 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (13-5, 9-9 ATS)
- Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV – FOX
- Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Christian McCaffrey has been the dynamo that San Francisco expected it would get in 2022 trade with Carolina.
He missed the Niners’ regular-season finale, a 21-20 home defeat to the Rams, in which San Francisco had zero incentive to risk injury to regulars.
Over his past seven games, McCaffrey has run 115 times for 732 yards and seven TDs. Plus, he’s snatched 31 passes for 230 yards and two scores.
This could determine the game, since Detroit featured the No. 2 defense against the run during the season, at 87.7 yards. The Bears were No. 1, at 86.4.
However, in NFL teams’ previous three games, to gauge who’s operating most efficiently right now, the Lions are first at yielding a paltry 82 ground yards per game.
McCaffrey led the NFL with 1,557 regular-season rushing yards, while Detroit’s David Montgomery checked in at seventh, with 1,105 yards.
However, the Iowa State product last ran for triple-digit yardage in Week 10, in a 41-38 victory at the Chargers. That’s 10 games in a row with only double digits, in which he did tally seven TDs.
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who’s getting a head-coaching interview or two, has drawn kudos for how he and Detroit QB Jared Goff navigated that 31-23 win over Tampa Bay last weekend.
Goff went 30-for-43 for 287 yards, with two TDs. He’s got 22 TD passes in his past 12 games, with eight picks. But Detroit’s defense has allowed more than 400 yards of offense to three consecutive foes for the first time this season.
The Lions also have only three giveaways, with 11 takeaways, in their past five games. Can such luck continue on the road?
In his past four games, Deebo Samuel, the Niners’ fifth-year receiver out of South Carolina, has caught 13 passes for 129 yards and a single touchdown. A left-shoulder tweak was exacerbated against Green Bay, against whom he caught two passes and returned one kick.
“I feel pretty confident that Deebo will play,” Avello says. “An MRI came back and showed no significant damage. Deebo Samuel and the 49ers at home are a little bit tougher team than the Bucs, who weren’t projected to win three games this season.
“This is a tough task, to go into foreign territory and pull off a win. You can do it, but you have to play a game in which turnovers are limited and everything is clicking, get some stops on third down, maybe even fourth down. But it is a huge game for the Lions.”
Read more: How Deebo's injury impacts NFC Championship odds | Lions vs. 49ers SGPs | Lions vs. 49ers TD scorer props
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