LAS VEGAS — After meticulous summer math work, digesting certain figures and probabilities, and comparing them to regular season-victory total projections at several sportsbooks, I bought five future wagers July 22.
Only one involved an Over — 8.5 on Fresno State, at +125.
Particulars of it made sense in many ways, which stunned a pal who actually played for the Bulldogs. Quarterback Jake Haener’s eligibility was up, so that was his major issue with Fresno this season.
I, though, believed Mikey Keene, who began his career at UCF, could be more than serviceable. At 5-foot-11 and 198 pounds, perhaps many people, even a Bulldogs alum, might discount him.
He’s fared well, however, and the Dogs are 4-0 for the first time since 2013. One computer predicts they’ll win 10, so I feel good about that risk.
Keene has solid complements around him and a stout defense. We do forecast points, so we’ll dodge the big spread and opt for the Over.
There’s something else to avoid here, so read on.
- NCAAF – Saturday (9/30) @ 10:30 p.m. ET
- Valley Children’s Stadium, Fresno, Calif.
- Line: Fresno State -23, 51.5
Nevada Wolf Pack at No. 25 Fresno State Bulldogs Odds
Our Pick: Over 54 (-110)
In five of their past six meetings, these two have combined to average 61.8 points.
Nevada is fortunate for Kent State, which is 133rd and at the bottom of one valued computer ranking. No. 132 is the Wolf Pack.
And the Bulldogs belted Kent State, 53-10, last weekend in this venue.
The Pack has put up 24 in each of the past two weeks. So we peg a Fresno triumph in the neighborhood of 45-21, making the total the wise option.
Nevada Wolf Pack (0-4, 2-2 ATS)
The Pack is in a very tough spot. All of its offensive metrics rank in the bottom quarter percentile in the country.
On defense it’s much worse, as it falls between 127th and 133rd in every major category.
Fresno is in the top 10 in average points (40.3) and third-down conversions (56.5%), and top 25 in points per play (0.508). It’s 21st in pass frequency (57.1%) and 16th in completion percentage (70.3%).
Nevada’s overall losing streak is 14 games.
When the quarterback (Brandon Lewis, 171 yards) is a squad’s leading rusher, that spells trouble for anyone not named Air Force. Not one of his 107 throws has ended in the end zone, but two have been intercepted; he’s fumbled four times.
At North Texas last weekend, Nevada led 17-0 but yielded 35 consecutive points in the second half.
Jay Norvell’s controversial exit to Colorado State seems to have crippled the Pack program, and second-year coach Ken Wilson — in his first head-coaching stint — doesn’t seem to be the answer.
Nevada at No. 25 Fresno State Full Sportsbook Odds
No. 25 Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0, 3-1 ATS)
With a 151.4 QBR, Keene is the highest-rated quarterback in the Mountain West Conference and top 40 in college football.
Receivers Erik Brooks (28 catches, 13.2-yard average, three TDs) and Jaelen Gill (17, 10.4, 2), who has played at Ohio State and Boston College, are Keene’s main targets. At BC, he registered 1,000 aerial yards.
Elijah Gilliam, a 5-10, 216-pound bowling ball out of Vegas, sets the ground tone with a 4.3-yard average on 58 carries, and two TDs.
Lewis, the Pack QB, might be smart to throw away from Fresno State’s No. 2, junior cornerback Carlton Johnson, who is tied with a gaggle atop the national interceptions chart with three.
In points-per-play margin, Fresno is ninth in the country (0.351) while, at -0.394, Nevada is 126th. That sums up this game perfectly.
Sports Betting Recommendation
No matter what time this kicks off, we like our position. And for a full unit. We have culled solid information and trust the math, computer models and power ratings we employ.
But it’s the final game of the day, and FS1 will feed it to the nation. And that spells danger, as in, Late Night Bail-Out Special stuff. Hawaii home games often give this exotic flavor.
Punters might be easily moved to try to get even at the end of a rough day, or double down, putting every penny of profit into a get-rich-quick scheme.
Avoid both traps. This is a long-run operation, trying to make a profit over the duration of the season. Restricting this play to a simple, single unit is the wisest tack we can suggest.
We do have a bonus option. Heed the second-half line and total, if possible, at halftime, because Nevada is next-to-last in second-half points allowed, at 29, and Fresno is among the top 10 by yielding a meager 4.7 in the final 30 minutes.
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