NBA futures odds: Embiid taking control of MVP race, but will 65-game rule trip him up?

Even before he exploded for 70 points against San Antonio on Monday night, Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid had surpassed Denver counterpart Nikola Jokic as the MVP favorite at BetMGM. 

There’s still a lot of basketball to be played, but the reigning MVP has overcome missing seven games between Dec. 25 and Jan. 12 to put himself in position to collect the Michael Jordan Trophy for a second straight season. 

Defeating Jokic and his Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back on Jan. 16 behind a 41-point, 10-assist performance put him in the driver’s seat, particularly since it came on the heels of a 41-point game against the Rockets after a nine-day absence. 

There’s no way anyone who has watched Embiid play over the last few months can deny that he’s been the most dominant force in the sport. 

However, if you didn’t get on him at the quarter-point when Embiid would’ve paid +700, you’re probably better off passing now or backing another horse. 

Yes, he pulled off a 70-point game against Victor Wembanyama, clearly getting up for the 7-foot-4 rookie to show that he’s the baddest man on the planet. He won a head-to-head duel with Jokic. There’s also that consecutive games with at least 30 points and 10 rebounds streak that hit 16, surpassed only by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s best run in 1972.

The futures market is one where you want to score the best payday and you missed the boat on that with Embiid by a lot. Also, he’s no lock, just the current frontrunner.

NBA MVP futures: Embiid could be foiled by 65-game rule

While Embiid has been amazing and has the 76ers among the league’s top-six record-wise, there are still 40 games remaining. He’s played in 31 of the first 42, and at that pace, he could be denied access to MVP consideration by the league’s new collectively bargained position that a player must appear in 65 games to be eligible. 

Embiid played in just 66 games last season, has never played in more than 68 contests and is a fixture on the injury report even when he suits up, often having to warm up to ensure he’s playing.

Those are facts and not a knock on him. He can count a couple of games in which he plays 15-to-18 minutes and has none of those recorded just yet, but the point is he’ll need to suit up in 80 percent of his games going forward to ensure he can cash in on what he’s rightfully earned. 

The 76ers still have six back-to-backs remaining and 11 situations where they’ll be playing a third game in four nights. It seems logical that he’ll get a few nights off. Philadelphia visits Denver on Saturday night, plays the Heat three times, the Bucks twice and visits Boston, Phoenix, both L.A. teams, Sacramento and Cleveland. 

While that can also be viewed as plenty of opportunities to cement his case, the fact he’s become a much heavier favorite over the last few weeks means there are also many chances to get tripped up by the grind of the season.

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NBA MVP odds: Six realistic top contenders offer value

Here are the latest NBA MVP betting odds:

Let's take a look at some of the players behind Embiid on odds boards who offer value in MVP betting.

Nikola Jokic MVP odds

With that rematch against Embiid on tap this weekend and the Nuggets sporting a similar record, Jokic also has a great chance and is putting up similarly cartoonish numbers. The two-time MVP had 25 points and 19 rebounds in Round 1, and is averaging close to a triple-double (26.1 ppg, 11.9 rpg, 9.1 apg). 

Jokic has played in 43 of 44 games and has put up numbers on par with those that won him the trophy in 2021 and ‘22. Denver ended Boston’s 20-0 run at home on Jan. 19 behind his 34 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists, and he’s already put together plenty of memorable moments this season. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander MVP odds

Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the Thunder near the top of the Western Conference for the first time since 2016, averaging 31.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and career-bests of 6.3 assists and 2.2 steals. He’s the unquestioned leader of a young group taking a huge step forward. If OKC surges to the league’s top record, SGA would get a lot of love.

Luka Doncic MVP odds

By the same rationale, so would Luka Doncic. Although Dallas would have to make a big second-half run to break into the West’s top three, it is having a solid season and right there alongside New Orleans in the race for Southwest Division supremacy.

The Mavs’ star is averaging 33.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 9.3 assists, routinely dominating nightly. My opinion is that he may wear down given all the basketball he’s played due to international duty, but it’s hard to scoff at 10-to-1 odds.

Giannis Antetokounmpo () and Jayson Tatum () MVP odds

Embiid’s 76ers are looking up at the Celtics and Bucks as far as the East’s top record goes. Both Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo have never been more effective and rightfully in the MVP conversation. Tatum has more help given the super team Boston has built, but he’s averaging 27.0 points, 8.4 boards and 4.4 assists to help lead the charge to the NBA’s top mark. 

Best player, best team goes a long way, which leads us to the final two main contenders. Two-time MVP Antetokounmpo missed a game last week and the Bucks lost to Cleveland by 40. With him in the fold, Milwaukee has won a title, beat Philadelphia to 30 wins this season and has put itself in the chase to catch the Celtics for the East’s No. 1 seed. 

Anyone who has watched the Bucks this season knows Damian Lillard hasn’t looked like himself just yet and Khris Middleton has been brought along slowly in his return from injury, so this team may be about to take off. Antetokounmpo, at an awfully tasty 11-to-1 to win MVP, is on pace to play in his most games since 2018-19 and averaging career-bests in scoring (31.2), field goal percentage (60.3 percent) and assists (6.1). 

Kevin Durant MVP odds

One last realistic longshot to consider is Phoenix star Kevin Durant, who at 35 years old has been the driving force in keeping the Suns afloat in a season that hasn’t gone according to plan. He just beat the Bulls on a vintage last-second shot and putting up numbers on par with his best career averages after years of injury-filled seasons in Brooklyn.

Durant is averaging 29.6 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.6 assists while shooting a career-best 46.4 from 3-point range. If the Suns make a run – they’re just five games back of the West-leading Timberwolves – Durant will be a viable candidate and certainly worth some pizza money at 125-to-1.

Bottom Line: Embiid is definitely ahead of the pack, but it’s tough to recommend backing him at close to even money given all the other options, his injury history and the new 65-game rule.