NBA teams conducted business until the break of dawn after the moratorium was lifted on Sunday afternoon, and the free agency action continued into Monday. Among the early news, Klay Thompson's days with Golden State Warriors are over, and he's heading to the Dallas Mavericks. Paul George ended his run playing in his hometown with the Clippers, swapping coasts with a move to the Philadelphia 76ers.
The betting markets have already begun adjusting to the movement, so let’s take a look at what has transpired and offer up some strategies on how to best take advantage.
76ers' odds to win NBA championship tighten with Paul George deal
Upon news of the Paul George deal, BetMGM moved the 76ers from +1600 to +800 to win the NBA title and from +650 to +400 to win the East. Here are updated NBA futures odds from BetMGM.
In addition to adding George on a four-year, $212 million deal, team president Daryl Morey also locked up All-Star guard Tyrese Maxey to a max extension, brought back forward Kelly Oubre on a two-year deal, and added veterans Andre Drummond and Eric Gordon to strengthen the bench.
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Knicks making moves, betting market adjusts
The Knicks have also thrived this offseason, retaining key free agent OG Anunoby and trading a treasure chest of future first-round picks to add Brooklyn’s Mikael Bridges, who won a national championship at Villanova with Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart. Given that forward Julius Randle and center Mitchell Robinson are expected to be 100 percent early in the season, New York will have the luxury of depth as they look to end a championship drought of over 50 years next summer.
The Knicks’ chances to win the East have improved and their title odds at BetMGM moved from +1600 to . The sportsbook reports its highest ticket percentage (28.4) and handle (30.3) among teams to win the East involves New York, making it its biggest liability.
Odds to win NBA's Western Conference:
These are live odds from BetMGM to win the West in 2025.
In the West, the honor of the largest liability at BetMGM goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder, whose handle was 50.5 percent as of Monday morning. That was just before center Isaiah Hartenstein, arguably the top big on the market after a breakout season for the Knicks, officially landed in OKC.
Even though OKC has been heavily bet, the Thunder are a team you may want to make a move on before it makes another shrewd addition, since they have the cap space and draft capital to make a major splash.
The Lakers were looking to add Klay Thompson at a discounted price, with star forward LeBron James reportedly making contact immediately after it became permissible. The Lakers own the highest ticket percentage (16.2%) at BetMGM, which is nothing new for this time of year given the team's proximity to Las Vegas and how much its fans have invested over the years since James joined forces with Anthony Davis.
Despite drafting in the second round Bronny James dominating headlines, L.A.’s top offseason move was Tennessee standout Dalton Knecht, the SEC Player of the Year, with pick No. 17, falling into its lap. Most players on the roster are looking to return, and even though James turned down his player option, he’ll return on a longer deal to be agreed upon sooner than later.
Denver remains the betting favorite in the West despite losing starting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who signed a lucrative four-year deal with Orlando. The Nuggets have the third-highest ticket percentage (10.2) behind the Lakers (10.7) and Celtics (17.6) to win the 2024-25 championship.
Celtics favored to repeat as NBA champs
Boston’s odds moved from +310 to +300 (live at BetMGM) despite the top teams in its Atlantic Division drastically improving. The team’s nucleus returns intact, although Kristaps Porzingis won’t be ready to start the season after undergoing surgery to repair the torn retinaculum in his ankle suffered in the NBA Finals.
Odds-shifting moves to watch
Decisions that remain ahead that may further mold the 2024-25 landscape involve Miami’s Jimmy Butler, Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell, Atlanta’s Trae Young, New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram and Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan Zach LaVine. Milwaukee may find a way to tweak its roster, too, which could involve moving Khris Middleton.
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