Michigan vs. Minnesota odds, props & picks: Wolverines face biggest challenge yet in Big Ten roadie

Michigan (5-0, 1-3-1) travels to Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS) this Saturday Night in a Big Ten battle. 

Michigan is ranked No. 2 for the third consecutive season, and this might be the year the Wolverines finally brea through and at least play for a national championship.

Jim Harbaugh has lost six straight bowl games, two of them national semifinals, but he’s got a real shot to win it all this time. While nothing will be decided until they successfully navigate matchups against Penn State and Ohio State next month, the Wolverines lead the nation in scoring defense (6.0), rank fourth in scoring defense and fourth in point differential (28.4 ppg).

Harbaugh’s team has yet to give up more than seven points in a single game. 

Minnesota will look to end that streak in this battle for the “Little Brown Jug” and has scored 34.5 points per game over the last two games after averaging only 17.0 ppg over its first three. The Gophers have been favored in all but one of their games this season, falling at North Carolina 31-13 as a 7-point underdog back on Sept. 16.

Being nearly a 20-point ‘dog at home is frankly unheard of for a program that has won at least nine games in three of the past four seasons. 

Odds for Michigan vs. Minnesota: Point spread, moneyline, total 

Michigan vs. Minnesota kicks off at 7:30 p.m. EST on Saturday, Oct. 7:

• Michigan -19 @ Minnesota
• 7:30 p.m. Saturday
• Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

Late in the week, Michigan was favored by 19 points after opening up laying 19.5 on the road. Books listed the Wolverines anywhere from -1220 to -1500 on the moneyline, while Minnesota was +805 to pull the upset at home. The total has been bet down to 45.5-46 after opening at 47.5. 

Here are the latest Michigan vs. Minnesota odds and lines at top U.S. sportsbooks: 

Michigan Betting News: On the road again 

This will be the first of two scheduled occasions where the Wolverines will find themselves in opposing stadiums in consecutive weeks. Harbaugh took his team on the road for the first time last week and saw them kick their feet up and grab the remote in Lincoln’s Memorial Stadium, dominating the ‘Huskers 45-7 in their most lopsided conquest of the season.

They’ve won both legs of road back-to-backs on three occasions over the last two seasons and are 9-1 over their last 10 true road games (6-3-1 ATS).  

Michigan led Nebraska 45-0 before its backups surrendered a 74-yard touchdown run to lose the shutout. QB J.J. McCarthy threw a pair of touchdown passes and ran for another, efficiently completing 12 of 16 passes. The Wolverines defense held the then-No. 6 rushing attack in the nation to just 39 yards on 19 carries before turning it over to the backups. Nebraska was nearly shut out for the first time since 1996. 

Minnesota Betting News: Gophers to lean on ground game in upset bid 

Although Minnesota has sputtered at times in transitioning from graduated veteran longtime starter Tanner Morgan to sophomore Athan Kaliakmanis, the team’s rushing attack is as lethal as ever.

True freshman Darius Taylor, P.J. Fleck’s top recruit of his past class, leads the Big Ten with 532 rushing yards, a figure that ranks third nationally. Backup Zach Evans and Sean Tyler, the Western Michigan transfer, give Minnesota plenty of bodies to try and make some inroads against a Wolverines run defense that ranks 12th nationally in yards allowed on the ground (85.6).  

Minnesota hasn’t played Michigan since opening the pandemic-shortened 2020 season at home against them, losing that one 49-24.

The Gophers have a true No.1 receiver in Daniel Jackson, and the rushing attack has been productive, but staying in this game will require Kaliakmanis to continue figuring things out. Minnesota’s QB has thrown four TD passes over the last two games after throwing only one through the first three. Fleck knows his team can’t afford to be one-dimensional if this is going to be competitive come second half. 

• Michigan vs. Minnesota props Michigan 
• QB J.J. McCarthy Rush TD (+240) 
• Team Total: Minnesota Under 13.5 (-130) 

Minnesota’s touchdown total is set at 1.5 with higher juice (-150) than the number provided, so I think you get more bang for your buck riding the team total option given that Fleck isn’t likely to settle for field goals if he’s in position to keep this competitive and likely won’t be attempting them late if the game is out of hand.

On the Michigan side, star RB Blake Corum finding the end zone with his legs is juiced at -270, so banking on McNamara to call his own number at plus money is the better bet. He scored last week and now has seven career rushing TDs. 

Michigan vs. Minnesota Predictions 

The Wolverines were incredibly efficient against Nebraska last week, and Minnesota is unlikely to be competitive enough in the passing game to stay in this one.

A backdoor cover is certainly possible since oddsmakers set this number extremely high, but Harbaugh will have his team ready for this challenge, which, on paper, will be Michigan’s toughest until it faces the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes in November.

Don’t expect the Wolverines to take their foot off the gas. Consider laying the points. 

Pick: Michigan 

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