A bitter in-state rivalry that ended in a post-game fight last season is set for another big game this week when Michigan visits Michigan State in East Lansing for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on NBC. The Wolverines are undefeated, while Michigan State is 2-4 and on a four-game losing streak.
The Spartans' season got off to a solid start with two wins, but they've dropped every game since interim head coach Harlon Barnett took over for Mel Tucker, who was suspended and then fired after a Title-IX investigation.
While the Wolverines have dominated their opponents this season, Michigan has played by far the easiest schedule of any top-five team in the country. The Wolverines have only played two opponents with winning records, and only one of those was a Power Five opponent.
Odds for Michigan vs. Michigan State
Michigan is a heavy favorite in this one, with most sportsbooks posting a spread north of 20 points in favor of the Wolverines. Here are the live odds from the best legal online sportsbooks for this rivalry game.
Michigan betting news
After failing to cover in any of their nonconference games, the Wolverines have covered in three of their last four with a push. It is notable that head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended for the first three games, and Michigan has played much better since his return.
Not a single opponent has scored over 10 points this season, and the offense has put up no less than 30 points in every single game. If we are being honest, though, it is hard to make a real determination of how good Michigan is. They have not played a single ranked opponent and have one of the weakest schedules of any CFP contender so far.
That will change in the last three weeks of the season when Michigan plays Penn State, Maryland and Ohio State. Until then, it is going to be difficult to know if Michigan is truly a National Championship-quality team. Still, the Wolverines need to avoid trap games like this one against Michigan State.
It is worth noting Michigan State has outright won two out of the last three times they were double-digit dogs in this rivalry matchup.
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Michigan State betting news
The Spartans have some talent, especially on defense, but this team finds ways to lose games like that's the goal. MSU played tight with Maryland but committed five turnovers in the loss. Then the Spartans had a fourth-quarter lead and gave up 13 unanswered points to Iowa to lose their fourth game of the season.
Last week may have been the worst, though, when Michigan State gave up a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead lead to lose to Rutgers 27-24. If there was one good thing to take from the game, it was the play of Freshman quarterback Katin Houser in his first career start.
Houser was 18-of-29 for 133 yards and two TDs, and it was worth noting his yardage would have been better but for three long pass plays that drew defensive pass interference on Rutgers. Not only that, it was in very wet, rainy conditions, and Houser had no interceptions.
If he can build on his play against Rutgers, he could help Michigan State keep their game against Michigan close, especially playing at home. The Spartan defense has also been very good this season. Still, one area they need to clean up is special teams after allowing a punt return touchdown to Iowa and a fumbled kickoff return against Rutgers. Plays like these are the difference between Michigan State being 4-2 instead of 2-4.
Michigan vs. Michigan State player props
There are a ton of Michigan vs. Michigan State player prop bets available at FanDuel Sportsbook worth considering.
- J.J. McCarthy 222.5 passing yards over (-114) / under (-114)
- Katin Houser 142.5 passing yards over (-114) / under (-114).
- Roman Wilson 54.5 receiving yards over (-114) / under (-114).
- Tre Mosley 34.5 receiving yards over (-114) / under (-114).
- Blake Corum 88.5 rushing yards over (-114) / under (-114).
- Nathan Carter 44.5 rushing yards over (-114) / under (-114).
- Blake Corum to score 2+ touchdowns (+105)
- Roman Wilson to score a touchdown (-125)
- Nathan Carter to score a touchdown (+210)
- Montorie Foster to score a touchdown (+350)
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans prediction: Wolverines win, but Spartans cover
There are some very notable betting history notes you should know about the Michigan vs. Michigan State rivalry over its recent history.
Since 2000:
- Michigan State has covered the spread 17 times; Michigan has only covered five times, with one push.
- Michigan State has won outright seven times as an underdog.
- Michigan has been the favorite in 17 of the 23 matchups but has only won 12 times in that span.
Michigan fans would say Michigan State is not a rival and that their only rival is Ohio State. Yet the popular opinion in the state of Michigan is that the Wolverines, if given the choice, would choose to beat Ohio State before Michigan State. But they would rather lose to the Buckeyes before losing to the Spartans.
Michigan is simply too good to lose to the Spartans this season; we don't expect a repeat of 2020 when Michigan lost outright as 21.5-point favorites. But we doubt the Wolverines cover a 20-plus point spread here. Michigan State has covered in 13 out of the last 15 games against their in-state rival.
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