February begins on Thursday, so there’s no getting away with saying that the college basketball season is still young. In fact, it’s growing a beard and contemplating a mid-life crisis.
However, it’s still young enough that you can really cash in if you can identify potential surprise teams that could cut down the nets after winning a National Championship inside State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.
To be clear, you won’t find teams currently favored among the top 14 (Purdue, Houston, UConn, Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Auburn, Kansas, Alabama, Duke, Marquette, Creighton, Wisconsin) at BetMGM. Although there are some with friendly odds in there, we’re identifying top longshots to win the men's NCAA Tournament.
March Madness national championship futures odds
Before we get into the sleeper picks, here's a look at the latest odds to win the national title at top-rated sportsbooks:
Best March Madness longshot bets to win national title
Here are our longshots with their latest odds to win it all. Click through the linked odds to be taken to the sportsbook offering them.
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Illinois basketball national championship odds ()
We’re warming up with this one since the Fighting Illini sit just outside that top group odds-wise, but there’s certainly value to be found in a team that could easily wind up one of the top five favorites in a month’s time.
Brad Underwood’s team enters the week tied for third in the Big Ten with Northwestern, trailing only the Badgers and Boilermakers. They’ve survived the absence of star guard Terrence Shannon, who missed a month of action after being charged with rape in Kansas.
Once his six-game suspension ended, he rejoined the rotation and fortified an already deep and talented roster. Shannon, a 6-foot-6 wing who has been All-Big 12 at Texas Tech and All-Big Ten at Illinois last season, had his preliminary hearing regarding the charges delayed until May, so he’ll be part of the equation going forward.
While Shannon was sidelined, Illinois went 4-2, which included a tight loss to top-ranked Purdue. Underwood called his team the “most connected” group he’s ever been associated with. Coming off Saturday’s 70-62 win over Indiana, Illinois is 7-3 over its last 10 entering Tuesday’s visit to slumping Ohio State and has a manageable schedule going forward.
Six-foot-10 senior forward Coleman Hawkins is a future pro who is long, can handle, pass and shoot and is one of the nation’s most versatile bigs since he also defends willingly. Underwood jokingly calls Southern Illinois grad transfer Luka Doncic since he does it all, and Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier is an elite athlete who rounds out the frontcourt and would play a larger role on many other teams.
That’s the beauty of Illinois. Underwood has a lot of size and skill at his disposal, and even many gained confidence receiving additional minutes while Shannon sat. Now that he’s back, Illinois has as much quality depth as anyone and offers great value since it can zoom through its bracket no matter what seed it receives. The Illini are also to reach the Final Four.
Iowa State March Madness title odds ()
We’ll see if the Cyclones are able to bottle Hilton Magic and take it out on the road with them over the next few weeks. They’ve utilized one of the best homecourt advantages in the college game effectively enough to knock off rival Iowa, Houston, Kansas State and most recently, Kansas, who they handled 79-75 on Saturday.
Iowa State is not going to be a secret much longer since it opens the week tied for first place in the win column with Texas Tech and Houston in the loaded Big 12. It doesn’t play again until visiting Baylor on Saturday, which limits the letdown factor following such a landmark win. TJ Otzelberger’s team was ranked seventh of 14 in the Big 12 preseason poll, so few saw their ascent coming.
One thing we can count on is ISU not resting on its laurels since it opened last season 6-2 in conference play only to lose eight of its next 10 games following a home win over a Top-5 team. The Cyclones scored just 41 points in an NCAA Tournament loss to Pitt after surviving Selection Sunday, and can now view last season’s outcome as a cautionary tale.
In point guard Tamin Lipsey and top forward Tre King, Iowa State has leaders who lived through the collapse and can help guide the new group through what’s ahead. Lipsey, now a sophomore, leads the team in points and assists, has a terrific motor and can really shoot it. King, who began his career at Georgetown, teams with 6-foot-10 Robert Jones up front, while UNLV transfer Keshon Gilbert has emerged as a great partner for Lipsey.
The key to a lengthy run in March is a freshman, highly touted reigning Wisconsin Mr. Basketball Milan Momcilovic. At 6-foot-8, he can mix it up inside but can really shoot it, leading the team in all categories related to 3-point shooting. If he’s hot in March, Iowa State won’t be held to 41 points in any game despite its deliberate pace and also offers a nice return at to make the Final Four.
San Diego State national title odds ()
The Aztecs lost three significant pieces off last season’s national runner-up in leading scorer Matt Bradley, center Nathan Mensah, and forward Keshad Johnson, now one of Arizona’s top performers. All were starters, which is why expectations for this current team were understandably lower.
Playing in a loaded Mountain West will sharpen the teeth of the remaining group, so while there isn’t as much depth or talent on the roster, Brian Dutcher’s team has leaders that have been there before leading the way for a team capable of finishing what the historic 2023 squad nearly accomplished.
Guards Lamont Butler, famous for the buzzer-beater heard around the world in a Final Four win over FAU, and Darrion Trammell, now coming off the bench, ensure that Dutcher will have a battle-tested leader as the head of the snake at all times. Jaedon Ledee, last year’s top reserve, is averaging nearly 21 points and nine boards as the Aztecs’ top forward.
There’s no Mensah on this roster – the 7-footer is playing for the NBA’s Hornets – but Elijah Saunders has stepped up as a sophomore, teaming with 6-foot-9 Campbell transfer Jay Pal to offer some rim protection.
SDSU’s top addition, USC transfer Reese Dixon-Waters, has been terrific on the wing alongside Oakland transfer Micah Parrish, who contributed plenty to last season’s Final Four run. There’s enough for the Aztecs to be dangerous. The Aztecs have generous odds on a return trip to the Final Four.
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Texas Tech odds to win NCAA Tournament ()
As mentioned above, the Red Raiders lead the Big 12 and will do so entering February if they can win at TCU on Tuesday. Regardless of what transpires in Fort Worth, a team that was ranked eighth in the Big 12 preseason poll and went 16-16 last season as then-head coach Mark Adams resigned, is relevant again, probably years ahead of schedule.
A 16-3 start has first-year head coach Grant McCasland, hired away from North Texas, at the top of every respectable national Coach of the Year list. Considering he turned the Mean Green around, winning last season’s NIT, the job he’s doing is no fluke.
Coming off Saturday’s 85-84 comeback win at Oklahoma, the Red Raiders are poised to make noise the rest of the way, particularly since they’re undefeated in Lubbock and host Kansas, TCU, Texas and Baylor there before season’s end.
Despite losing top transfer Devan Cambridge the rest of the way due to a knee injury, Texas Tech has plenty of experienced imports making enormous contributions, including point guard Joe Toussaint (West Virginia), forward Darrion Williams (Nevada), center Warren Washington (Arizona State), and shooters Chance McMillan (Grand Canyon) and Kerwin Walton, now in his second season in Lubbock after starting his career at North Carolina.
Those guys make a fabulous supporting cast for star sophomore guard “Pop” Isaacs, the top returnee, who can get any shot he wants, any time he wants. Averaging 17 points per game, he’s ready for a national coming out party. Tech is to reach the Final Four, and will be plenty battle-tested once the NCAA Tournament begins.
New Mexico March Madness odds ()
Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Storm almost made this list if not for its depth issues, but son Richard is much more likely to see his team make a run in March. The Lobos enter the week tied atop the Mountain West in the win column with Utah State after an impressive 89-55 rout of a pretty good Nevada team on Sunday night.
New Mexico had lost nine in a row against the Wolf Pack and hasn’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 2014, but this looks like a special season in Albuquerque. At 18-3, the team has already won more games than it has in six of the last 10 years, and they have another opportunity to open eyes on national television (FS1) when Boise State comes through the Pit on Wednesday.
Although nothing comes easy in the MWC this season, the Lobos look like a team that can utilize the league’s power ranking to their advantage to earn themselves a favorable seed come March. Senior leading scorers Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn, Jr., both averaging 15.6 points per game, have each missed time, allowing other key pieces to emerge and gain confidence.
Unlike many mid-majors, UNM is loaded depth-wise, led by sophomore guard Donovan Dent joining House and Mashburn as a catalyst, transfers Nelly Junior Joseph (Iona) and Mustapha Amzil (Dayton) patrolling the paint and freshmen JT Toppin and Tru Washington making major contributions.
There’s an x-factor here, too, as sixth-year wing Jemarl Baker, Jr., who has played at Kentucky, Arizona and Fresno State, is in the mix and shooting 42 percent from 3-point range. The Lobos are to reach the Final Four.
Colorado basketball odds to win national title ()
Entering the week, there are six schools separated by a single game at the top of a loaded Pac-12. The Buffs are arguably the most dangerous of that group since injuries to the two best players have kept the team from finding their stride.
Senior leader Tristan da Silva, a versatile 6-8 stretch-four, has returned after missing a few games, but the biggest addition is likely to hear his name called first in this summer’s NBA Draft.
Six-foot-8 small forward Cody Williams, kid brother of current OKC standout Jalen Williams, is shooting 52 percent from 3-point range and comes off a brutal 0-for-4 effort in a 78-69 loss at Washington State that should serve as a teachable moment given his talent.
Although he looks like he needs to eat a few cheeseburgers, the lanky Williams looks every bit the nation’s top prospect due to his versatility. If he plays to his potential over the next few months, becoming the top selection will be a no-brainer and Colorado has enough around him to make a significant run.
Point guard K.J. Simpson took it upon himself to keep the Buffs afloat while da Silva and Williams were on the mend and is one of the Pac-12’s top backcourt standouts. Six-foot-6 wing Ja’Vonne Hadley continues to improve and can score at all three levels.
Center Eddie Lampkin, Jr., who played the last three seasons at TCU, holds down the paint, and depth exists in the form of veteran forward Luke O’Brien and capable guard Julian Hammond.
It’s on Tad Boyle to keep this group from underachieving, but he’s got practice time at his disposal before this weekend’s visit to Utah and will have the Arizona and Bay Area schools coming through Boulder in February. These odds are laughable if we’re talking potential. Colorado is to reach the Final Four.
Florida national championship odds ()
The Gators take a three-game win streak into Wednesday’s game at Kentucky, looking to avenge an 87-85 loss in one of January’s most entertaining contests. Florida will have work to do in February to pick up the quality wins necessary to end up on the right side of the bubble since they’re 0-6 in NCAA Quad 1 games according to the NET rankings, but does have Auburn and Alabama coming into Gainesville.
If Florida is able to improve enough to reach the “Big Dance,” it has the arsenal to do significant damage. It ranks eighth nationally in scoring (85.4 ppg) and goes eight-deep in terms of quality talent at Todd Golden’s disposal. Iona import Walter Clayton, Jr. (15.9 ppg) and UC-Riverside transfer Zion Pullin (14.9 ppg) are the team’s top scorers and distributors, excelling on the big stage. Wings Riley Kugel and Will Richard also score in double-figures for a team that pushes pace, but what really extends Florida’s ceiling is its quality size.
Seton Hall transfer Tyrese Samuel is a traditional big and the enforcer (13.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg), but he’s got a lot of help in a number for versatile frontcourt standouts that would play larger roles on other teams if they weren’t all splitting time. 7-foot-1 sophomore Micah Handgloten comes off a 23-point, 17-rebound effort in Saturday’s OT win over Georgia and is just scratching the surface of what he can do.
Six-foot-11 Australian Alex Condon played at the NBA Global Academy and is the team’ top pro prospect despite coming exclusively off the bench. If he settles in, the Gators will really take off. Another freshman, 6-foot-9 Thomas Haugh, has cracked the rotation and produced. If the guards stay healthy, Florida’s best days are yet to come. The Gators are listed at to reach the Final Four.
Oregon men's hoops March Madness odds ()
Dana Altman remains one of the nation’s top coaches even though the Ducks have missed the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons. They used to be a fixture, reached the Sweet 16 in 2021 and have reached an Elite Eight and a Final Four under his watch. Although he’s had to navigate an injury-riddled season, Altman has the Ducks tied with Arizona atop the Pac-12 despite losing to the Wildcats in Eugene on Saturday.
All-Pac-12 center N’Faly Dante just returned from a knee procedure performed after the season opener and looks like himself again with his minutes restrictions all lifted. It’s not hyperbole to call him one of the country’s top big men.
Nate Bittle, a 7-foot top recruit a few seasons ago, played in his first games since mid-November this past week due to a hand injury. A true stretch-five in that he’s got range for days, he’s joined Dante in the starting lineup and helps put together a frontcourt that few, if any, can match up with.
Top recruit Kwame Evans, Jr. has benefited as a result of their absences, as has 6-foot-10 Stetson transfer Mahamadou Diawara, so Oregon is loaded with quality size.
Point guard Jermaine Cousinard leads the team in scoring and assists and has plenty of help alongside him and on the wing in veteran Colorado transfer Keeshawn Barthelemy, former Georgia top scorer Kairo Oquendo, junior wings Jadarian Tracy and Brennan Rigsby, and freshman Jackson Shelstad.
Already the team’s No. 3 scorer, Shelstad (12.4 ppg) is a hometown kid who has a lot of Payton Pritchard in his game. The two are friends who went to the same high school, and it hasn’t taken him long to have a huge impact. He’s a name to know come March. Oregon is to reach the Final Four.
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