Louisville is quietly having one of the best seasons of any team in the country. If not for a big upset loss to Pittsburgh, the Cardinals would be undefeated and in contention for the College Football Playoff. With only one loss, Louisville may still have a chance if they can win out and beat Florida State in the ACC championship game.
Louisville is 5-5 against the spread and has hit the OVER four times and the UNDER six. Miami is 5-5 against the spread this season but only 2-4 ATS in conference games. The Hurricanes are 5-5 over/under for game point totals.
Miami has been terrible in close games at crunch time and has choked a few away. No one will forget the time-management debacle against Georgia Tech when Miami gave the game away by running the ball instead of taking a knee. If Mario Christobal doesn't get things turned around in South Florida, that will be the lowlight of his tenure as the Hurricane head coach.
Live odds for Louisville vs. Miami
Here are the live odds for the moneyline, spread and point total from the top online sportsbooks for Louisville vs. Miami.
Louisville Cardinals betting news
The Cardinals were expected to be solid with a preseason win total set at eight. Louisville has already passed that and still has two games left this season. In reality, looking at their schedule, the Cardinal's only loss was a shocker, and they could easily be undefeated.
Even with the loss, if Louisville can win out they will make the ACC title game and could be in the discussion for the CFP with a 12-1 record and a win over Florida State in the conference championship. The 9-1 record is largely thanks to the Cardinals' offensive attack, specifically the run game.
Jawhar Jordan will likely eclipse 1,000 yards against Miami, and his backfield mate Isaac Geurendo is also having a strong season. Each averages at least 6.4 yards per carry and they've combined for 18 touchdowns on the season. Jack Plummer has been solid at quarterback and, outside of the Pitt game, has been a game manager, keeping Louisville in a position to win.
The Cardinals have won the tight games every time, having not lost any time where the game was within one possession. Jamari Thrash at receiver has been Plummer's go-to target in big moments. Thrash is a dynamic threat with 734 yards receiving and six touchdowns this season.
Aston Gillotte has been a wrecking ball with 10 sacks and three forced fumbles on defense. Meanwhile, defensive back Devin Neal has four interceptions and a fumble recovery to lead the Cardinals in takeaways. They 18 this season as a team.
More college football betting: Best College Football Betting Apps and Sites | College Football Betting Lines, Odds and Spreads
Miami Hurricanes betting news
The Hurricanes have disappointed this season, not solely because of their overall record but because of how they earned it. The loss against Georgia Tech was one of two outright losses where Miami had a spread advantage, and their single-possession loss to rival Florida State last week showed how good they can be at their best, but they still came up short.
Miami has only covered two of their last six games after starting the season 3-1 ATS. Miami can point toward an underperforming defense that has only held one of seven Power-5 opponents under 20 points. The biggest reason for Miami's struggles, though, is quarterback Tyler Van Dyke.
A three-year starter, Van Dyke has regressed mightily this season to the point he lost his job. The injury to Emory Williams means Van Dyke is back as the starter. Unfortunately, he did not perform well when he came in against FSU last week, going 2-of-7 with an interception.
It is pretty simple: Van Dyke has to play better, or Miami will not win against Louisville. The junior quarterback has thrown two more more interceptions in every ACC game he has started. He has not had a turnover-free game since a Week 2 win over Texas A&M.
Louisville vs. Miami player prop bets at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jack Plummer props
- 217.5 passing yards OVER (-114) / UNDER (-114)
- 1.5 passing touchdowns OVER (+154) / UNDER (-210)
Jamari Thrash props
- 64.5 receiving yards OVER (-114) / UNDER (-114)
Jacolby George props
- 48.5 receiving yards OVER (-114) / UNDER (-114)
Jawhar Jordan props
- 82.5 rushing yards OVER (-114) / UNDER (-114)
Louisville vs. Miami prediction: Louisville stays on track to meet FSU in ACC title game
This pick may be different if Emory Williams were healthy. Still, with Van Dyke back at quarterback for the Hurricanes, Louisville has to be salivating at the chance to take advantage of the turnover-prone QB. Louisville has a ton to play for and will come out for this game fired up, knowing what is on the line as two wins starting this week get them into the ACC Championship Game.
Pick: Louisville
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