After 32 years of football without a playoff win, the Lions now find themselves within one win of going to the Super Bowl thanks to a reinvigorated Jared Goff. To do so, they’ll have to get through the NFC favorites San Francisco 49ers and QB Brock Purdy, who was recently named an MVP finalist.
QB play is at the forefront of this Sunday’s NFC Championship game, and with matchup quickly approaching, we’re looking at the best QB props for Lions vs. 49ers.
Lions vs. 49ers NFC Championship QB prop odds
Before we get into our picks, here are the latest NFC Championship Game player props for Jared Goff:
And here are the props for Brock Purdy:
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Best NFC Championship Game QB prop picks
Jared Goff OVER passing yards
Despite the Lions being one of the league’s more balanced offenses, Goff hasn’t thrown for fewer than 255 passing yards in six straight games. In that time span, the lowest number of passing attempts he's had is 27, and he finished with 277 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions against the Rams in the wild card round. On Sunday, he’ll face a defense that on paper is one of the best in the league.
However, they didn’t face many dynamic passing attacks at all this season. The 49ers thrived on creating pressure and forcing QBs into mistakes. They finished seventh on the year with 48 sacks in total. That will be tough to do against the Lions’ offense, as it thrives on getting the ball out quickly. Among starting QBs, Goff was one of the best at getting the ball out, averaging 2.3 seconds between the snap and firing the ball.
Additionally, the 49ers were seventh in yards allowed to tight ends, surrendering 1,064. Lions’ tight end Sam LaPorta is one of the biggest weapons in Detroit’s passing attack, which should also help a great deal in Goff covering this line. He finished the season with 86 receptions, 889 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. That will surely come into play in this matchup.
Read more: Lions vs. 49ers betting preview | NFC Championship RB props | NFC Championship TD scorer prop picks
Brock purdy OVER passing yards
The Lions owned one of the league’s worst passing defenses all year. They were sixth worst in yards allowed this season (247.4), and that hasn’t changed in the playoffs. In two playoff games, they allowed Matt Stafford and Baker Mayfield to throw for 716 yards.
However, their run defense continues to be stout. They finished the season second in rushing yards allowed, only giving up 88.8 yards to opposing rushing attacks. Fortunately for them, that has continued in the playoffs, as they are only allowing an average 78.5 rushing yards on the ground.
Christian McCaffrey is an integral piece of what the 49ers want to do offensively. If the Lions can tame San Francisco’s star running back, the 49ers will be forced to go to the air more than they would like to. An influx of attempts against one of the league’s worst passing defenses would certainly help Purdy cover this line.
Brock Purdy 3+ passing TDs (+194)
Usually, the 49ers rely on the ground game to punch in touchdowns in short yardage distance, but that option may be removed in this contest given how stout the Lions are against the rush. Fortunately for Purdy, the Lions’ defense has still yet to figure out how to stop teams who go to the air.
Detroit finished near the bottom of the league in sacks, only generating 41 in their 2023-24 campaign. The lack of a consistent pass rush without a doubt played a role in them finishing in the top six in passing touchdowns allowed with 28 total. In the playoffs, they allowed an additional five (two to Stafford, and three to Mayfield). At +194, this is worth taking a chance on.
The 49ers’ offensive creativity could lead to an easy shuffle pass TD or two in the red zone, where Detroit also struggles. They finished the season the fourth worst stopping teams inside the 20, allowing opponents to score touchdowns 64.41% of the time.
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